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So, is any precip going to move due east like the models were showing, or are we stuck watching it continue to reform over the S. Tug and North Country?

That's been another standard with these dying synoptic systems this season. The echoes move all over the place in different random directions...and you sit here wondering which one is going to hit you. :P 

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Just some figures from last lake event. Roc recieved .28 liquid and recieved 7.4 inches. Thats about 25 to 1 ratio. I have seen higher than that in tea kettle set ups. 30 to 1 or more. Pure air. Can literally blow off 3 or 4 inches from car. It can also be 0 out and any sun at all it evaporates. Doesn't melt just sublimates.

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1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Just some figures from last lake event. Roc recieved .28 liquid and recieved 7.4 inches. Thats about 25 to 1 ratio. I have seen higher than that in tea kettle set ups. 30 to 1 or more. Pure air. Can literally blow off 3 or 4 inches from car.

Use your leaf blower instead of a shovel, lol.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

It went from whiffing us to the south to just about whiffing us to the north. lol

Next time a system comes into WPA/WNY, where there isn't any strong support for coastal redevelopment, remember this system...models just don't do well with this scenario, for whatever reason...

...perhaps a research project could tease out the reason(s), and help future modeling.

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15 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Use your leaf blower instead of a shovel, lol.

For sure! I worked a job for a while that involved cleaning snow off cars and around them in the resident parking lot. The leaf blower made the job so much easier for the fluff events...as long as the wind wasn't blowing! :) 

6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Next time a system comes into WPA/WNY, where there isn't any strong support for coastal redevelopment, remember this system...models just don't do well with this scenario, for whatever reason...

...perhaps a research project could tease out the reason(s), and help future modeling.

For sure. You were right on with your call. I sensed it might be a "bust" as I observed reports of the dry slots out in the midwest and watched the precip zooming northward. It went even farther north than my pessimistic call! lol

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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

We definitely got 3" thats for sure so the snow that fell must have been damn heavy but I was in Utica so I really dont know.

It dumped for a couple hours during the early afternoon...most of us in this area picked up about 4 or so inches during that. Then the dreaded dry slot moved through, and since then, it's been snow showery with sleet and grainy snow mixed in.

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********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION                TOTAL      TIME/DATE  COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL       MEASURED
                     (inches)

NEW YORK

...Broome County...
  Binghamton              2.2   645 PM  1/26  Official NWS Obs
  Endwell                 2.0   300 PM  1/26  NWS Employee
  3 SE Chenango Forks     1.9   245 PM  1/26  CoCoRaHS
  Nineveh                 1.7   350 PM  1/26  Trained Spotter
  2 S Vestal              1.0  1100 AM  1/26  NWS Employee

...Cayuga County...
  1 WNW Levanna           1.7  1210 PM  1/26  sleet mixed in

...Chemung County...
  Elmira                  1.0   220 PM  1/26  Mixed with sleet

...Madison County...
  Oneida                  4.0   425 PM  1/26  Trained Spotter
  Chittenango             3.0   701 PM  1/26  Trained Spotter

...Oneida County...
  Lee                     6.0   540 PM  1/26  Social Media
  Holland Patent          4.0   502 PM  1/26  Trained Spotter
  Whitesboro              4.0   453 PM  1/26  Social Media
  Utica                   3.8   530 PM  1/26  Social Media
  Paris                   3.2   553 PM  1/26  Trained Spotter
  Deerfield               3.0   357 PM  1/26  Social Media

...Onondaga County...
  Brewerton               4.2   500 PM  1/26  CoCoRaHS
  Marcellus               3.5   312 PM  1/26  Social Media
  Baldwinsville           3.0   347 PM  1/26  Broadcast Media
  Syracuse                2.6   500 PM  1/26  Local Official

...Otsego County...
  Unadilla                3.3   400 PM  1/26  Elevation 1500`
  Oneonta                 3.0   630 PM  1/26  Elevation 1440`

...Sullivan County...
  3 NE North Branch       2.0   550 PM  1/26  Co-Op Observer

...Tioga County...
  Tioga Terrace           2.5   335 PM  1/26  Trained Spotter
  Apalachin               1.5   230 PM  1/26  raining now

...Tompkins County...
  Newfield                0.9   430 PM  1/26  Elevation 1850`


The 4.2 inches at Brewerton is my measurement.


 

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Then once those -20C temps start to cross the 40 degree Lake, we should see some nice squalls the rest of the week so at least we're seeing some snow, lol, and not what we experienced in December!

This should be interesting come Thurs-Fri-Sat as thats a serious through that drops into the Northeast!  If that doesn't get LO going then nothing will, lol!

500hv.conus.png

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7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

As soon as the 850LP moves to our East we will see some more enhanced snshwr's which should drop another 1-3" as the West end of the Lake looks primed and ready to go so we'll see later tonight.

Its never a good thing when the 850LP is directly overhead like it is but once it passes, its game on once again!

850mb.gif?1611712786203

Here’s some nice roll convection setting up in the wake of that 850, albeit on a much longer fetch.  Still bodes well for us. 
 

1264FF69-3FBB-48CD-8F7F-21FD436E758A.thumb.gif.13d36dc4057c9e6b5c9ca6517a1cec40.gif

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Yeah, things can get interesting once it passes for sure so don't be surprised if you wake up to a few to several more fluffy inches to add to the building glacier! 

 

1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I just measured and melted it. 4.5" snow and 0.43" liquid. So that's right about 10:1.

Interesting as it seemed alot more fluffy to me!

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29 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Yeah, things can get interesting once it passes for sure so don't be surprised if you wake up to a few to several more fluffy inches to add to the building glacier! 

 

Interesting as it seemed alot more fluffy to me!

I snowblowed and I could tell it was heavier than standard lake effect. Not "wet" but not lake fluff... So 10 or 11 :1 makes sense to me.

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