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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Gotta like the chances with the persistence up top, despite the Pac doing its best to eff it all up.

Now if you or @psuhoffmanwouldn't mind, could you explain the concept of the "fast pac", and what we need to, I guess...slow it down? And the blocking regime that looks to continue...how does that interact with the pac to make things more favorable?

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Quick question: can anyone actually remember the last sustained good North Pacific pattern?  So far this year it has been the poop on our shoe.  It was a raging fire last year and also the year before that.  I know the first weak of January 2018 was very cold here so I am presuming we had a good Pacific then, but can't remember anything else since 2013 - 2014.

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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

what we need to, I guess...slow it down

Several options

1. Slightly reduce solar output.

2. Slightly increase the earth's orbital distance.

3. Cause the collapse of industrial civilization and wait a few centuries.

Seriously, there are smart people who feel that the consistently fast Pac jet is a consequence of the "elephant in the room which shall not be discussed in this thread".  Which should make your blood run cold (or hot) because it might mean that we will be stuck with it for the foreseeable future.  Furthermore it preferentially suck in North America because it causes all the cold air to stick to Eurasia and floods us with Pac puke.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Block is exerting a lot more pressure this run. Might be a better solution despite split but it’s gonna be close. Cold press coming but that NS feature wrecked the airmass in front first. Will have to get in just in time if it works. 

Ha, was coming to say the same thing.  We just need the cold press to get going quicker.  That Nrn Vort irritates my life.

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@Ji 2 ways to look at this...

1. Models are all over which does decrease confidence in a specific solution. Not that there should be any at this range. 

2.  The gfs and euro take radically different progressions and both end up snowing on you. That is indicative of the potential this blocking regime creates. 

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That energy is digging west in response to the pac ridge and it’s going to try to cut...but look at the blocking and confluence in its way and there is a lot of cold in front. Let’s see how this plays out...
 
The high should hold right? Thats why we pay big bucks for blocking
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