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January Long Range Disco Thread

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2 minutes ago, flsch22 said:

is the control run the same as the mean?

No. The mean is the average of all the members.  The control is a member that has the same input as the op but run at a lower resolution.  

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I just want to see some improvement on HH GFS for next week.  Not expecting a SECS just a tick in the right direction. 

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Extended blocking is a possibility. 

MSLP forecasts for February-April from this month's update to the @CopernicusECMWF seasonal suite. Some suggestion of negative NAO lasting into March. Note that JMA, Météo-France, NCEP & UKMO have a weaker SSW signal because they are time-lagged ensembles.
 
 
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@SimonLeeWx
Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability of a major SSW, versus 100% from SEAS5. Very different tropospheric forecasts likely a result of this!
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13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

The member view is getting much 'bluer' with each run... several nice hits in there now:

1610539200-KdqvznCp838.png

 

I will go out on a limb and say that this is our first real snow threat, for SE of I-95. I will probably get burned

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is 3 days in a row the Euro has been sniffing something out on the 21st.

I can't wait to get this threat to the other thread!  We need something to track in the short range!!

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DT's take on the GEFS earlier today. Interesting seeing the EPS flip-flop with the GEFS as being the coolest/most wintry ensemble now as well. 

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30 minutes ago, frd said:

Extended blocking is a possibility. 

MSLP forecasts for February-April from this month's update to the @CopernicusECMWF seasonal suite. Some suggestion of negative NAO lasting into March. Note that JMA, Météo-France, NCEP & UKMO have a weaker SSW signal because they are time-lagged ensembles.
 
 
Image
@SimonLeeWx
Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability of a major SSW, versus 100% from SEAS5. Very different tropospheric forecasts likely a result of this!

Still no sign of blocking breaking down.  But it has to actually help at some point lol. My guess if it holds i through early Feb it will. Kinda hard to run a block through Jan 20-Feb 10 and not snow. That  would be something 

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HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.

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HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.
Euro worked cause it came in early enough to interact with some hp/cad. Gfs is a few days after

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6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.

One major difference is how they handle the flow in Canada. The euro has a SW way up north out of the way while the GFS digs that further south just north of the lakes which impacts the flow over the US. Where the euro has a high over the top the gfs has a low creating a weakness for the storm to cut because of how they handle that feature. 

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Just now, Ji said:

Euro worked cause it came in early enough to interact with some hp/cad. Gfs is a few days after

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, even with the terrible track on the GFS it's still ice to drizzle to dry slot. Shows you what a block can do.  Still in the game. Big threat window is still open imo. 

 

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49 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I just want to see some improvement on HH GFS for next week.  Not expecting a SECS just a tick in the right direction. 

Happy?

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One major difference is how they handle the flow in Canada. The euro has a SW way up north out of the way while the GFS digs that further south just north of the lakes which impacts the flow over the US. Where the euro has a high over the top the gfs has a low creating a weakness for the storm to cut because of how they handle that feature. 

Does the storm really cut though? The blocking overtop pretty much keeps it on a west to east trejectory once it forms in the midwest. Just a little too far north from the get go to do us any good. If that low is in kentucky instead of Indiana/ohio we would get a transfer along the nc/va coast which could possibly put us in the game we would also most likely get a nice front end thump. Lots of options still on the table. 

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I was wrong the euro digs it south not north. I was looking at different SWs. At 120 the gfs/euro are similar. Then they diverge...both have a SW coming into AK. The GFS amplifies it and it moves south east ending up north of the lakes wrecking the flow. Plus the southern end of the trough cuts off and gets stuck in the southwest. The euro dives that AK low south and phases with the southern SW and they come east with a high over the top where the low is on the gfs. Pretty major progression differences for only 120 out. 

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6 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Does the storm really cut though? The blocking overtop pretty much keeps it on a west to east trejectory once it forms in the midwest. Just a little too far north from the get go to do us any good. If that low is in kentucky instead of Indiana/ohio we would get a transfer along the nc/va coast which could possibly put us in the game. Lots of options still on the table. 

It starts in the TX panhandle and gets to Columbus before being stopped by the blocking. We can call it whatever, it’s not a pure cutter though. But it’s no good lol. But it took a lot going wrong to get that...it wouldn’t take much to see a better solution. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It certainly is that 

I don’t hate this gfs run. Absolutely beautiful look to the significant longwave features. Perfect NAO block and the epo ridge breaks so much so it cuts off into a Rex block north of AK which allows a vortex to cut south of Ak and pumps a PNA. I would rather see good things from large scale features driving the pattern the model is more likely to get right then details of discreet SWs flying around in the flow.  Give me that progression and I’ll take my chances something works out. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t hate this gfs run. Absolutely beautiful look to the significant longwave features. Perfect NAO block and the epo ridge breaks so much so it cuts off into a Rex block north of AK which allows a vortex to cut south of Ak and pumps a PNA. I would rather see good things from large scale features driving the pattern the model is more likely to get right then details of discreet SWs flying around in the flow.  Give me that progression and I’ll take my chances something works out. 

Is it just me or are the models really flip-flopping on that EPO ridge?  Seems like every other run its either gone or raging.

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52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It starts in the TX panhandle and gets to Columbus before being stopped by the blocking. We can call it whatever, it’s not a pure cutter though. But it’s no good lol. But it took a lot going wrong to get that...it wouldn’t take much to see a better solution. 

It is an evolving situation.B)

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Fwiw, extended GEFS shifts the pesky SE/mid south ridge westward by months end, with a continued very favorable look up top. Pretty good outcome heading into Feb if this happens.

1611964800-zQPVbNpjhmc.png

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw, extended GEFS shifts the pesky SE/mid south ridge westward by months end, with a continued very favorable look up top. Pretty good outcome heading into Feb if this happens.

1611964800-zQPVbNpjhmc.png

Yeah.  Great to see that the -NAO continues for the foreseeable future.  

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The period around the 26th seems the most favorable of all the hypothetical waves were watching.  

I remember you posting something similar in Jan 2016 about which period to key on.  :snowman:

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