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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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FWIW.  

18z Nam Vs GFS.

Still a border line system. 

namconus_z500_vort_us_41.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_9.png

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png

 

Nam retains some of that energy in southern Canada. 

More of occluded frontal boundary. May or may not have the merit behind it to dig a good slp. Further east development. Granted nam shows slp in MO, MS, NO.

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4 minutes ago, FLweather said:

FWIW.  

18z Nam Vs GFS.

Still a border line system. 

namconus_z500_vort_us_41.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_9.png

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png

 

Nam retains some of that energy in southern Canada. 

More of occluded frontal boundary. May or may not have the merit behind it to dig a good slp. Further east development. Granted nam shows slp in MO, MS, NO.

It's the NAM at 84 hours...

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's the NAM at 84 hours...

True.:lol::D:raining:

 

But it's the gfs at 96, 108 324 hour

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23 minutes ago, FLweather said:

True.:lol::D:raining:

 

But it's the gfs at 96, 108 324 hour

True that! It will be interesting to see how it plays out on the NAM the next few days when it gets closer to range. 

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15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

True that! It will be interesting to see how it plays out on the NAM the next few days when it gets closer to range. 

 

11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I'm ready to get Name'd!!

 

I'm rooting for yall.  I really am.

Long long time over due.

Considering how the globals have been... I've got more merit on short range. Globals have been  blah.

 

 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

Euro follows up the weekend storm with a classic NW Gulf to NE Gulf Miller A winter storm, though it goes negative tilt with the wave and warms inland

nqjUjOT.gif

VA and DC get hammered and its a nice system for central NC but temps are really marginal 

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34 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z Euro is a hit again early next week with the 2nd storm from central LA to W NC

3mF7TUq.gif

Someone is going to have an epic meltdown if they get outdone by Baton Rouge. 

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GSP still honking on both systems in this afternoon's AFD

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Monday: No significant changes in the overall
thinking for the Thursday night into Friday winter storm. A strong
upper low at 500 mb will likely pass just to our south Thursday
evening into Friday. A leading surface low pressure system will
slowly strengthen Thursday night before more rapidly strengthening
into Friday thanks to a stronger baroclinic zone near the coast.
Steady moisture advection first off the Gulf of Mexico transitioning
to off the of Atlantic combined with deep lift (strong isentropic
lift at lower levels and large scale ascent aloft) should support at
least moderate precipitation at times, possibly with periods of
heavy precipitation during the best overlap between forcing and
moisture Thursday night into early Friday. Temperature profiles
should support mostly snow across the mountains and possibly into
the I-40 corridor with a transition zone probably setting up between
roughly the I-40 and I-85 corridors outside of the mountains, with
mainly rain south of I-85. That being said, the latest EC showed a
jogged a bit north with the upper low in its latest run, which would
support warmer profiles and a bit more in the way of liquid
precipitation should this trend continue. A brief period of
northwest flow snow showers are possible in the storms wake late
Friday or Friday night. High pressure will build in this weekend
with mostly sunny skies and below normal temperatures. Another
colder storm may be on the horizon for early next week.
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55 minutes ago, griteater said:

Impressive look developing at the end on the EPS Mean here with heavy west based -NAO via Davis Strait ridging and deep blues off the Canadian Maritimes / and removal of Gulf of Alaska Low (Jan 12-19)

z8UGhSk.gif

This. This. This. There is nothing better for an active southern winter   :wub:  

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12 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

You still in Fountain Inn ?

Yep, and I’m prepared for heartbreak imby Friday  :lol:  I will drive to tr and play if I have to 

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56 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well....I got my heart broken last Friday night :P so I am due a better Friday this week.  

I don't know man, you guys have had PLENTY of fun over the past few years, need to let some others experience it for a change. Like maybe my Gamecocks...:(

Kinda like how the mtns need to share their snow with the rest of us!

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Just now, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I don't know man, you guys have had PLENTY of fun over the past few years, need to let some others experience it for a change. Like maybe my Gamecocks...:(

Kinda like how the mtns need to share their snow with the rest of us!

#shanetrain #fail

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4 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I don't know man, you guys have had PLENTY of fun over the past few years, need to let some others experience it for a change. Like maybe my Gamecocks...:(

Kinda like how the mtns need to share their snow with the rest of us!

That’s what I’ve been saying about the west and the winters they’ve experienced the last few years. Maybe you’re on to something.  If OSU can finally beat us maybe be we can finally get a Miller A in the middle of January :D.  Best look over the next 10-14 days we seen in several years.  

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8 hours ago, griteater said:

12z Euro is a hit again early next week with the 2nd storm from central LA to W NC

3mF7TUq.gif

One of these days we're going to get the nice pretty 32 surface line in to South Carolina. 

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