• Member Statistics

    16,739
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Bluewater Performance
    Newest Member
    Bluewater Performance
    Joined
jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

This is the craziest thing I've seen.  (well, not really since I've lived in central NC my whole life).  
Local meteorologists must be going crazy....  
You also have to remember that most of these model outputs assume 10:1 and combine sleet/snow, etc...  
Looking at soundings, it really doesn't cool off enough until the end, and then barely if that.  

It seems highly unlikely that what the latest GFS is spitting out will verify for middle Tennessee, so I’m having trouble being sold on this for our side of the Apps.  I might get 1” at best.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Ukie still looks promising for the weekend

sn10_024h.us_ma (3).png

Need this to trend south by ~100m.  Just a 20mile per day shift will do it.  B)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

Somebody in the Raleigh area needs to start the thread.  Pronto.

Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs.  Let's see who bites where.  Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs.  Let's who bites where.  Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation 

If the 12z Euro got on board, a thread would make sense maybe.  Otherwise, I’m thinking that the GFS has been hacked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

If the 12z Euro got on board, a thread would make sense maybe.  Otherwise, I’m thinking that the GFS has been hacked.

Russians? I knew it!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs.  Let's see who bites where.  Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation 

If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard 

This is an event where we could be averaging close to 10:1, especially as 850s cool. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was not the nail in the coffin EURO run many were expecting. This thing officially has legs. Every model has trended better since yesterday or at least stayed the same in CMC and V16’s case. Trying hard not to get at least a little excited 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS has 90-100% for 1"+ in Raleigh and 70-80% for 3" plus. If I was forced to make a call now, I would say something along the lines of 1-3" for Raleigh right now

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That was not the nail in the coffin EURO run many were expecting. This thing officially has legs. Every model has trended better since yesterday or at least stayed the same in CMC and V16’s case. Trying hard not to get at least a little excited 

Agree,how many times have we watched the exact opposite happen as quickly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets see what the Euro has to offer for this weekend. It has shown wintry precip for the past 4 or 5 runs in a row for the 40 corridor to the northern mountains. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love the mountains and I like the people who live there.  But I just want someone in this thread who lives below 1,000 feet to get popped with half a foot of snow this week.  It doesn’t have to be me.  It’s just that we’ve been so snow starved and I want to experience childlike giddiness through pictures.  I’ll settle for vicarious joy.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.