Cary67 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baum said: FWIW...looks like the Canadian isn't far off from my Cape Girardeau-Indy- Toledo track. No meteorology involved ;gut feeling,wishcasting, and over 40 years of pure weenieism is all I bring to the table. Unfortunaetly, no cold air to be had. Track is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Watch out for a couple things 1) possibility of a thump of snow on the leading edge 2) the wave immediately following behind. Has a shot to be a little consolation somewhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Our snow from overnight has now completely washed away, back to the same piles we had before the snow. Not that it was unexpected, but still never fun to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 My computer is trash at saving images but wow seeing how far south the UKMET is is quite concerning. GFS and CMC is showing near a quarter to half inch of ice from some across SE Michigan. Could be a big problem come Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 The chance of siggy ice here is decreasing although siggy ice would be really bad here because: 1. gusty winds of 35 mph 2. weakened and damaged trees from the derecho over 4.5 months ago. If we do get any siggy ice, I doubt the power outages will be as long lasting as from the derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Our snow from overnight has now completely washed away, back to the same piles we had before the snow. Not that it was unexpected, but still never fun to see. Grass is showing but we are going to have some snow survive here. I was a bit concerned it wouldn't make it but temps are starting to drop and will be back below freezing this afternoon. I think a few things helped. One, the cold ground really didn't allow melting from below. Two, although temps/dews spiked into the upper 30s, it wasn't 40+ which some guidance had been hinting at (perhaps the snowcover actually helped to mute the warmup a bit... who knows). Three, there was a layer of ice on top of the snow to help slow the melting. I think the last one is a tricky balance though because if you get like 2" of rain, that is going to do a number on a small snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Grass is showing but we are going to have some snow survive here. I was a bit concerned it wouldn't make it but temps are starting to drop and will be back below freezing this afternoon. I think a few things helped. One, the cold ground really didn't allow melting from below. Two, although temps/dews spiked into the upper 30s, it wasn't 40+ which some guidance had been hinting at (perhaps the snowcover actually helped to mute the warmup a bit... who knows). Three, there was a layer of ice on top of the snow to help slow the melting. I think the last one is a tricky balance though because if you get like 2" of rain, that is going to do a number on a small snowcover. how much snow did you end up with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: how much snow did you end up with? Just a couple inches. I wonder if the severe lack of snow around here this winter actually paid off with the ground/soil temps in this instance. They were able to get nice and cold since no snow was there to insulate. Before this system I had bare ground like every day except for one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Just a couple inches. I wonder if the severe lack of snow around here this winter actually paid off with the ground/soil temps in this instance. They were able to get nice and cold since no snow was there to insulate. Before this system I had bare ground like every day except for one. Very interesting that you bring that up, because I was noticing the opposite here. As soon as It got warm enough for the snow to melt I noticed the ground sucking it up, especially muddy areas. I was thinking, it was just below freezing for several days and now it's sucking it up like a sponge what the heck. But it was probably because every time we have got a cold blast in this mild December we had snow insulating the ground. Even this morning, snow on the grass melted before snow on the roof tops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 12z UKMET continues its trend of adjusting the vort max southeast 12z run (valid friday night) 0z run (same timeframe) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Watch out for a couple things 1) possibility of a thump of snow on the leading edge 2) the wave immediately following behind. Has a shot to be a little consolation somewhere. I noticed the canadian hinting at a small intense band of snow with some trailing energy from Friday/saturday system. Its still there, so could be a nice surprise for some areas that haven't seen much snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 I'm probably going to be the only one who cares but someone with more knowledge of how to read the models can chime in. Noticing it now appears the Canadian and now the Euro keeping things at or below freezing for my area while it's raining for most of the duration of the event. Looks like temps will be in the low 30's so ice accretion won't be at its most efficient, but not getting above freezing would not be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Not completely sold yet but there's a scenario where the heaviest band of freezing rain actually happens to my south on Friday... A farther south track introduces the possibility of other precip types lasting longer. Also, a farther south track results in a slightly more onshore component to the winds locally off of a still relatively mild Lake Michigan, and the question is whether I'd be far enough inland to avoid that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said: I'm probably going to be the only one who cares but someone with more knowledge of how to read the models can chime in. Noticing it now appears the Canadian and now the Euro keeping things at or below freezing for my area while it's raining for most of the duration of the event. Looks like temps will be in the low 30's so ice accretion won't be at its most efficient, but not getting above freezing would not be fun. The Canadian was the only model that showed snow backing into Southeast Michigan on Christmas, and the far east side of the state ended up getting 3 to 6". And per this thread the Canadian was also the winner of this event in Illinois and Wisconsin. Something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 No reason to assume se shifts in guidance won't continue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Nice weenie band of evap cooling shows up nicely on the Ukie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Mine 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: No reason to assume se shifts in guidance won't continue Slide towards central IL Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 15z RAP Looking at forecast soundings in areas just north of the precip shield at 51 hrs, the entire column has wet bulb temps below 0C so would likely see a growing area of snow/sleet on the northern fringes just beyond this timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 20 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Slide towards central IL Ukie may avoid the rain scenario afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Some familiar dates on CIPS at 60 hrs. #1 is Christmas Eve 1997. I remember that one because it had the largest snowflakes I've ever seen. Some were literally like 2" in diameter if not more... almost looked like pancakes falling from the sky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ended up with 6-8" here, with 4-6" south and west of me. Powder snow. Have a good snow cover to help against the cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 18z HRRR at hour 48. HRRR really ramps up the evaporative cooling. Not sure if that's actually realistic since all the other models have a much bigger zone of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 30, 2020 Author Share Posted December 30, 2020 What do you call the this next one on New Years day.... Chipolte Express? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ban^ 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Natester said: 18z HRRR at hour 48. HRRR really ramps up the evaporative cooling. Not sure if that's actually realistic since all the other models have a much bigger zone of freezing rain. It is bone dry aloft on the leading edge, so I buy the depiction of a leading band of snow/sleet. Thermal profiles will be changing rapidly as the column saturates and WAA fights back so that may be why it's hard to see on the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Right on cue, 18z NAM (both 12k and 3k) trended southeast where the precip shield only skirts us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 Ice could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 System behind this has sneaky potential . Hmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 30, 2020 Share Posted December 30, 2020 WPC Ice map for Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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