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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

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24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When was the last time we had a clipper pattern? I mean legit winter where we had a couple of clippers. I feel like years ago we used to get on avg 2 or 3 per year. They were 1-3"/2-4" events but they seemed so commonplace. I dont even remember when we had a single Alberta clipper tbh. 2013?

RIP clippers, we followed you for days and days then you hit the mountains and all dried and desiccated yourselves into oblivion and gave us clouds and flurries. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So you're telling me there's a chance? 

We need something. Cohen says warm east for 2 weeks+ once the SSWE gets underway in a few days. Then depending on exactly how that shakes out, we might get colder!

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEPS was never really on board with the great look in late Dec early Jan but now...

3FA8DFBC-CE2E-451E-89E2-0AF4B766EA26.thumb.png.0063a3e96b6c2c913a107113746c89cc.png

 

Just have to see now if it keeps getting kicked.  The last 24-36 hours all 3 ensembles more or less show 1/8-1/12 the transition to the -EPO or +PNA look.  I think I want to see that come inside 240 before  I believe it.  No idea either how the SSW which does look legit at this time impacts this.  Obviously the major results won't transpire til mid or late Jan but we saw 2 winters ago how the warming process basically effed over what was going to be a good pattern shift for the East.

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GEPS was never really on board with the great look in late Dec early Jan but now...

3FA8DFBC-CE2E-451E-89E2-0AF4B766EA26.thumb.png.0063a3e96b6c2c913a107113746c89cc.png

 

That is pretty nice look right there. All models have the great looking block, but not as favorable out west by day 15.

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Also EPS has a signal at that timeframe for a low in the east at the end of its run based on the MSLP anomaly maps - haven’t looked into the individual plots but seems like a decent signal just based on this map.  Perhaps we can get the PNA to flex at the right time.

D430F2A0-C4E3-4226-B777-09EC61C7F0BE.png

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 Canadian ensemble looks very similar to the EPS (EPS a little less pronounced of the PNA ridge).  That’s an impressive west -NAO.  

 

7DBB0C49-8673-4DE4-B440-262A9FC9FC8D.png

Just a general question. Why arent the height lines in the AO region more curved like they are in the alaska trough. I know means are smoothed out I’m just worried we’d see more of the same current pattern

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Just now, Ji said:
56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
So you're telling me there's a chance? 

Absolutely not

You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  

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You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  
Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  

Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it

Not sure about worse.  You already had a warning level event...last winter was epic shit pile with corn...it’s still better...your expectations were too high with the blocking...we were all too excited about it...so.lower the expectation or you’ll just be miserable.  

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:
32 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
You don’t seem enthused about the upcoming pattern.  

Its actually worse than last year because we have the high latitude blocking and we still not tracking anything of significance but its worse for me because on paper we should be killing it

Yo how can you possibly say that? We have a vulnerable polar vortex this year...that ALONE is better than last year!

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure about worse.  You already had a warning level event...last winter was epic shit pile with corn...it’s still better...your expectations were too high with the blocking...we were all too excited about it...so.lower the expectation or you’ll just be miserable.  

Ji literally said 2009-2010 was a disappointment because it didn’t snow any more after the 3rd HECS. His expectations are far, far beyond the point they can be put in check. 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch the models start to lock-in the nice PAC coupled with the -AO/-NAO but the SWE goes and mucks it up. That would never happen though. :damage:

Go read Cohen's latest thread.:whistle:

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9 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What is "wave 1"?

Wavenumber 1. 1 ridge and 1 trough around a latitude circle.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Wavenumber 1. 1 ridge and 1 trough around a latitude circle.

Is that unusual?  Most of the stuff I read mentions the wavenumber typically goes from 2 - 7.

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is that unusual?  Most of the stuff I read mentions the wavenumber typically goes from 2 - 7.

Low wave number patterns are more common in winter, but such a dominant wave 1 is a bit unusual.

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