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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021

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1 minute ago, daxx said:

If you ever see place on townline rd or bice rd for sale buy It!  That area is probably the best on the Tug. I've been all over that hill and that area is by far the best location. 

I'm most familiar w/ Barnes Corners, and if I was able (would be going solo, cause NOO waaaayy would my wife ever consider moving to the snow capital of NYS), that's where i'd go if it were purely for snow.  Brantingham and Old Forge are pretty as well, just not as snowy.  

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm most familiar w/ Barnes Corners, and if I was able (would be going solo, cause NOO waaaayy would my wife ever consider moving to the snow capital of NYS), that's where i'd go if it were purely for snow.  Brantingham and Old Forge are pretty as well, just not as snowy.  

I believe Barnes gets hits harder by thaws in the winter. Being on the north side of the Tug, it can downslope and warm up pretty good on a southerly wind.

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1 minute ago, daxx said:

Yea, Barnes corners is a great area, but just a few miles south of there is even better. Regardless its way better than what we get around here.

Redfield seems to get shellacked as well.  Southern Tug

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Redfield seems to get shellacked as well.  Southern Tug

Redfield is really just a reference point for nws to use.If you go around 6 or so miles north of Redfield that's were the big totals start to show.  I'm not saying the town does not get a lot of snow, just saying the big totals are usually a short distance north.

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7 minutes ago, daxx said:

Redfield is really just a reference point for nws to use.If you go around 6 or so miles north of Redfield that's were the big totals start to show.  I'm not saying the town does not get a lot of snow, just saying the big totals are usually a short distance north.

Yeah, as somebody who lived in South Redfield for a winter, close to the Reservoir...the town gets NOTHING like they do 5 miles to the north or east (higher elevation there). The town itself is in a dreaded transition zone.

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3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, as somebody who lived in South Redfield for a winter, close to the Reservoir...the town gets NOTHING like they do 5 miles to the north or east (higher elevation there). The town itself is in a dreaded transition zone.

I can remember a snowmobile trip that we were going through Pulaski to Adams and seeing a couple blobs of snow and then saying wth did we just come up here for.  We then got off the Adams Center exit and started climbing "The Hill", and by the time we were going through Barnes corners, seeing sled tracks going across the roads, it was just mind boggling.  We went from basically nada to about 18-24" otg.  We see that at the cabin in Tioga, but to a much smaller scale.  My place sits on a west facing ridge at 2275', and believe me it makes a difference.  

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33 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea, Barnes corners is a great area, but just a few miles south of there is even better. Regardless its way better than what we get around here.

Yeah Barnes corner, North redfield and worth/lorraine are some of the snowiest areas east of L.. Ontario..

Back in 2016-2018 N redfield had about 100-150 more inches then the southern part of town..It's also quite a big town lol

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah Barnes corner, North redfield and worth/lorraine are some of the snowiest areas east of L.. Ontario..

Yea..southeast Jefferson, northeast Oswego and central Lewis county is by far snow heaven. 

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3 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea..southeast Jefferson, northeast Oswego and central Lewis county is by far snow heaven. 

Yea I've lived all around that zone but never in it lol From Altmar (east of the southern tug) to copenhagen (north of the tug) to pulaski (even more east of the southern tug) 

Needless to say I see a lot of snow but also miss a lot of snow lol It can get frustrating for sure..

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Once grabbed my ten year old, hopped in the car and went up to Tug on a whim right after High Market got 76” in a really short period of time. Just wanted to see that much fresh snow. Incredible!  I did pity everyone shoveling off their roofs.

Ended the trip snowmobiling somewhere around Boonville. Great trip.

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This lead up to the Christmas holiday is definitely looking like it's going to deliver a hard lesson about most of this region when it comes to December snow. Something to the tune of the only guaranteed White Christmas is one where it's snowing on X-mas Day haha. I'm not sure that the portions of north-central PA that got the tremendous totals are going to see a complete pack loss but it's going to get a pretty big dent in it from the Christmas Eve system while the rest of us probably lose the majority of it. Just was hoping to avoid that long drawn out event with the strong cold front but we're going to get a pretty good dumping. Still a bit uncertain about any changeover, that seems the favor from the Laurels west in PA currently and it might be even further west than that with the possible snow swath. Models drawing that secondary low pressure wave that rides up the front through the middle of PA is a pretty good recipe for a slot and shutoff of most precip by the time the cold air's all the way in. 

At least this storm system will be a one day affair and send some pretty decent cold in for Christmas Day. Then heading towards New Year's we have a good pattern setting up with the nice -NAO block and overall high heights near the pole. So good chance we'll have one or two shots at an event between Christmas and New Years. Here's the possible problem I see, and we got a dose of this problem the last couple days. I'm kinda worried about the amount of cold air we might have in this said favorable pattern. A look at temp departures of our source region in Canada on the models shows a fair amount of above normal temps and not really any bouts of big time cold building with respect to average. Obviously, above normal in Canada is still "cold", but that air mass modifies as it gets to our neck of the woods. I'm hoping we don't waste a couple serviceable storms on account of not having good surface temps to work with (see the last day or so).

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53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

This lead up to the Christmas holiday is definitely looking like it's going to deliver a hard lesson about most of this region when it comes to December snow. Something to the tune of the only guaranteed White Christmas is one where it's snowing on X-mas Day haha. I'm not sure that the portions of north-central PA that got the tremendous totals are going to see a complete pack loss but it's going to get a pretty big dent in it from the Christmas Eve system while the rest of us probably lose the majority of it. Just was hoping to avoid that long drawn out event with the strong cold front but we're going to get a pretty good dumping. Still a bit uncertain about any changeover, that seems the favor from the Laurels west in PA currently and it might be even further west than that with the possible snow swath. Models drawing that secondary low pressure wave that rides up the front through the middle of PA is a pretty good recipe for a slot and shutoff of most precip by the time the cold air's all the way in. 

At least this storm system will be a one day affair and send some pretty decent cold in for Christmas Day. Then heading towards New Year's we have a good pattern setting up with the nice -NAO block and overall high heights near the pole. So good chance we'll have one or two shots at an event between Christmas and New Years. Here's the possible problem I see, and we got a dose of this problem the last couple days. I'm kinda worried about the amount of cold air we might have in this said favorable pattern. A look at temp departures of our source region in Canada on the models shows a fair amount of above normal temps and not really any bouts of big time cold building with respect to average. Obviously, above normal in Canada is still "cold", but that air mass modifies as it gets to our neck of the woods. I'm hoping we don't waste a couple serviceable storms on account of not having good surface temps to work with (see the last day or so).

Patience is the key... just like in early December when it looked like we would have chances, it just took a little time.

It will be tough to not score a decent winter Event or two by the first week of January with the blocking pattern setting up.

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12k NAM puts everyone State College on eastward into wind gusts in the mid 60s.
That’s with 1.5-2” rain  
Who needs power Christmas Day?
 
 
That means you'll be mid 70's no problem. Is tomorrow too soon to start inquiring about your new roof.

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk

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12k NAM puts everyone State College on eastward into wind gusts in the mid 60s.
That’s with 1.5-2” rain  
Who needs power Christmas Day?
 
 
Santa's going to have one hell of a headwind

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk

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As far as our first system (Dec 28/29) after the Christmas day storm I think that is pretty much DOA for the majority of the mid-Atlantic outside of those possibly around the lakes and the extreme NE. The Christmas day storm would have been the setup for system #1 and we aren't seeing what we needed to see. A few days ago the models were portraying low pressures around the 50/50 region. We are no longer seeing that as we now have them located up around the Hudson Bay region. This difference is allowing height builds up and off the east coast in front of system #1 and also creating a weakness over top through the Lakes as well. This pretty much argues that this system will ride up into the Lakes. Now this first system was somewhat of a reach to see snow of any consequence into the 95 corridor/coastal plain in the mid-Atlantic up into the NE as portrayed on the models a few days ago. What was of more significance was that it laid the groundwork for system #2 around the New Year. But like dominoes falling, system #2 is now in serious trouble as well because of the difference in evolution of the Christmas day storm.

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This is the look we are now generally seeing on all three major Global ensembles (Euro, GFS, CMC) leading into system #2. All three globals show our Dec 28th system migrating into the general 50/50 region underneath blocking in the NAO region. This is pretty much what we want to see. But if you look in between that 50/50 and our New Year's day storm note that we are seeing strong height builds/ridging running up in the east from the deep south into Canada. Now typically I want to see height builds between a 50/50 and an incoming low. But I want to see them at the last second as the approaching low closes the distance to the 50/50. But we are not seeing this here as the height builds are occurring far too early because of the large separation between these two lows. And the reason for this large separation is two fold. The different evolution of the two previous systems has changed the timing and the South west energy is a little slower to eject. This really is not a good look as it wrecks temps (warming) and effects storm track (adjusting it north and west). Now I have not given up completely on system #2 for the 95/coastal plain as of yet, but it is looking rough as currently portrayed on the models. We need to some how delay/tamp down those east coast height builds whether through timing or other means.

1353463448_GEFSDec23500s.thumb.gif.ba6485ea8dde9266855d45e2814cff6c.gif

Some may ask why we are having such difficulties despite good blocking showing up in the N-Atlantic. That pretty much has to do with where that blocking is showing up. Typically (there are exceptions) for the coastal plains/95 portions of the east we want a western based -NAO that extends over top into Canada. But what we have been generally seeing has been an central and eastern based -NAO. There is hope though as there are signs we are actually moving more towards a western based NAO in the extended. Guess we shall see.

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Once the blocking gets established and migrates to a slightly more west based -NAO position, we should be back in the snow business.

If the system towards New Year’s Eve can come out in pieces, it would allow it to be more progressive to perhaps slide under us. 

The blocking looks to be sustained in the long range and the AO & NAO are forecasted to remain negative over at least the next 2 weeks. If we remain patient, we should receive the snow goods eventually in this pattern.

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21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Once the blocking gets established and migrates to a slightly more west based -NAO position, we should be back in the snow business.

If the system towards New Year’s Eve can come out in pieces, it would allow it to be more progressive to perhaps slide under us. 

The blocking looks to be sustained in the long range and the AO & NAO are forecasted to remain negative over at least the next 2 weeks. If we remain patient, we should receive the snow goods eventually in this pattern.

I am still excited about what we are seeing despite what we may have with the next few systems. It looks as if the N-Atlantic is going to cooperate (blocking) for the most part for the foreseeable future. This portends well for seeing blocking a good portion of the winter. As long as we see that blocking, no matter where it is located, we will have our chances. As we are just entering prime climo this should hopefully afford us ample opportunities this winter. I really think this is a case of delayed but nor denied.

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Seems like a good time to reminisce about favorite winter rainstorms.
We do actually seem due for a top notch wind storm

Sent from my LM-X210APM using Tapatalk

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34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am still excited about what we are seeing despite what we may have with the next few systems. It looks as if the N-Atlantic is going to cooperate (blocking) for the most part for the foreseeable future. This portends well for seeing blocking a good portion of the winter. As long as we see that blocking, no matter where it is located, we will have our chances. As we are just entering prime climo this should hopefully afford us ample opportunities this winter. I really think this is a case of delayed but nor denied.

Yeah I think the models are just starting to adjust to the blocking. Likely blowing the dust/rust off those parts as its been a while.  hehe

w/ nina fading and blocking looking to have some legs, at the minimum it should give some windows of opportunity, and is a welcome sight.  So tired of the constant cutting that we've see for far too long.  Looking forward to see vorts passing south of us, and seeing what happens from there.  I'd be fine w/ some overrunning as well..so long as we are on the cold side of the boundary.  

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31 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

Seems like a good time to reminisce about favorite winter rainstorms.

I've got nothin for ya.........................................

 

 

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