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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread

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Soon to be rolled off the showroom floor new GFS has an even more expansive snow with less mix that the ECM for storm #1 

Turn off the screen and wait for Tuesday :whistle: 

 

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11 minutes ago, Furrawn said:

Lovely snow squall a little after 11 a.m. today. The dog and I went out to play.

3FA77796-8001-42DC-A268-93B8B31CFB39.gif

Wish there was a love emoji.....this is awesome on many levels!

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wish there was a love emoji.....this is awesome on many levels!

Cool dog but a Husky would have been weenie weather picture perfect... 

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That last squall that passed through the SoMoCo area just after Noon was intense. Lucky the sun angle put up a good fight and the roads never were an issue, just visibility.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Gfs/gefs is either going to score a giant coup or have a giant egg on its face. A bit concerning that the gfs ensembles were suppressed like the gefs. I only saw 2 hits on the gefs. Fortunately the eps looks good, much like its op. Not many suppressed looks either.

Screenshot_20210120-153132.thumb.png.1c8358fe30cc2001eb6f8fde3c140858.png

 

 

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22 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

18z gfs still is a whiff, the para gfs tho is a nice hit region wide! 

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

Too far out to be in the bullseye. I get more nervous jackpotting at 6+ days than I do with crud solutions at 84 hrs but with wiggle room. Get this within 60 hrs and we r gold....maybe. This one doesn't have alot of wiggle room for a flush snow hit, but nice to see this as a potential. On to 0z.

Eta: 18z GEFS mean showed slight improvement wrt total precip amts, 2m temps, and general track. 

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Imagine how boring this hobby would be w/o the GFS.

Oh, and ch10 said maybe more snow showers next week.

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16 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Imagine how boring this hobby would be w/o the GFS.

Oh, and ch10 said maybe more snow showers next week.

Sounds like something Bill Henley would say, if he is still around. One of the weather people that isn't a weather person.

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

We lost all but the Ukie, whick looks fabulous, to the block at 0z

 

 

Euro looks good but temps are  borderline in many places.

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Ens means at overnight continued to slowly improve for early next week for parts of this region with most notable changes being ticks N with precip and increased overall amount. Southern portions of the region still walking a fine line on temps but immediate PHL on N and W continue to show colder 850s pressing S each run trying to fight off any surging warmth. Attached is the GEPS trend in precip....6z GEFS was just rolling and not quite available yet:

gem-ens_apcpn24_us_fh132_trend.gif

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ens means at overnight continued to slowly improve for early next week for parts of this region with most notable changes being ticks N with precip and increased overall amount. Southern portions of the region still walking a fine line on temps but immediate PHL on N and W continue to show colder 850s pressing S each run trying to fight off any surging warmth. Attached is the GEPS trend in precip....6z GEFS was just rolling and not quite available yet:

gem-ens_apcpn24_us_fh132_trend.gif

what are we 5 days out now? so these models should start some sort of consensus soon correct? If I remember correctly  the mid December storm was modeled pretty well by about day 5 but the finer details didn't come till 48hrs. 

 

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33 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

what are we 5 days out now? so these models should start some sort of consensus soon correct? If I remember correctly  the mid December storm was modeled pretty well by about day 5 but the finer details didn't come till 48hrs. 

 

We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well.

Hope you are right..get that north trend.

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We should start getting a concensus by 12z tomorrow imho. GFS is just catching up to other guidance. Looks like a wave slides across Sunday night/Monday reinforcing the cold air (seasonably cold which would work). Then we get a strung out overunning event Monday PM-late Tuesday. Best band being modeled around Baltimore latitude right now in general but overunning traditionally ends up farther N than modeled....tho with such a strong block *maybe* that fights off too much of a N trend? Just glad we are in prime climo and tracking. Patience was wearing thin for many with the HL blocking finally being established. Should be more chances for the 10 days following as well.

12z off to a good start. ICON inched north a bit and gives the area a decent hit. Wave 1 is still a little too far south, but wave 2 hits us pretty solid. Haven't seen the clown maps but I'm guessing a solid 3-4" for most places? Good to see the S trend stop at least. I agree we don't want to be in the jackpot this far out, but at the same time a continuing south trend would have been worrisome at this range. 12z tomorrow seems like a good bet on whether this threat has serious legs or not. I don't anticipate many last minute changes on this one, I think once this gets into the day 3-4 range, any changes will be minimal. Just basing this off the last month, the models have generally been pretty spot on from the day 4 range this winter surprisingly. 

 

EDIT: Catching up on the ensembles from last night(both GEFS and EPS), there is still a surprisingly amount of amped up N solutions still in play. 12z GFS also just ticked North halting the suppression trend for now. 

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CMC south with wave #2, but let's get wave #1 locked down before worrying about anything else.

Paging Dr. No...

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1 minute ago, Animal said:

Canadian & GFS locked and loaded 

Cmc is beautiful for all, that would be my absolute ideal solution for this storm. Everyone gets in on the action. Southern areas see some mixing issues verbatim but see more precip so overall everyone sees at least 3-6". Gfs was a major improvement but still a sharp cut off for our northern friends.  Overall though great improvements so far at 12z and that's ignoring how great the long range after this threat looks. Excited to see the gefs.

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Just now, JTA66 said:

CMC south with wave #2, but let's get wave #1 locked down before worrying about anything else.

Paging Dr. No...

Exactly how I feel, let's take it one storm at a time but man is it encouraging to see at least 3 legit threats after this one in the long range. It's been a long time since we've been potentially tracking snow on snow.

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