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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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4 hours ago, penndotguy said:

So Mt Holly in their AFD mentions plowable snow possible in Berks, LV and Southern Poconos Friday Moring, would be nice but Im not counting on it though. Balmy 40F at the moment 

No longer mentioned in the afternoon afd.  New discussion teases weens with a few upper air features may produces snow showers or flurries. Big news is the potential for 1-2 inches of rain. Ski areas are drooling over this forecast. 

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12 hours ago, RedSky said:

Yep cloudy here AGAIN and it's not suppose to be

Cloudy (why would you want sun?) + snowpack/w/sleet on top + not blow torch temps.= frozen piles last longer which is cool. 

29F...@ 6am, still some good snow mounds in parking lots and side streets up here.....tomorrow will be a buzzkill though.

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On 12/22/2020 at 6:03 AM, SP said:

ducks on the pond through new years, post Mr Heatmiser's visit christmas eve.

Hmm.   guess they were decoys?  Imagine being a ski resort owner operator.  Watching the snow melt is the equivalent to watching cash dissolve. Both the cash you deposited as well the free infusion provided by mother nature.  Then its rinse and repeat.   

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Possibly the strongest for the time of year on record

 

Think we need this record breaking event outta here before we can see our next snow threat.  While the ducks (teleconectors) look just about right I’m not seeing the sustained cold for us to score at this time crazily still looks too progressive. 

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Cloudy (why would you want sun?) + snowpack/w/sleet on top + not blow torch temps.= frozen piles last longer which is cool. 

29F...@ 6am, still some good snow mounds in parking lots and side streets up here.....tomorrow will be a buzzkill though.

He wanted to star gaze I think. I did get some breaks last night and was able to see the grand conjunction. If I hadn't known I would have assumed it was just another planet(s) or star cluster. Pretty cool to have been able to get a glimpse of something though knowing it has been 800 years.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Blocking developments look excellent. I really like the looks of the ens around Jan 4-7...-NAO relaxes, PNA ridge pumps a little, big energy rolling under the area. Maybe. Anything before then probably a bonus. 

I just really hope the models long term don't screw with us.

"Yeah...yeah...looks great 10 days out....then fizzles."

"Yeah...yeah...looks great 10 days out....then fizzles."

"Yeah...yeah...looks great 10 days out....then fizzles."

Then we're in March/April with Summer outlook threads....

 

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4 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Still have snow piles and such (a week),pretty good lasting and not even Christmas yet. The sleet layer definitely helped...

45F/sunny

Down to about 55% coverage here, today was a big melt day. Tomorrow will finish it off, but I'm pretty confident about snow piles for Christmas. Tip of the hat to our week of snow cover, not bad at all for December lately.

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View Larry Cosgrove’s profile

Larry Cosgrove shared a post: What a "Greenland block" means to you. See also: https://lnkd.in/gDgAvsT The weather pattern over North America during the next 5-6 weeks will likely be heavily influenced by a large blocking signature, a positive 500MB height anomaly commonly known as a Greenland Block. A symptom of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, the persistent closed ridge complex can produce two noteworthy effects: 1) Keeping the incoming storm track suppressed toward lower latitudes in the USA, with strongest periods of disturbed weather off of the shoreline of the Mid-Atlantic and New England states and 2) enabling drainage of cold air from Canada into the lower 48 states. All of the numerical models have consistently shown ridging in the vicinity of Baffin Island/Greenland from the medium range (and in some cases) through the month of January. The analogs are also strongly favorable for this feature. If you look at forecast guidance, you see a trend of storms coming into the West Coast being diverted into Texas, then to Georgia, then slowing up along and off of the East Coast. It is a fairly classic scenario. The result? Heavier than normal precipitation in the eastern half of the U.S. Temperatures gradually trending below average after each storm.

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8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Blocking developments look excellent. I really like the looks of the ens around Jan 4-7...-NAO relaxes, PNA ridge pumps a little, big energy rolling under the area. Maybe. Anything before then probably a bonus. 

18z GFS looks like spring starts the first week of January B) blocking with mild Pacific air

 

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