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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Since there's no snow in the immediate forecast, I'm back to looking at the damn surfcams.

Jenk's death slab resembling Backdoor/Pipeline this morning.  

7CjAwNP.jpg

Also I think this is required viewing for anyone interested in weather and the ocean in the mid-atlantic region.  Towing Hurricane Sandy in OCMD with Will Skudin, who recently opened the Skudin Surf wave pool in the American Dream mall.  The last wave in particular has to be the biggest wave surfed in the region.  

Can I weenie tag my own post? 

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18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Poconos get rocked on the 12z euro. Almost everyone sees some flakes though. This is pretty much the best case scenario for this week imo. That 50/50 high isn't going to allow it to escape much further off the coast.

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

 

That alone would surpass my totals from last year.

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EPS not gloom and doom as much as the GEFS and GEPS were for mid month. Holds that Scandinavian ridging which I had mentioned feeding the neg NAO. PAC is also neutralish looking. A workable pattern anyway and not a total shut the blinds look. Key to this winter as I stated in early Nov will he how long and how strong that Scan ridge holds and if it continues to feed the NAO as it has shown since mid Sept. Cautious optimism.

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Yeah Pacific isn't as puke-worthy as it was last winter. Currently, though, even with the nice PNA ridge Canada is torched so our cold air source is non-existent. Need a nice -EPO to develop and set up a cross polar flow and at least have some cold air up north we can tap into. I would be surprised if we get completely shut out this December, but knowing our luck with the previous winters, I'm not sure what to bet on lol

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Mt. Holly confirmed an EF0 in Montgomeryville (I was last up on that area in late September) -

Quote

NOUS41 KPHI 011648
 PNSPHI
 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-020500-
 
 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
 National Weather Service MOUNT HOLLY NJ
 1148 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020
 
 Montgomeryville, Montgomery County Tornado
 
 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 11/30/20 TORNADO EVENT...
 
 Start Location...Montgomeryville in Montgomery County, PA
 End Location...Montgomeryville in Montgomery County, PA
 Date...November 30, 2020
 Estimated Time...3:47 PM EST
 Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...70 mph
 Maximum Path Width...100 yards
 Path Length... 0.5 miles
 Beginning Lat/Lon...40.232546, -75.236494
 Ending Lat/Lon...40.23972, -75.23589
 * Fatalities...None
 * Injuries...None
 
 ...Summary...
 An EF-0 tornado touched down immediately east of the Route 309 
 (Bethlehem Pike) northbound onramp to the 202 Parkway in 
 Montgomeryville, PA around 347 PM.  As the tornado crossed the 
 Parkway, two small trees were uprooted on its northbound side. 
 Outdoor wooden picnic benches and tables at the Texas Roadhouse 
 restaurant were picked up and tossed a few hundred feet, breaking 
 the front window of the nearby but now shuttered Noboru 
 restaurant.  Circulation associated with this tornado then pulled 
 air-handling equipment from the roof of this restaurant and tore 
 off siding from the northeastern edge of the building.  Six to 
 eight cars in the nearby parking lots of both the Texas Roadhouse 
 and Noboru restaurants were shaken and/or tossed as the tornado 
 moved through, and branches of numerous small trees in the area 
 were snapped.  Several metal light posts were also bent at the 
 base in and round these parking lots as a result of the wind 
 and/or flying debris, and the poles supporting two stop signs 
 were bent and dislodged as well.  A supporting pole to the 
 entranceway of the Staybridge hotel was also damaged as the 
 storms circulation moved by.  As the tornado continued to travel 
 in a northeasterly direction, the circulation slowly weakened, 
 with some minor roof damage to the Costco building. After less 
 than one minute on the ground, the tornado lifted just north of 
 Upper State Road, in the vicinity of a local quarry.
 
 
 EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
 following categories:
 
 EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
 EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
 EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
 EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
 EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
 EF5...Violent...>200 mph
 
 * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
 change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
 Storm Data.
 
 $$
 
 Davis

I know there were a bunch of TOR warnings down in Delaware but didn't hear whether anything was confirmed there (although I haven't really looked that hard but figured it would have been highlighted in the news.

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46 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Flakes on first two days of meteorological winter, hell of a way to start a predicted warm dud winter.

 

Shhhh, 12z gfs is night and day vs 6z. Full lat SE ridge at 12z and complete Nina look vs epic neg NAO look from 6z.

This looks like that transition we deal with every winter where models are waffling on major pattern change which inevitably ends up dictating a good chunk of winter ahead. Been down this road almost every year....some ya win, some ya lose. Hoping the less Nina look and more favorable blocking will be the theme and not the opposite. Cautiously optimistic. I mean it's 2020, what could go wrong? :yikes:

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55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shhhh, 12z gfs is night and day vs 6z. Full lat SE ridge at 12z and complete Nina look vs epic neg NAO look from 6z.

This looks like that transition we deal with every winter where models are waffling on major pattern change which inevitably ends up dictating a good chunk of winter ahead. Been down this road almost every year....some ya win, some ya lose. Hoping the less Nina look and more favorable blocking will be the theme and not the opposite. Cautiously optimistic. I mean it's 2020, what could go wrong? :yikes:

First half of December is going to have this months mild forecasts in trouble this wasn't suppose to happen. Going to need a big torch week to have a warmer than normal month(xmas :grinch:)

Interesting fact is 89/90 was a heavy analog being used so maybe a colder look shouldn't be a surprise. For those that don't know that was a frigged month and a torch Jan/Feb.

 

 

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