TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Id be happy with 1-3", but I'd triple that call to 5-9" especially considering ratios which should be quite high so we'll see how it all comes together! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Graupel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Now the Euro and especially the GFS seem to be off on their own. Hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Thats map is 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z eps mean qpf is just tad lower than 0z but not by much. Like .1 less at bgm and syr anyway. I’d be happy with this. A few inches would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12z EPS qpf mean looks about same as 0z at quick glance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, tim123 said: Thats map is 06z Yeah sorry I deleted and reposted now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Definitely higher in rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Some nice members and some really close.. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Definitely higher in rochester. Oh yeah! Half an inch qpf! That’s not bad. Guys, Williamsport has 30” on 12z EURO. That is getting really close y’all. In the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z EPS qpf mean looks about same as 0z at quick glance... I'd take this for KSYR...about 0.6" Liquid Equivalent at say, 11 or 12:1 would get us Warning criteria snowfall. NWS KBGM gonna have to choose their poison real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Some nice members and some really close.. Source which is the Control run...01? Or is that separated from the Ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Give me panels 22 21 03. For the win. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: Definitely higher in rochester. And a .10 higher at KBUF...it’s painting .38 and at 12 to 1 that’s roughly 4 1/2” to 5”... I take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 European also has a CF but on Christmas Eve..WSW flow LES behind it, does none of us any good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European also has a CF but on Christmas Eve..WSW flow LES behind it, does none of us any good lol Does me lots of good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, Syrmax said: which is the Control run...01? Or is that separated from the Ensemble members? Not sure, may be its own entity lol Here was 12z, little south of the mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: European also has a CF but on Christmas Eve..WSW flow LES behind it, does none of us any good lol Looks like an anafront, haven't had a good one of those in awhile. Would be fun on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 I would gladly receive nothing with this storm and have that setup the GFS/EURO/GEM is showing next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: Give me panels 22 21 03. For the win. Lol I'll take door #22 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I would gladly receive nothing with this storm and have that setup the GFS/EURO/GEM is showing next week. Yet, you might not have to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Anyone on the forum also believe KBUF will still blow this off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I would gladly receive nothing with this storm and have that setup the GFS/EURO/GEM is showing next week. No way! That's a disaster scenario for most of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Anyone on the forum also believe KBUF will still blow this off? Their high-end amounts are already showing they aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Anyone on the forum also believe KBUF will still blow this off? Advisories probably...same with KBGM, other than current Watch counties will be upgraded. KBGM: 1245 PM Update... First, some notes about the incoming storm. Model consensus is taking a bit of a northern jog with track of system and especially its midlevel frontogenesis axis, which will be the focus of higher snowfall rates. Forecast adjustments are being made, to allow higher amounts into the Catskills and Southern Tier. We anticipate possible slight northward expansion of existing Watches and Warnings, to be issued by mid afternoon once final decisions are made. The idea a gradient of uncertainty/sharp cutoff in amounts is still there, but the location of that uncertainty is shoving about a tier of counties further north. Meanwhile, solid confidence in a high impact storm exists for, at a minimum, Northeast Pennsylvania and into the Southern Catskills. Thermally, the models also suggest a nose of warmer air aloft yet still below freezing. This may contribute to some riming on ice crystals. So for Wyoming Valley-Poconos area, that may provide an upper bound to snow possibilities. Very likely however for at least a foot to still be realized in Wyoming Valley-Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 LR hrrr fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR hrrr fwiw Thanks, was just about to look this up...doesn't show the primary moving too far N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR hrrr fwiw That dryslot really f*cks Philly & NYC forums. Ugly if real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 15z Sref look even better to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I just saw a convoy and I mean a large convoy of salt trucks headed towards Albany on my way home from Little falls so I guess they're anticipating a very large snowstorm in the next 24-36 hoursSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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