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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


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36 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

The barbarians are at the gate, we need you to hold.

Confirming with traffic cams, 70 and 79 in Washington and Greene look wet. Precip is mostly liquid

I can confirm the line is still holding, sir.  Lol.  Rates are picking up at the moment. 

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There were a few models that kept us dry most of today.  We've lost a good bit of time with the primary, but it really hasn't moved much all day.  Consider my last post it was in southern Indiana, and right now the surface low is over Northern Kentucky just creeping into West Virginia.  No coastal redevelopment yet.

The freezing line at the surface is close to the area if not over it, but at 850 the line remains well south of Morgantown.

850mb.gif?1612125957024

If the snow rates can get going, it should cool the surface back down, as well.

Still not sure how this will play out.  It does look like we might be relying on the CCB to line up over as again, at least if we want to hit the higher end of warning totals.  Could happen tomorrow and even into Tuesday.  Also consider that the CMC and RGEM has it snowing here until Wednesday afternoon.  If that occurs, we'll certainly be fine.

Looking at this storm overall, however, I can't help but wish we picked it up during an El Nino winter.  That moisture abundance from the STJ would have made this a really remarkable event for a much bigger area.

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13 minutes ago, jwilson said:

There were a few models that kept us dry most of today.  We've lost a good bit of time with the primary, but it really hasn't moved much all day.  Consider my last post it was in southern Indiana, and right now the surface low is over Northern Kentucky just creeping into West Virginia.  No coastal redevelopment yet.

The freezing line at the surface is close to the area if not over it, but at 850 the line remains well south of Morgantown.

850mb.gif?1612125957024

If the snow rates can get going, it should cool the surface back down, as well.

Still not sure how this will play out.  It does look like we might be relying on the CCB to line up over as again, at least if we want to hit the higher end of warning totals.  Could happen tomorrow and even into Tuesday.  Also consider that the CMC and RGEM has it snowing here until Wednesday afternoon.  If that occurs, we'll certainly be fine.

Looking at this storm overall, however, I can't help but wish we picked it up during an El Nino winter.  That moisture abundance from the STJ would have made this a really remarkable event for a much bigger area.

Was thinking the same thing. This block is kinda being wasted on a typical Nina climo.

Regarding the models, unfortunately the GFS has led the way so far. It's been locked in for a couple days.

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