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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


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Stolen from a met from the Mid Atlantic forum

 

I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up

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30 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Stolen from a met from the Mid Atlantic forum

 

I know everyone here is very interested in mainly the snow chances for the extended, but I cannot understate how insane this cold signature is for the entire CONUS on guidance right now. This would rival some of the top cold outbreaks of all time. Even the ensembles are hinting at some historic level cold over the country. There will be lots of squall potential in this setup too with that Valentines Day period that @Eskimo Joe brought up above my post as the most aggressive time frame for it. Globals will not see that squall potential until it's within short range either. Bundle up

GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning).

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10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

GFS is showing three days in a row from Feb. 14-16 that have PIT colder than any temperature ever recorded so late in the winter season. Obviously a long way to go until then and it will change about 100 times, but -15 on Valentine’s Day is unprecedented (at this juncture, the Euro also shows negative double digits that morning).

Also, would have to be the coldest in a few decades.

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5 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:
8 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:
Giant flakes right now in Mt. Lebanon. Looks awesome outside right now.

I've been seeing a mix but sometimes it comes down as all snow and it's huge flakes. I've always loved the size of the snow flakes when it's getting ready to mix or change over.

Yes just noticed the mix too. Definitely having some rain mix in. 

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21 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

I admit I was kind of excited in ‘94 to get to -22. Felt like I was seeing history and so I definitely rooted for it. But I can probably take or leave extreme cold at this point. 

I could take or leave extreme heat, but I was rooting for 100 when the models were showing it for a time this past summer.

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5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

here is the top 10 coldest three day lows on record.  If the GFS has the right idea for Feb 14-16, we are looking at a top 5 cold outbreak.

Screen Shot 2021-02-04 at 9.43.51 PM.png

Incredibly rare in February, considering both of the February outbreaks in that table were actually the same cold wave.

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Alas, that magnitude of cold disappeared from the models (though I think we get at least one subzero morning at some point. What day or days that will be is anyone’s guess). And confidence seems to be increasing that we finally get a colder than average February after several unseasonably warm ones. And maybe some good snow! (Though, again, when and how much seems to widely vary.)

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Models still aren't exciting me.  Sunday is still too far east, a few runs bring us very little snow, or a front instead of the storm.  Interesting though that a lot show a storm to the east and a front coming from the west.

Euro still has a few nights below 0, GFS much less cold.

GFS seems to be a more active pattern but no significant snow events. The Euro puts us close to -10 Fri/Sat, the 6z GFS puts us there Sat/Sun before dragging yet another system with more rain/mix than snow up the coast early the following week. 
 

Edit: I lied, not rain since temps will be below freezing based on that model. But a half inch of snow and not that much QPF.

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12z GFS doesn't have a ton of snow.  Looks a bit better than earlier, so positive moves for Sunday and next week.  But the cold it brings!  Valentine's Day low is -17, second coldest ever in February and one of the coldest ever temperatures.  Then a high of only 0-2 degrees.  Then -2 the next morning.

NAM's a stinker for Sunday.

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...and now the Euro brings another rain/mix storm across the region late next week, and is some 40 degrees higher than the last run for that timeframe. What’s more, there are only two days (Monday and Monday) where the low temperature drops below 15. Simply put, we’re not getting a cold snap and we’re not getting much snow this month. Unbelievable.

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