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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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Pretty impressive early snow event in southern New England ongoing, maybe not in sheer accumulations but fact that it's snowing basically all the way to the coast (places like Boston metro). There was also some flakes reported in parts of NYC metro and Long Island earlier today along with some reports in northern/northeastern PA. Just a tad late for us, and perhaps a bit north with the boundary. This event is probably a moderate snowstorm for us in Dec/Jan. There was some entrainment of Zeta's moisture, but the remnant core rocketed northeast rapidly and didn't really catch much of south central PA. A lot of the heavy lifting yesterday in terms of precip was the warm advection precip shield and we had a lull in between that and the upper level low that rolled through in the early morning hours. The deepening at the coast was just a bit too late for us.

Been watching pattern evolution alot this month to maybe catch some early hints. We've been developing solid La Nina conditions as the fall has gone on with the previous weekly ENSO 3.4 region at -1.4ºC (quite low). The new three month average will probably be out next week for ASO. The previous three month average for JAS was -0.6ºC and given October's bigger anomalies I'd look for that new value to perhaps be quite close to moderate territory. On the weekly scale we have been there (moderate) the last few weeks. To technically get the official full blown La-Nina, the conditions need to be present for at least 5 consecutive three month averages (we'll be up to two next week). But La-Nina conditions are definitely present and It's very likely to be some kind of an influence this winter. That influence has already manifested in a very active Atlantic tropical season. Standard boilerplate La-Nina winters here like a lot of northern branch, limited southern branch/phasing opportunities, wild temperature swings in a general progressive pattern, and perhaps a tad drier than average. So when I watched this current storm roll up this week, I can easily envision this happening during the winter with a strong cutoff in the SW ejecting out and drawing Gulf moisture up but not phasing with a progressive northern branch. The result can be a good snowstorm but more of a 6-8" type variety.

Of course not all Nina's are standard, and other factors like the MJO and the NAO are going to play into what we end up looking like this winter. A stronger Nina later in the winter could invite more of a possibility of the MJO spending some time in the dreaded 4-5-6 or certainly at least the combo of the two things being an overwhelming influence in eastern US temps. It would probably be preferable to remain in the weak to borderline moderate range, as there isn't too many examples of moderate or strong Nina's having notably snowy winters around here analog wise. Will be interesting to see how the strength of it evolves as we get into the front end of winter. 

 

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1.63" here was pretty much final tally, still a few sprinkles this afternoon.

Coal stove finally got fired up yesterday, 70 degrees in the house. 

The closest the snow got was Liberty 15 north.

Nice write-ups Mag!

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Holy crap, good for you! Must have been some coal region banding going on up there. :) 

I must be making up for those "Tamaqua Split" events the past few years...lol

3 hours ago, sauss06 said:

 Me too! Now I just need some warmth, to add to my aeration, seeding and fertilizing. 

What are you using to aerify? A machine or a manual one, and if manual, did you make it yourself or buy one? I want to aerate my yard and sand dress it, but I'm landlocked so a big machine isn't an option.

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On 10/28/2020 at 2:53 PM, MAG5035 said:

The progressive pattern kind of limits the potential. If we end up with the further south track, it'll likely be because it ended up with a more progressive storm and you don't have as much time to get much of a changeover. Zeta runs out in front of the closed 500mb low, and the weakening 500mb low slides east just under us and doesn't really phase with the northern branch. This is a really big early season snowstorm if these things phased together with the cold available nearby, but we're too progressive. I think that far northern part of PA does change over at the end but probably the inch or less variety slushy accumulation.. pretty much your guess. 

Got 1” this am. Having fun. Happy Friday all. 

0ED9E484-DE61-4543-9750-B6F4B63AD599.jpeg

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18 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was going to post my final tally until I realized it's raining now. 

1.41". Grass mowing tomorrow! 

I thought that it might soon be time to put my lawn mower away after I cut the grass last weekend. This rain followed by a few warmer days upcoming later this week might mean that I might need to do one final mowing.

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17 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Pretty impressive early snow event in southern New England ongoing, maybe not in sheer accumulations but fact that it's snowing basically all the way to the coast (places like Boston metro). There was also some flakes reported in parts of NYC metro and Long Island earlier today along with some reports in northern/northeastern PA. Just a tad late for us, and perhaps a bit north with the boundary. This event is probably a moderate snowstorm for us in Dec/Jan. There was some entrainment of Zeta's moisture, but the remnant core rocketed northeast rapidly and didn't really catch much of south central PA. A lot of the heavy lifting yesterday in terms of precip was the warm advection precip shield and we had a lull in between that and the upper level low that rolled through in the early morning hours. The deepening at the coast was just a bit too late for us.

Been watching pattern evolution alot this month to maybe catch some early hints. We've been developing solid La Nina conditions as the fall has gone on with the previous weekly ENSO 3.4 region at -1.4ºC (quite low). The new three month average will probably be out next week for ASO. The previous three month average for JAS was -0.6ºC and given October's bigger anomalies I'd look for that new value to perhaps be quite close to moderate territory. On the weekly scale we have been there (moderate) the last few weeks. To technically get the official full blown La-Nina, the conditions need to be present for at least 5 consecutive three month averages (we'll be up to two next week). But La-Nina conditions are definitely present and It's very likely to be some kind of an influence this winter. That influence has already manifested in a very active Atlantic tropical season. Standard boilerplate La-Nina winters here like a lot of northern branch, limited southern branch/phasing opportunities, wild temperature swings in a general progressive pattern, and perhaps a tad drier than average. So when I watched this current storm roll up this week, I can easily envision this happening during the winter with a strong cutoff in the SW ejecting out and drawing Gulf moisture up but not phasing with a progressive northern branch. The result can be a good snowstorm but more of a 6-8" type variety.

Of course not all Nina's are standard, and other factors like the MJO and the NAO are going to play into what we end up looking like this winter. A stronger Nina later in the winter could invite more of a possibility of the MJO spending some time in the dreaded 4-5-6 or certainly at least the combo of the two things being an overwhelming influence in eastern US temps. It would probably be preferable to remain in the weak to borderline moderate range, as there isn't too many examples of moderate or strong Nina's having notably snowy winters around here analog wise. Will be interesting to see how the strength of it evolves as we get into the front end of winter. 

 

Yes, the snow event yesterday in New England was impressive. There are some good pictures in their obs thread.

I agree that it will be interesting to see how the strength of the Niña evolves over the next couple of months. Like you mentioned, other factors like the NAO and MJO will always be a factor.

It would be great to have a chance of getting a storm similar to yesterday take place in another month or so in CTP. 

Our winter tracking time is coming soon. I am happy that we get to change the clocks soon so that the weather models will come out 1 hour earlier! I am looking forward to asking, “who is staying up for the Euro!”

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I'm surprised there's no wind advisories for CTP. PHL and northeast have them. We must be just under the threshold, but for me they have gusts to 45 mph tomorrow.

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CTP added winter weather advisories for Somerset and Cambria this afternoon for up to 2-4". Could be a wild early morning in places up there with some high winds as well as a brief Huron connection to potentially enhance an overall robust lake response with this brief but significant cold shot. 

New snow map:

StormTotalSnow.thumb.png.7223689cb571f009ac13bb06973bcb0e.png

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