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paweather

Central PA 2020 Fall - The Hope begins

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Euro with a similar big ticket amplification and precip event today to the GFS.

ecmwf-deterministic-east-precip_24hr_inch-1380800.thumb.png.29d568b6e81e4e9f9f41d6a56a1fb53b.png

 It seems like they entrain the remants of Beta (esp Euro) which looks to swirl about down in the Deep South most of the week. It still looks like a big amplification in the pattern with or without that extra charge. This is still out past D7, so obviously not getting too wound up on any details yet. Being that early next week timeframe is right near the beginning of October, we're getting to that period of the fall where we usually can see that first major system that jolts the pattern towards more of a mid-late fall regime. In the meantime, we warm up second half of the week while staying bone dry. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I have Prescott on my fantasy team.   Man he went off with almost 50 points 

Randall Cunningham like day.  I have Higbee at TE so I am sitting pretty unless I played a Prescott team.  Have not looked yet.

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12 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I was glad my team (Steelers) got out of today pretty clean on the injury front. Lot of injuries today. 

With the lack of preseason I believe this will be the year of the injury.   

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33 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

3 frosts in a row at golf course.   That’s impressive as it wasn’t just a fluke event.  Possibly one more tomorrow.   

That's very impressive. I don't recall cold of this magnitude this early since I think it was 1983? That year I had a couple of frosts in September which came on the heels of getting down to the low 40s in late August.

37 and frostless here this morning. There has been some scattered frost the past 2 mornings around Lanco but nothing here as of yet. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's very impressive. I don't recall cold of this magnitude this early since I think it was 1983? That year I had a couple of frosts in September which came on the heels of getting down to the low 40s in late August.

37 and frostless here this morning. There has been some scattered frost the past 2 mornings around Lanco but nothing here as of yet. 

I wonder how that winter turned out.....I'm pretty sure there was a big storm but other than that I have no idea.

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17 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I wonder how that winter turned out.....I'm pretty sure there was a big storm but other than that I have no idea.

There was a big storm (24") in February of 83, but the winter of 83-84 was not a good one based off memory and my records. This is based as much on recollection as it is on facts, but I believe that generally speaking, abnormally cold or abnormally early season snowfall is NOT a harbinger for a good winter to follow...

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

There was a big storm (24") in February of 83, but the winter of 83-84 was not a good one based off memory and my records. This is based as much on recollection as it is on facts, but I believe that generally speaking, abnormally cold or abnormally early season snowfall is NOT a harbinger for a good winter to follow...

Yeah, I was just curious.  Sometimes a cold fall is a sign of mild winter.  See October 2011....

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48 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Yeah, I was just curious.  Sometimes a cold fall is a sign of mild winter.  See October 2011....

Had to bring it up....

back to the shrink I go..........:lol:

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One of the top 2 weeks of winter I've experienced. I don't recall offhand what we ended up with for the season, but I measured 43" over 6 days in early January. 

MDT has not had 44" of snow in a whole winter since 2009-2010 to show how impressive your 6 day streak was.  MDT had two 70+ inch winters between 93 and 96 sandwiching one of the worst winters ever, snowfall wise, in 94-95. Only 9".    Interesting thing about 93-94 is that MDT had less than 1" going into the new year.  70+" fell in  Jan-March.

 

image.png

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Looking at the GFS and Euro MR forecasts it is entirely possible some people in PA will go the whole month with no rain (other than trace).  That is pretty impressive in a bad way. 

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

There was a big storm (24") in February of 83, but the winter of 83-84 was not a good one based off memory and my records. This is based as much on recollection as it is on facts, but I believe that generally speaking, abnormally cold or abnormally early season snowfall is NOT a harbinger for a good winter to follow...

83-84 looks like it was right around average with the total seasonal snowfall in Harrisburg with 31 inches that Winter.

Here is a nice reference chart of the seasonal snow totals for Harrisburg since 1980 courtesy of CTP.

 

3CAF30E5-9D41-4F0B-ABD2-9B962BD0BE49.png

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Looking at the GFS and Euro MR forecasts it is entirely possible some people in PA will go the whole month with no rain (other than trace).  That is pretty impressive in a bad way. 

 

 

 

We might as well save it up for December at this point and hope that there is some cold air around so that we can shovel it!

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

83-84 looks like it was right around average with the total seasonal snowfall in Harrisburg.

Here is a nice reference chart of the seasonal snow totals for Harrisburg since 1980 for courtesy of CTP.

 

Don't forget our barn burner of a winter last year, CTP just put the tallies of that one on their website that other day. Look at the huge difference between even some of the north central totals vs the northern border counties (US 6 corridor). Also, I dunno where that 11" was measured in the Altoona area but maybe I'm slant sticking haha. 

season_snow2019-2020.png.d334600f6d94868a8d7abdac9dedbd20.png

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Don't forget our barn burner of a winter last year, CTP just put the tallies of that one on their website that other day. Look at the huge difference between even some of the north central totals on the northern border counties (US 6 corridor). Also, I dunno where that 11" was measured in the Altoona area but maybe I'm slant sticking haha. 

season_snow2019-2020.png.d334600f6d94868a8d7abdac9dedbd20.png

Lol, I would like to forget last season!

Only 1 way to go this season. Even half of normal snow this season would seem decent after last year!

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28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

83-84 looks like it was right around average with the total seasonal snowfall in Harrisburg with 31 inches that Winter.

Here is a nice reference chart of the seasonal snow totals for Harrisburg since 1980 courtesy of CTP.

 

3CAF30E5-9D41-4F0B-ABD2-9B962BD0BE49.png

Thanks for that - I didn't live in the historic district back then, I was more or less in the central part of Lanco. My records show 20" which is about 8" below my long term average.

The 70s and 80s featured a lot more of snow>ice>rain storms, and there were many times when the Harrisburg area doubled what we got down this way.

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