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wdrag

Tropical connection NYC forum area Fri-Sun 8/28-30/20

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Throwing this out there:  I took a little longer look at origination of parcels this morning that arrive NYC via 00z/26 USA Models (NAM, GFS) and this will be interesting... dewpoints in the mid 70s FL-GA-MS etc.  If we get mid 70s dew points... pockets could be wetter than 3" in parts of our NYC forum in the 24 hours ending midnight Saturday night. 

Also,  not sure how long this will last but 00z/26 EC EPS is trending wetter. Attached widespread 24 hr 1".  Meanwhile, GEFS is/was still split north and south of us.  Also looking at the 06z GEFS 500mb... from what I can tell Laura may not move due east thru southern VA per multiple tracks and ICON, UK) but instead start turning toward 070 degrees per 500MB seemingly backing ahead of the next Great Lakes trough. I am not writing off a closer pass (DE) for Laura's center if it indeed holds off til Saturday evening. What that might mean up here, am unsure. 551851905_ScreenShot2020-08-26at9_13_01AM.thumb.png.e7b402859fadc2afa94667947dd7853c.png

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Being this strong a CAT 4 might as well be a 5.

The destruction is going to be the same.

 

I hope everyone gets out of the way. The pics on Friday will be devastating.

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Unfortunately, these rapid intensifications prior to landfall have become more common in recent years.
 

It’s very sobering to see that two of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes before landfall (Michael in 2018 and Harvey in 2017) since 1950 have occurred in the past two hurricane seasons, and that a significant increase in such rapidly intensifying hurricanes is predicted by some of our top computer models. Since 1950, here are the greatest 24-hour intensification rates prior to a U.S. landfall:

Since 1950, here are the greatest 24-hour intensification rates prior to a U.S. landfall:

Humberto 2007 (65 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall)
King 1950 (60 mph increase, Cat 4 landfall)
Eloise 1975 (60 mph increase, Cat 3 landfall)
Danny 1997 (50 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall)
Michael 2018 (45 mph increase, Cat 5 landfall)
Harvey 2017 (40 mph increase, Cat 4 landfall)

Cindy 2005 (40 mph increase, Cat 1 landfall)

 

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The Gulf was ripe for intensification with temps in the low 90s. Laura was interacting with land  until it entered the Gulf making the rapid intensification very possible and obviously it happened. I was surprised how well it held together with all the land interaction, which really was a sign it could explode when it hit those warm Gulf waters.

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18 hours ago, PB-99 said:

NHC, 20 foot storm surge possible.

Unsurvivable 

Luckily it would at least appear based on preliminary reports that the surge forecast was a bit overdone. The track ended up slightly further East in the end which may have spared some areas.

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Luckily it would at least appear based on preliminary reports that the surge forecast was a bit overdone. The track ended up slightly further East in the end which may have spared some areas.

But there's no reports out of the areas east of Cameron along the coast.  We have no idea yet what the surge was like. 

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Just now, Rjay said:

But there's no reports out of the areas east of Cameron along the coast.  We have no idea yet what the surge was like. 

Yes but the more Eastern track also appears to have somewhat spared the more heavily populated areas in and near Lake Charles. 

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Active late afternoon ahead for the forum and pretty sure severe in NJ and possibly LI with bands of good sized rains of 2-3 possible  If there is overlap with yesterday’s 1-3 rains in parts of our CT/se NYS forum, it would be there later this evening or overnite.  HRDPS looks pretty good to me.   Could be a big bow echo later  this afternoon in NJ?  


Saturday:   Please see WPC and SPC D2 QPF./ SVR 716A28

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Just saw the HRRR peel the bow echo southeast toward PHL instead of to near Toms River late today.  So I could be mistaken on my previous post. 

I did see EC parameters and it looks quite robust Saturday, even predawn,  for big rainfall producing thunderstorms...possibly in several bands...not only Ocean County to eastern LI, but maybe something near or just nw of EWR-HVN.  EC dewpoints rise to the mid 70s midday Saturday.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Just saw the HRRR peel the bow echo southeast toward PHL instead of to near Toms River late today.  So I could be mistaken on my previous post. 

I did see EC parameters and it looks quite robust Saturday, even predawn,  for big rainfall producing thunderstorms...possibly in several bands...not only Ocean County to eastern LI, but maybe something near or just nw of EWR-HVN.  EC dewpoints rise to the mid 70s midday Saturday.

Latest from SPC:

 

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If we get anything today it's probably going to be isolated. For starters, storms are currently in progress near I-80 in PA and Eastern Ohio. MCS's almost always dive Southeastward, so based on current observations, severe activity is probably limited to areas South of Philly and primarily more towards the Baltimore to DC corridor. 

 

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you guys are calling this a little early IMO.

in any case i'm going to get my run in now in case it does rain, l8r sk8ers.

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It's tough to get a lot of activity in here when you have a positively tilted trough with a closed ULL over Western Kentucky. If we had something to amplify the flow we would have had a soaking. I haven't looked at the Euro yet, but the only model left that brings in decent rains tomorrow is the 12z RGEM and even that is going to be hit or miss.

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The 12z GFS operational may have lost the big tropical threat towards the middle of September but it's still alive and well on the ensembles. Big -NAO signal as well.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_65.png

 

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23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS operational may have lost the big tropical threat towards the middle of September but it's still alive and well on the ensembles. Big -NAO signal as well.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_65.png

 

GFS Para also shows the potential with a huge trough in the middle of the country.

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17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What? We had one last night. Like 4 rounds of severe...

the organized storms missed to the northeast

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Sunday looks gorgeous, with strong cold air advection behind the post-tropical redevelopment of Laura.  80 degree high, 20 mph NW wind, should be relatively dry.  Good day for a hike but maybe a bit muddy out there.

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