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George BM

July Discobs 2020

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22 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah it seems they composed that AFD before looking at the 0z Euro. My gut says the immediate coast gets a glancing blow, but probably not much for our locations. The 12z runs will be telling, lol.

Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action,  and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling,  but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently. 

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13 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Out here, just southwest of Purcellville, I am sitting at 1.58 inches of rain for the last 31 days! The storm two nights ago dumped almost an inch of rain less than 1 mile from my home! Yesterday, the storms literally split around me and I ended up with .04" . I submitted the information to the Climate office. Meanwhile, friends of mine in the eastern part of Loudoun saw 8+ inches of rain in June and over 3 inches the last week! I have brown grass and a dusty dry yard! 

 

Weird how that works.  I've had summers like that in the Germantown area where storms miss me left and right and I get cracked garden beds and fried grass.  This year my area is a rain magnet with almost 8 inches for June and 1.4 for July already.  I bet my area gets nailed Saturday evening.

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Just now, frd said:

Yep, although for any surfers looks like some good wave action,  and for the novice surfers I am eyeing the middle of next week for a period of offshore winds and a later afternoon incoming high tide, along with diminishing risks for rip tides . Ocean very warm right now, look for eh maybe some up-welling,  but then a another spike up towards the mid to upper 70's with the next heat wave late next week. Many stations at 72 to 74 presently. 

I never was expecting to see much here from the coastal. Almost never works out with a trough so close to our west, outside of having some monstrous blocking Atlantic ridge.

In the latest Model Diagnostic discussion (update) from WPC, the preference is basically to split the difference between the 12z and 0z Euro runs lol.

Quote

Preference: 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF mean blend Confidence: Average ...

07Z update...

The 00Z ECMWF's mid-level center of the East Coast low shifted farther away from the coast compared to its previous 12Z cycle, with its surface reflection also moving farther offshore, but with less displacement compared to the upper levels. The 00Z UKMET adjusted in the direction of the 00Z ECMWF but remains a bit farther south with its 850-500 mb low, as does the 00Z CMC. The preference is to be nearest to the average of the GEFS/ECMWF mean positions, which is in between the 00Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF, but closer to the ECMWF position...or between the 12Z and 00Z ECMWF cycles.

 

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Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30.

I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM.  Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. :stun:

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14 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30.

I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM.  Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. :stun:

Nope. Nope. Nopity nope. Imagine trying to go for an early morning run with temps in the upper 80s with heat indices in the upper 90s. :axe:

 

Currently a, by comparsion, comfortable 84/68 at IAD.

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39 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30.

I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM.  Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. :stun:

Too cold for me

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Not too bad so far today sitting on the deck in shade; just 82 at 11:30.

I checked Key West out of curiosity with the outrageous 91 degree water temp...currently 92/78, and they were 89/76 at FOUR AM.  Only went down to 88/75 from 5 to 6 am with a thunderstorm. :stun:

I went running late Tuesday afternoon and my shirt looked like I had jumped in a pool just 20 minutes in. Last night was hot, but not nearly as humid and more do-able.

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WB 12Z EURO...back to pounding the Delmarva with some light rain as far back as the '95 corridor.  Close enough to keep DCA with cloud cover and below 90?

ecmwf-deterministic-md-total_precip_inch-4418400.png

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27 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

WRF-ARW model has 10 inch lollies in southern Delaware. :weenie:

12z 3k NAM and now the 12z Euro also have nice lollies down that way.

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I think I’m in the Canadian camp with this one...I think most of the activity stays offshore and the system doesn’t get organized enough to have such an organized band of precip to the west of circulation. Would have to be some significant changes in next 24 hours in the structure to really pound the shore like some models are showing. Just my opinion 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

New England is melting down over that Euro run so I may need to take refuge here. :lol: 

ADATT

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@C.A.P.E.s yard crushed in the above Euro . No more sprinkler this summer for his yard . 

Just took a look at the Euro and there's a heck of a strong vort diving through Ohio at 42 hr  that wasn't there before lol. The surface low in Ohio gets stronger then the coastal low - sub 1000mb ...interesting.  Definitely some partial phasing of the 2 systems it appears . Pretty close in for such changes at h5

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

I think I’m in the Canadian camp with this one...I think most of the activity stays offshore and the system doesn’t get organized enough to have such an organized band of precip to the west of circulation. Would have to be some significant changes in next 24 hours in the structure to really pound the shore like some models are showing. Just my opinion 

I lean more offshore too but there’s so much track sensitivity here. I think we’re really waiting until the 00z suite of runs for more clarity. That cycle should have recon data included. 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

I think I’m in the Canadian camp with this one...I think most of the activity stays offshore and the system doesn’t get organized enough to have such an organized band of precip to the west of circulation. Would have to be some significant changes in next 24 hours in the structure to really pound the shore like some models are showing. Just my opinion 

I think I would have to call it the "ICON camp", as it has been leading the charge with the offshore track/not much precip on west side idea.

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I lean more offshore too but there’s so much track sensitivity here. I think we’re really waiting until the 00z suite of runs for more clarity. That cycle should have recon data included. 

I concur. Seems the 2 main elements to watch are how rapidly the low gets its act together, and the interplay with the OV energy.

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

@C.A.P.E.s yard crushed in the above Euro . No more sprinkler this summer for his yard . 

Just took a look at the Euro and there's a heck of a strong vort diving through Ohio at 42 hr  that wasn't there before lol. The surface low in Ohio gets stronger then the coastal low - sub 1000mb ...interesting.  Definitely some partial phasing of the 2 systems it appears . Pretty close in for such changes at h5

This is interesting, and the degree of interaction with that trough/energy is going to be a factor in the ultimate outcome.

 

And lol even if my yard got 5" of rain from this, if it doesn't rain for a week after, that sprinkler will be getting another workout.

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I concur. Seems the 2 main elements to watch are how rapidly the low gets its act together, and the interplay with the OV energy.

One of the things I find so fascinating about tropical is that there always seem to be these random features that change the game close in. Timing of a trough, strength of a ridge, wobble of a center.

If you’re in the game, you have to watch all the way to the end. 

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6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

One of the things I find so fascinating about tropical is that there always seem to be these random features that change the game close in. Timing of a trough, strength of a ridge, wobble of a center.

If you’re in the game, you have to watch all the way to the end. 

Bolded ....is exactly the reason for your passion and mine and everyone else's in this hobby :D. The fine details are always subject to change and another reason I love tracking.  My yard will be caught in between ( Though the Euro did take me from sunny to sprinkles) but this will be fun tracking the last minute changes and resulting effects .

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28 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

New England is melting down over that Euro run so I may need to take refuge here. :lol: 

They effed up by making a thread. We know a thing or 2 down here. B)

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mount Holly has hoisted a FFW for pretty much their whole forecast area.

Your yard will be crushed.  I'll be at work in the Catoctins trying to keep the sun out of my eyes tomorrow :sun:

 

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