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General severe weather discussion


Quincy
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Ch. 11 is doing a good job tracking the hail cores with their online live coverage:

https://dfw.cbslocal.com/

I wonder if he is new to the area, he keeps reading these often random/obscure local names off the map.  Just read 3 that I've never heard of and I wanted to tell him, "Dude, everybody just calls all of that Colleyville."

I first tried channel 5, and after 5 minutes of nonstop ads gave up.

 

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img.png

MD 590 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 0590
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1013 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

   Areas affected...Parts  of central through northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111513Z - 111615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate and
   become increasingly widespread north through northeast of the
   Edwards Plateau and adjacent Big Country through the Interstate
   30/20 corridors by Noon to 2 PM CDT.  This may include at least some
   risk for severe hail early, with potential to organize later this
   afternoon, if not before.  It is not yet certain a watch will be
   needed, but trends will continue to be monitored for this
   possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Latest model output indicates a substantial
   strengthening of large-scale ascent north/northeast of the Edwards
   Plateau, across parts of the Texas Big Country through the
   Interstates 30/20 corridors of north central and northeast Texas by
   17-19Z.  This is forecast to occur in response to strengthening
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, beneath increasingly
   divergent high-level flow, as a west-southwesterly subtropical jet
   streak continues to nose across the northern Mexican Plateau through
   the Texas Gulf coast vicinity.

   This lift will largely be focused above at least shallow cool/stable
   surface-based air to the north of stalled/slow moving frontal zone
   now extending across the upper Texas coastal plain through parts of
   Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley.  However,
   seasonably moist air above the frontal inversion, and beneath steep
   lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air, is
   contributing to moderate to large CAPE, supportive of vigorous
   thunderstorm development.

   While high-level flow is strong, lower/mid tropospheric flow is
   somewhat modest to weak.  Coupled with the likelihood for
   increasingly widespread convection through midday and early
   afternoon, hail potential in the longer term remains unclear. 
   However, given the initial thermodynamic profiles, there may be a
   window of opportunity for large hail in the initially more discrete
   early storm development.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32609949 32959809 33149610 32439453 31079569 30959757
               30349983 30570081 31300040 32609949 
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
128 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Houston County in southeastern Texas...
  Eastern Madison County in southeastern Texas...
  West central Walker County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 200 PM CDT.

* At 128 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 8 miles east of Madisonville, moving north at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Houston, eastern Madison and west central Walker
  Counties.
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Looks like a weakening closed low will be moving into the plains early next week which shouldn't bring much of a severe threat I would think, at least for the first part of the week. Could bring quite a bit of rain though.

SPC hinting at a possible severe threat after that though. 

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24 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Looks like a weakening closed low will be moving into the plains early next week which shouldn't bring much of a severe threat I would think, at least for the first part of the week. Could bring quite a bit of rain though.

SPC hinting at a possible severe threat after that though. 

Several News Channels (KFOR News 4 & News 9 to name a few.) have highlighted Next Monday & Tuesday to have potential severe weather . . . The uncertainty on the Cut-off low is too high . . . 

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Several News Channels (KFOR News 4 & News 9 to name a few.) have highlighted Next Monday & Tuesday to have potential severe weather . . . The uncertainty on the Cut-off low is too high . . . 

It may have some severe potential but likely not much

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I foresee several consecutive marginal/slight risk severe days over the next week but I think clearly heavy rain/flooding seems to be the bigger story. With a closed low the shear profiles are likely to be junky and less than ideal. Mesoscale enhancements due to boundaries from previous convection may lead to a surprise tornado day in there, but overall still looks relatively unexciting as far as a large synoptic scale tornado setup. 

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34 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I foresee several consecutive marginal/slight risk severe days over the next week but I think clearly heavy rain/flooding seems to be the bigger story. With a closed low the shear profiles are likely to be junky and less than ideal. Mesoscale enhancements due to boundaries from previous convection may lead to a surprise tornado day in there, but overall still looks relatively unexciting as far as a large synoptic scale tornado setup. 

Took several looks at the models, the uncertainly is just too high right now, I've seen 2019 as a rulebreaker on the Supercells, they were literally developing over SATURATED soils!

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A mess...

000
FXUS64 KFWD 131906
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...New Long Term...
Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged
active weather period consisting of widespread significant
rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy
these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those
days will be scarce during the extended forecast period.

By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place
across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present
across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing
to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday
afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap
is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and
the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s
unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or
reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep
convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas
along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the
weekend will be determining whether this convection could
organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area
later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated
this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it
appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant
moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance
eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large-
scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these
events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an
inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning
occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open
the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later
in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a
stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with
an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone.
  • Haha 4
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3 hours ago, Powerball said:

A mess...

000
FXUS64 KFWD 131906
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
206 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

...New Long Term...
Confidence is increasing regarding the potential for a prolonged
active weather period consisting of widespread significant
rainfall/flooding and some strong/severe thunderstorms. Enjoy
these couple days of sun and dry weather because it appears those
days will be scarce during the extended forecast period.

By Saturday, a relatively zonal flow regime should be in place
across most of the US with warm/moist southerly flow present
across the Southern Plains. Warm advection may begin contributing
to isolated/scattered convective development by Saturday
afternoon across the western portion of the CWA where a weak cap
is expected to erode via diabatic heating. With modest shear and
the lack of a boundary to focus convective development, it`s
unlikely that these storms would be able to become organized or
reach strong/severe limits. The greater potential for deep
convection will reside far west of the forecast area in West Texas
along an active dryline. Our main forecast problem for the
weekend will be determining whether this convection could
organize into one or more MCSs and move into the forecast area
later Saturday night or Sunday morning. Have generally indicated
this type of solution with the current PoP configuration, and it
appears that the 30-40 kts of low-level flow and resultant
moisture flux could maintain convective clusters as they advance
eastward, despite generally decreasing MUCAPE and modest large-
scale ascent. Sunday`s forecast will largely hinge on these
events (or lack thereof), and a morning MCS may result in an
inactive remainder of the day if sufficient convective overturning
occurs. Alternatively, no overnight/morning convection would open
the door for some dryline activity to make it into our CWA later
in the day. It`s also possible activity north of us along a
stalled frontal zone in Oklahoma could make a southward push with
an expanding cold pool or effective frontal zone.

Also want to mention that it's a tough forecast . . .

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3 hours ago, Quincy said:

Chased a high based supercell in far northwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening. 

Quite a bit of wind and hail with this storm. Pronounced inverted-V thermodynamic profiles (71/46 at GLD 01z).

While I’ve been to the Midwest before to chase, this is my first time doing it with just one other person. I was on that cell today. Definitely some impressive inflow. Great pic and video as always.

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