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COVID-19 Talk

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

This is not a good argument for shutting down the entire planet. The common cold frequently kills this population. The flu ravages them every single year. Thousands upon thousands of deaths. I suspect most 80 year olds don't want the earth shut down and people's lives ruined to ensure they get a few more months of life locked in their houses...

@PhineasC you are using way too much logic in your thought process here... we have plenty of data that shows that this virus spreads much like any other seasonal respiratory virus.  The faster it spreads, the faster you achieve immunity in a target population and the disease naturally extinguishes itself.  This is just how things work.. the "flatten the curve" approach actually scares me because we are effectively f-ing with nature.. we are attempting to interfere in areas where we really have no business interfering.  

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Just now, PhineasC said:

It seems clear to me you are spending too much time deep into out-of-context stats and letting them eat away at you. You should read some flu stats for the past 50 years...

Flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

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37 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Hospitalization rates are here: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e3.htm

Good to know 80% of the population has endless economic resources and not living paycheck to paycheck like most reports I've seen. When the government tit is dry I have a feeling they will be singing a different tune. Good luck

 

You’re points have some validity but you don’t convince anyone by always saying it in the most abrasive obnoxious way possible. You’re worried the gov ability to assist is invalid though since they literally print the money. They can never run out of it. 

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

This isn’t the flu.

It’s not the flu.  But the flu is something we can compare it too.  Right now there have been approximately 25000 Covid related deaths in the US.  Every year we deal with something like 40000-80000 flu related deaths (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine that year and the nastiness of the strain).  This has the greatest impact on the elderly population with preexisting conditions.  If we end up with 100k plus deaths over the next couple months then we can say this is not comm mom parable to the flu.  We are all taking drastic and unprecedented steps to slow the spread.  Over the course of the next month or two more and more people are going to change their views on these measures.  You can see it starting to happen around the country.  No one is demanding people that are scared leave their homes.  But people will start to demand they be allowed to leave their homes without the threat of fine or imprisonment.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That could be 18-24 months away. There is zero chance of that, and you shouldn't hope for it. I haven't heard experts like Fauci calling for that either. You'll much prefer the coronavirus deaths if we run out of food and there are widespread riots with 30%+ unemployment...

I don't believe mitigation is 18-24 months away, unless we seriously mess up the time we've bought... which I suppose is possible.

Once we can have massive mask production + serology tests + contact tracing + effectively bring the numbers down to a point where we can effectively contact trace, we'll probably be able to start to move towards normalcy.

 

True normalcy probably won't be here for 18 months though, that is true.

But I don't think we'll be locked down like we are now for 18 months.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

So here's the problem:

 

We do not have a national health system, and we are not currently nationalizing our healthcare production, it's still privatized. Companies are VERY apt to not put a lot of investment into scaling up to meet a glut of demand when that demand will go away in a year or two. Multiple testing companies have already said this. Local labs with experience with scaling up for Swine Flu, for instance, saw huge revenue losses after it was over.

 

That + massive supply chain problems in  procuring testing swabs, chemical reagents, etc. means companies have very little willpower to significantly try to upscale their capacity.

We can overcome these problems if we decided it was important enough.  And to me, 2,000+ people dying a day while we're all locked in our homes is an important enough reason. 

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

It’s not the flu.  But the flu is something we can compare it too.  Right now there have been approximately 25000 Covid related deaths in the US.  Every year we deal with something like 40000-80000 flu related deaths (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine that year and the nastiness of the strain).  This has the greatest impact on the elderly population with preexisting conditions.  If we end up with 100k plus deaths over the next couple months then we can say this is not comm mom parable to the flu.  We are all taking drastic and unprecedented steps to slow the spread.  Over the course of the next month or two more and more people are going to change their views on these measures.  You can see it starting to happen around the country.  No one is demanding people that are scared leave their homes.  But people will start to demand they be allowed to leave their homes without the threat of fine or imprisonment.

At no point in a flu season do 2k people die per day. Especially not under lockdown. Do the math on what that would be like with rampant spread, over a long period of time.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

It's probably not even legal to mandate virus testing before people can go to work or leave home. It'll be challenged in court, no matter what.

The South Korean population is heavily concentrated in urban corridors that can be closed off far more easily than our dispersed population. There is also a far greater sense of collectivism in that country. Culturally, they have been practicing social distancing and mask wearing for decades already. They didn't need to learn this like we did. They remember SARS very well.

We are much more like Italy than South Korea, but that's also not a great comparison.

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

We can overcome these problems if we decided it was important enough.  And to me, 2,000+ people dying a day while we're all locked in our homes is an important enough reason. 

Agreed. And I think we CAN get enough collective willpower to do it. But we need some real leadership and centralized direction because right now we're being quite a bit haphazzard. 

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3 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

So here's the problem:

 

We do not have a national health system, and we are not currently nationalizing our healthcare production, it's still privatized. Companies are VERY apt to not put a lot of investment into scaling up to meet a glut of demand when that demand will go away in a year or two. Multiple testing companies have already said this. Local labs with experience with scaling up for Swine Flu, for instance, saw huge revenue losses after it was over.

 

That + massive supply chain problems in  procuring testing swabs, chemical reagents, etc. means companies have very little willpower to significantly try to upscale their capacity.

I wouldn't b so quick to blame our health system. Lombardy has socialized medicine and we saw what happened there. 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's probably not even legal to mandate virus testing before people can go to work or leave home. It'll be challenged in court, no matter what.

The South Korean population is heavily concentrated in urban corridors that can be closed off far more easily than our dispersed population. There is also a far greater sense of collectivism in that country. Culturally, they have been practicing social distancing and mask wearing for decades already. They didn't need to learn this like we did. They remember SARS very well.

We are much more like Italy than South Korea, but that's also not a great comparison.

So why can't we adapt and overcome this challenge?  Why do have to give up?  I don't understand this mentality.  Our country has achieved FAR greater things than this.  We sent two armies simultaneously to different sides of the globe to defeat 2 different brutal facist regimes in WW2.  We can figure out how to test and isolate cases of this virus and quickly if we choose to. 

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4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

Most of these deaths are from infections that surely predated the lockdown. I am not sure why you are conflating the two. There is not necessarily a causation link there. Death is a lagging indicator.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I wouldn't b so quick to blame our health system. Lombardy has socialized medicine and we saw what happened there. 

I'm more saying, we're not willing to centralize our supply chains and response right now. I'm not talking about socialized medicine per se, which is a more charged political topic. Sorry - not trying to veer off into the other implications of it.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

So why can't we adapt and overcome this challenge?  Why do have to give up?  I don't understand this mentality.  Our country has achieved FAR greater things than this.  We sent two armies simultaneously to different sides of the globe to defeat 2 different brutal facist regimes in WW2.  We can figure out how to test and isolate cases of this virus and quickly if we choose to. 

No, we should try but it will take another 6 months which some of us think will end up being way worse than the virus.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

I'm more saying, we're not willing to centralize our supply chains and response right now. I'm not talking about socialized medicine per se, which is a more charged political topic. Sorry - not trying to veer off into the other implications of it.

That's right and it's how we are here. That's why we can't test like South Korea or Germany overnight. Our system is not set up for that. Each state will do whatever they want.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

No, we should try but it will take another 6 months which some of us think will end up being way worse than the virus.

I think we really put our mind to it we could get this up and running faster than 6 months.  If the federal government REALLY took this seriously and got all the states on board I think in a month or two we could have the testing capacity to start opening things up.

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I think we really put our mind to it we could get this up and running faster than 6 months.  If the federal government REALLY took this seriously and got all the states on board I think in a month or two we could have the testing capacity to start opening things up.

lol good luck with that. 

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6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

It’s not the flu.  But the flu is something we can compare it too.  Right now there have been approximately 25000 Covid related deaths in the US.  Every year we deal with something like 40000-80000 flu related deaths (depending on the effectiveness of the vaccine that year and the nastiness of the strain).  This has the greatest impact on the elderly population with preexisting conditions.  If we end up with 100k plus deaths over the next couple months then we can say this is not comm mom parable to the flu.  We are all taking drastic and unprecedented steps to slow the spread.  Over the course of the next month or two more and more people are going to change their views on these measures.  You can see it starting to happen around the country.  No one is demanding people that are scared leave their homes.  But people will start to demand they be allowed to leave their homes without the threat of fine or imprisonment.

What are seasonal influenza-related deaths?

Seasonal influenza-related deaths are deaths that occur in people for whom influenza infection was likely a contributor to the cause of death, but not necessarily the primary cause of death.

Does CDC know the exact number of people who die from seasonal flu each year?

CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year. 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Most of these deaths are from infections that surely predated the lockdown. I am not sure why you are conflating the two. There is not necessarily a causation link there. Death is a lagging indicator.

Deaths are a lagging indicator but it seems to lag case patterns by about 2 weeks. It's relevant to say while under lockdown. It looks like they're likely stabilized/plateaud at this 2k/day range. Judging from Italy, we'll likely be in the 1.5k+ range for quite a long time. It's relevant and shows how bad it could get with unrestrained spread. 

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Baltimore City requiring everyone to wear masks when outside their homes

i have a feeling Hogan will be pushing the same. DC mayor did the same this morning.

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5 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

At no point in a flu season do 2k people die per day. Especially not under lockdown. Do the math on what that would be like with rampant spread, over a long period of time.

If this virus is very contagious and has already infected millions of people, that means herd immunity will hit faster than is usual with respiratory illnesses. There is a belief that this disease spreads much faster than the flu and therefore could burn itself out faster than the flu. Instead of 60-80k deaths over six months, we get them all in 2 months. Hence the "flatten the curve" push to ensure we have adequate hospital resources to ride it out. Looking at raw death numbers is not going to give you a good picture of reality.

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I think we really put our mind to it we could get this up and running faster than 6 months.  If the federal government REALLY took this seriously and got all the states on board I think in a month or two we could have the testing capacity to start opening things up.

The legal challenges from the states and locals would be hard to overcome in a short period unless Trump went more authoritarian and top-down, which we all know won't be received well at all... He already tried that with opening the economy and was shot down. States will open piecemeal.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

If this virus is very contagious and has already infected millions of people, that means herd immunity will hit faster than is usual with respiratory illnesses. There is a belief that this disease spreads much faster than the flu and therefore could burn itself out faster than the flu. Instead of 60-80k deaths over six months, we get them all in 2 months. Hence the "flatten the curve" push to ensure we have adequate hospital resources to ride it out. Looking at raw death numbers is not going to give you a good picture of reality.

Raw deaths give you a perfect picture of reality, it's literally what we are dealing with. Right now, if people are dying en masse while we've started to socially distance and quarantine and isolate, it shows how important it is, as many many many more will die without.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol good luck with that. 

We don't have a lot of options.  As you can see on this board, people are hungry to get back to life and won't be locked down forever.  

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37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re points have some validity but you don’t convince anyone by always saying it in the most abrasive obnoxious way possible. You’re worried the gov ability to assist is invalid though since they literally print the money. They can never run out of it. 

You need to take a basic economics course if you think that you can print money endlessly and not have it's value go to zero

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Just now, PhineasC said:

The legal challenges from the states and locals would be hard to overcome in a short period unless Trump went more authoritarian and top-down, which we all know won't be received well at all... He already tried that with opening the economy and was shot down. States will open piecemeal.

Yeah well I think he was shot down because opening up during the peak of an epidemic isn't a good idea.  I think everyone thinks that massively scaling up testing is a good idea, and would be on board.  And also, for the record, I agree with you.  I don't think a lockdown anywhere near another 6 months is feasible.  

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

We don't have a lot of options.  As you can see on this board, people are hungry to get back to life and won't be locked down forever.  

I was mostly laughing at the thought of Fed govt actually trying to work with states to open things back up. I get it, the economy needs to get moving soon before things gets worse for many

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Do gang-color bandanas count as facial coverings for this order?

Bandanas are the best right now. You can go post apocalyptic fashion in a great way.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Raw deaths give you a perfect picture of reality, it's literally what we are dealing with. Right now, if people are dying en masse while we've started to socially distance and quarantine and isolate, it shows how important it is, as many many many more will die without.

No, man. It's not a good metric unless you want to be really paranoid and miss the big picture. That's why we don't look at flu deaths per day or viral pneumonia deaths per day or sepsis deaths per day or aneurysm deaths per day. If you looked at that stuff you'd never leave the house. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

No, man. It's not a good metric unless you want to be really paranoid and miss the big picture. That's why we don't look at flu deaths per day or viral pneumonia deaths per day or sepsis deaths per day or aneurysm deaths per day. If you looked at that stuff you'd never leave the house. 

I am sure the public health experts and scientists are well aware at the differences between this and the flu, and are making decisions based on that as a result. I know there are theories out there that "everyone is already mostly immune" and "it's not that deadly" and "it's not that bad" but that's not what the sum evidence and public health experts are saying, and a lot of us personally know people suffering with this disease and nurses on the front lines struggling with PPE so....

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