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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

I will apologize in advance if your are in fact deleting her posts. But if you are leaving  here attacks on me standing, on what was a civil discussion with others, and yet deleting my responses/defenses against those attacks I find that hardly fair.

i didn't see any attacks against you, showme. she was arguing against the articles that you posted. that is not an attack against you. 

not sure how to handle this situation as i did not find her posts to be off-based or wrong. 

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13 minutes ago, mappy said:

i didn't see any attacks against you, showme. she was arguing against the articles that you posted. that is not an attack against you. 

not sure how to handle this situation as i did not find her posts to be off-based or wrong. 

If you saw no issues with her posts then I am not sure why you saw issues with mine and deleted a couple of mine as well as another's post who was in defense of me. I find it disconcerting that we can have a civil discussion in general over what we saw as far as response and yet we have her jump in out of the blue (in a thread I haven't seen her in to the best of my knowledge) claiming political bias on my part and I need to take it elsewhere. And surprisingly <sarcasm> enough I sure didn't see here go after the others that initiated this discussion.Now why would she go on the attack on me that was responding to others comments and yet leave theirs alone? Maybe  we were seeing political bias on her part? I try my damnedest to keep my opinions as unbiased as possible. So for some to jump in claiming otherwise just because it doesn't fit what they want to hear pisses the hell out of me. 

eta: I didn't post any articles, that was someone else. She just had issues with my opinion.

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

If you saw no issues with her posts then I am not sure why you saw issues with mine and deleted a couple of mine as well as another's post who was in defense of me. I find it disconcerting that we can have a civil discussion in general over what we saw as far as response and yet we have her jump in out of the blue (in a thread I haven't seen her in to the best of my knowledge) claiming political bias on my part and I need to take it elsewhere. And surprisingly <sarcasm> enough I sure didn't see here go after the others that initiated this discussion.Now why would she go on the attack on me that was responding to others comments and yet leave theirs alone? Maybe  we were seeing political bias on her part? I try my damnedest to keep my opinions as unbiased as possible. So for some to jump in claiming otherwise just because it doesn't fit what they want to hear pisses the hell out of me. 

eta: I didn't post any articles, that was someone else. She just had issues with my opinion.

sounds good. we are moving on from this anyways.

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47 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Everyone comes at this from their own biases.  I will go so far as to say I wouldn't trust any news article or scientific study since it's so early. In fact the only person I would trust it's Dr. Fauci, even though he downplayed the situation. And at 79,  I don't think he gives a rat's arse if his feelings now are not in line with any particular political party. People need to read all articles instead of the ones that are advocated by one party.

In Fauci we trust.

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MD 10am update

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

MD 10am update

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Jeez, still getting a lot of positives on not that many tests.  That's 36% positive rate.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Jeez, still getting a lot of positives on not that many tests.  That's 36% positive rate.

Yeah, Maryland is dramatically undertesting. That's WAY too high a positive rate.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

Yeah, Maryland is dramatically undertesting. That's WAY too high a positive rate.

This is why I'm worried about how long it's going to take to get back to normal.   The testing infrastructure for whatever reason just still isn't anywhere close to where it needs to be, and as we all know the most likely path back to normalcy is testing/contact tracing. 

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Jeez, still getting a lot of positives on not that many tests.  That's 36% positive rate.

just be careful when doing that math. we know there is a lag on when people get tested and when the results come back. its not accurate based on real-time

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

just be careful when doing that math. we know there is a lag on when people get tested and when the results come back. its not accurate based on real-time

Yeah but still, of the ~2,000 tests they ran yesterday ~700 were positive.  Regardless of when those tests are from that's still a high positive rate. 

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah but still, of the ~2,000 tests they ran yesterday ~700 were positive.  Regardless of when those tests are from that's still a high positive rate. 

but they weren't run yesterday. stop saying that. 

its not an accurate picture of the true spread in the state. its not an accurate picture of the true mortality rate. its the only data we have, but everyone needs to understand there are lags in when results come back. both positive and negative. 

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Ideal world you want to aim for a 5-7% positive rate, that usually means you're catching all the cases because it means you are testing liberally. South Korea has a 2% positive rate, Canada 6%, Australia 2%, Norway 5%, Thailand 3.5%, Singapore 3.4%, Iceland 5%.

 

All places that are basically testing everyone that even so much as has a chance of having the bug, all places with things fairly under control right now.

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High positive rate means you're only testing people that are hospitalized or experiencing severe symptoms, meaning lots of people are just wandering about untested who likely have it.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

High positive rate means you're only testing people that are hospitalized or experiencing severe symptoms, meaning lots of people are just wandering about untested who likely have it.

Most likely, yes. 

we will never have a true scope of numbers until its over. until they test people for it afterwards. until then we have to make do with what is published, but there is always a lag in the data. always always always. 

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8 minutes ago, mappy said:

but they weren't run yesterday. stop saying that. 

its not an accurate picture of the true spread in the state. its not an accurate picture of the true mortality rate. its the only data we have, but everyone needs to understand there are lags in when results come back. both positive and negative. 

Just semantics, I’m not arguing, of “the test results received yesterday” there was a very high + rate. 

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Just semantics, I’m not arguing, of “the test results received yesterday” there was a very high + rate. 

yes, i think thats the proper wording. Of what results were processed and results released, we have a high rate. correct.

sorry.. my scientific brain can only handle so much semantics lol

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13 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

High positive rate means you're only testing people that are hospitalized or experiencing severe symptoms, meaning lots of people are just wandering about untested who likely have it.

Hopefully not wandering around but yeah.

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new county level data

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17 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Italy today surpassed the IHME model’s total death estimate of 20,333 that was modeled to have been reached on May 12th. 

The model only predicts less than 1,000 more deaths between now and the end of the month.  If the prediction of a sharp dropoff in deaths are true, it may still end up pretty close.

Also, the 20,333 is very close to the cone of uncertainty in the model for total deaths as of today.   

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1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

The model only predicts less than 1,000 more deaths between now and the end of the month.  If the prediction of a sharp dropoff in deaths are true, it may still end up pretty close.

Also, the 20,333 is very close to the cone of uncertainty in the model for total deaths as of today.   

If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

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21 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

If you started following the Italy actual numbers vs. the IHME model last week, it was clear the IHME projection did not allow for the gradual drop-off in daily deaths that started around 4/6. Today, they still saw 566 deaths and are only about 1000 more deaths or so from going past the *upper* bound (less than 22,000) of what you're calling the cone of uncertainty.

Yes I see what you are saying, but it looks like the model hasn’t been updated for several days.  Also, I don’t think it’s realistic to expect a model to accurately nail the amount of deaths within a few hundred or even a few thousand.  I think we have to see the final results before we can judge overall, as its possible more people die today than expected and less people die next week, with the end result being more or less the same.

How has it been doing with respect to  hospitalizations?  If it’s way off on that then I think that’s more telling.  Just my $.02.  

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Is "herd immunity" a bad word or something.. I mentioned it to my coworkers and they said I was as bad as an antivaxer.. and now I feel like said something wrong.

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10 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Is "herd immunity" a bad word or something.. I mentioned it to my coworkers and they said I was as bad as an antivaxer.. and now I feel like said something wrong.

Maybe they thought u said "nerd immunity ":D

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Maybe they thought u said "nerd immunity ":D

Wow.. Sweden is really dedicated to being the world's "control" group. You probably argue China was a control group too since they didnt close schools until after their peek.  

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39 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Wow.. Sweden is really dedicated to being the world's "control" group. You probably argue China was a control group too since they didnt close schools until after their peek.  

Sweden's economy is tanking regardless. Swedish markets are down 17%, GDP decline forecast is -3.4% compared to the US's -2.8%, nursing homes are getting widespread virus.

There's every indication that Sweden is seeing a restraint from economic activity even with their laxer lockdown. Ridership  on their public transportation is 60% down, air travel is 85% down, events are being canceled, unemployment is rising and will be at 9% soon there. They registered more unemployment claims last week than during the 2008 crisis. It just goes to show that even "opening things up" a bit, people still aren't willing to engage in economic activity during a pandemic.

 

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2020/0413/Sweden-broke-norms-with-low-scale-lockdown.-Is-it-working?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&cmpid=TW&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586793414

 

"And while most businesses in Sweden are still operating, the economic cost of the pandemic is already being felt. Last week, 25,350 Swedes registered as unemployed, according to the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce – a larger increase than during the 2008 financial crisis."

We're going to be in a global economic downturn no matter what. May as well restrict deaths while we're at it.

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The point is... I think that people are going to practice social distancing by themselves now regardless of what governments do. We're seeing mass, behavioral change from people which is a good thing - it'll slow down the virus no matter what the heads of states declare.

 

The unfortunate flipside of the coin to that though is that the economy is unlikely to react much to any sort of "opening."

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51 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Wow.. Sweden is really dedicated to being the world's "control" group. You probably argue China was a control group too since they didnt close schools until after their peek.  

My comment was just meant to loosen things up in here ...ease  tension etc . That's all:)

I no nothing about Sweds'.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

My comment was just meant to loosen things up in here ...ease  tension etc . That's all:)

I no nothing about Sweds'.

I know.. sorry.. it was just me thinking out loud.. I get the joke!  I actually have a really good attitude about all of this all.. can we do a contest on this.. or would that be a little too much?  Maybe a contest on the exit strategy?

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