COVID-19 Talk

[psuhoffman]

11 hours ago, supernovasky said:

2,400 deaths was the final total.

 

A significant bump over yesterday. 

 

11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah today has been particularly horrid in that department...(is that our highest daily total?) Was looking a little better Sunday and Monday...but alas

 

11 hours ago, supernovasky said:

It's our highest by about 400.

I would take yesterday's numbers with a grain of salt wrt to declaring it a "SIGNIFICANT" jump up because for several weeks there has been a repetative pattern of lower reported deaths over the weekend and then a significant spike on Tuesday.  The only logical explanation is that changes in how they are reported and issues with contacting family before they are made public wrt the weekends causes a backlog that then hits the reports as "new deaths" on Tuesdays.  That makes more sense that the virus cares what day of the week it is and suddenly becomes more lethal every Tuesday.  We will have to see what the numbers look like today before drawing any larger conclusions about the trend.  

That said the numbers do suggest (even taking into account the Tuesday bump effect) that while we may have flattened the curve that flattening happened at a fairly high level and we have not yet seen a significant move down the backside of the curve.  

[mappy]

MD 10am update, +560 cases, +47 deaths

 

[mappy]

 

[mappy]

mmmm deaths yesterday is higher than the 47 on the dashboard

so that would be +100 for the day

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

mmmm deaths yesterday is higher than the 47 on the dashboard

so that would be +100 for the day

You're going to see some re-analysis and back log reporting over the next 10 -17 days as we near the peak.  The reporting system and staff area realllly being strained.

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

You're going to see some re-analysis and back log reporting over the next 10 -17 days as we near the peak.  The reporting system and staff area realllly being strained.

yeah, i expected it to happen. but +100 in a day is a pretty big jump

[psuhoffman]

Even if yesterdays spike was partially due to the observed "Tuesday bump" each week...it is apparent we have not made much progress down the curve yet.  We may be slightly past the peak but still very early in the decline and that decline is likely to be slow not sharp.  That said (and I do not want to get into a political argument with anyone, I have mostly been avoiding that but this is my personal take and yes its biased because EVERYONE is biased by their own experiences in life) I find it ridiculous that we are suddenly talking about a quick opening and relaxation of our societal covid preventative measures when we are just now very close to or only slightly past the peak of the pandemic.   IMO the discussion is being driven by some people's impatience and frustration and economic concerns.  I have not heard one shred of evidence from a virologist that inclines me to think opening everything back up soon is a good idea medically.  And I am suspect that an early opening which could lead to another spike in cases would have any economic benefit.  We are over a month into this now...and we are going to just throw all that way and go in a different direction?  Then we might end up back at square one and have wasted all this time and be starting all over again.  Plus if a significant number are sick the economy won't be "fine" no matter what the policy is.  This just seems crazy to me.  And I am NOT coming at this from a place of not wanting to work.  I am working.  All my classes are online.  I have collaborate sessions with my students everyday, I am posting and grading work daily.  I am contacting students by phone and email daily.  My work load is pretty similar to what it was before.  My concern is 2 fold.... this sucks and I do NOT want to have wasted all this time and have to start all over in 2 months...and if the economy is going to suffer anyways we might as well save lives.  

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Even if yesterdays spike was partially due to the observed "Tuesday bump" each week...it is apparent we have not made much progress down the curve yet.  We may be slightly past the peak but still very early in the decline and that decline is likely to be slow not sharp.  That said (and I do not want to get into a political argument with anyone, I have mostly been avoiding that but this is my personal take and yes its biased because EVERYONE is biased by their own experiences in life) I find it ridiculous that we are suddenly talking about a quick opening and relaxation of our societal covid preventative measures when we are just now very close to or only slightly past the peak of the pandemic.   IMO the discussion is being driven by some people's impatience and frustration and economic concerns.  I have not heard one shred of evidence from a virologist that inclines me to think opening everything back up soon is a good idea medically.  And I am suspect that an early opening which could lead to another spike in cases would have any economic benefit.  We are over a month into this now...and we are going to just throw all that way and go in a different direction?  Then we might end up back at square one and have wasted all this time and be starting all over again.  Plus if a significant number are sick the economy won't be "fine" no matter what the policy is.  This just seems crazy to me.  And I am NOT coming at this from a place of not wanting to work.  I am working.  All my classes are online.  I have collaborate sessions with my students everyday, I am posting and grading work daily.  I am contacting students by phone and email daily.  My work load is pretty similar to what it was before.  My concern is 2 fold.... this sucks and I do NOT want to have wasted all this time and have to start all over in 2 months...and if the economy is going to suffer anyways we might as well save lives.  

 

For MD, the two early indicators that we're peaking or coming off the peak are the "Hospitalizations" and "Released from Isolation".  In those two boxes you will see a "Last 24 hours".  Until the "Release from Isolation, Last 24 hours" numbers match or exceed the "Hospitalizations, Last 24 Hours" for 3 days, we aren't coming down.

[mappy]

anyone have questions for MD DoIT? on a call this morning with the mid-atlantic GIS users group, and the leader MD DoIT gal is giving a presentation about the covid-site

 

note: this is regarding the maryland covid-dashboard

[40westwx]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There is such a backlog of tests nationally, and under-testing that we're missing a fair number of symptomatic cases and probably missing fatalities. 

I just figured it out.. CDC guidelines are instructing doctors to use COVID-19 as the presumptive cause of death when no positive analysis is available/ no test is performed, if you have reason to believe COVID was the cause of death.  That is really interesting because this time of year, you typically get between 4000 - 7000 pneumonia/ flu deaths per week.  If we are using COVID-19 as presumptive cause of death.. then how do we differentiate the normal deaths and the COVID deaths.. seems to me that this is a really large discrepancy in the numbers..

I guess this would be okay.. accept for the fact that people are making policy decisions on the mortality rate.    

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

anyone have questions for MD DoIT? on a call this morning with the mid-atlantic GIS users group, and the leader MD DoIT gal is giving a presentation about the covid-site

 

note: this is regarding the maryland covid-dashboard

Is there a way the data can be published as a service for other programs to ingest it?

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Is there a way the data can be published as a service for other programs to ingest it?

i will ask!

[psuhoffman]

One last thing... wrt to the "phased" opening of the economy.  All I have heard lately are the same very shallow hollow talking points from every interview on this.  There are some VERY important details that no one is even mentioning.  So....if we return the less vulnerable to work and order the people at higher risk to stay in quarantine.... possibly for a year or more, how does that even work.  First of all do people realize how many that is.  High risk isnt just people over 60 its also anyone with diabetes, asthma and other lung diseases, heart conditions, cancer, anyone who had chemo, various immune system deficiencies, anyone who smokes....we are talking about a LOT of people.  How do businesses function missing that many people?  Some key contributors will be gone.  And most importantly...what about those groups?  That is tens of millions of people.  Who pays their bills?  Do businesses have to retain them and pay their salaries even when they aren't working for a year?  If not...what happens when they run out of money?  Do we give them all unemployment?  What about the people who live in a high cost of living area and unemployment won't cover their cost of living?  They have to then "move" during a pandemic and suffer that loss because they are forced to isolate for a year?  And even if we take the "conservative" approach of "well that is their problem" no it isnt..because if that 30% of the economy suddenly is destitute you really think that wont trigger a depression?  Then what was the point of opening back up anyways?  And if you force that group to choose between their health or losing their homes many will take the chance and go to work and get sick...and then we crash the medical system and we end up with the result the "plan" is trying to avoid and we might as well have just done nothing. 

Maybe there is some brilliant plan that no one is talking about to deal with all the issues that kind of policy would entail...but forgive me for being skeptical on that.  Yea a scalpel type policy towards this would be better...in a vacuum...but we suck at that kind of societal level details collective actions.  We would likely not even be able to agree on what kind of assistance the high risk in isolation should get.  I don't have the answers either...just pointing out the "plan" I keep hearing about is more of a vague un-fleshed out idea than a plan.  

[mappy]

@Eskimo Joe questions at end, so ill keep a list. let me know if anyone else has any other questions

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I just figured it out.. CDC guidelines are instructing doctors to use COVID-19 as the presumptive cause of death when no positive analysis is available/ no test is performed, if you have reason to believe COVID was the cause of death.  That is really interesting because this time of year, you typically get between 4000 - 7000 pneumonia/ flu deaths per week.  If we are using COVID-19 as presumptive cause of death.. then how do we differentiate the normal deaths and the COVID deaths.. seems to me that this is a really large discrepancy in the numbers..

I guess this would be okay.. accept for the fact that people are making policy decisions on the mortality rate.    

So are you talking about the probable covid deaths?  The numbers everyone’s been going by so far (Until nyc released probable deaths yesterday) have been fatalities with positive tests.  I know nyc did an analysis of their average death rate over past years and compared it to this year, so the past years should account for the flu deaths.  

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

anyone have questions for MD DoIT? on a call this morning with the mid-atlantic GIS users group, and the leader MD DoIT gal is giving a presentation about the covid-site

 

note: this is regarding the maryland covid-dashboard

Thanks for your efforts

[Chris78]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Even if yesterdays spike was partially due to the observed "Tuesday bump" each week...it is apparent we have not made much progress down the curve yet.  We may be slightly past the peak but still very early in the decline and that decline is likely to be slow not sharp.  That said (and I do not want to get into a political argument with anyone, I have mostly been avoiding that but this is my personal take and yes its biased because EVERYONE is biased by their own experiences in life) I find it ridiculous that we are suddenly talking about a quick opening and relaxation of our societal covid preventative measures when we are just now very close to or only slightly past the peak of the pandemic.   IMO the discussion is being driven by some people's impatience and frustration and economic concerns.  I have not heard one shred of evidence from a virologist that inclines me to think opening everything back up soon is a good idea medically.  And I am suspect that an early opening which could lead to another spike in cases would have any economic benefit.  We are over a month into this now...and we are going to just throw all that way and go in a different direction?  Then we might end up back at square one and have wasted all this time and be starting all over again.  Plus if a significant number are sick the economy won't be "fine" no matter what the policy is.  This just seems crazy to me.  And I am NOT coming at this from a place of not wanting to work.  I am working.  All my classes are online.  I have collaborate sessions with my students everyday, I am posting and grading work daily.  I am contacting students by phone and email daily.  My work load is pretty similar to what it was before.  My concern is 2 fold.... this sucks and I do NOT want to have wasted all this time and have to start all over in 2 months...and if the economy is going to suffer anyways we might as well save lives.  

 

I agree 100%. The curve will be a gradual trend down and not a drop off of a cliff lol. Its going to take time and patience. It appears that the current guidlines are working. The US needs to see it through and not rush things. IMO June 1st is a much more reasonable time frame to start opening things back up but we need to be flexible and adjust as time goes on. 

[mappy]

@Eskimo Joe Department of IT is working on making the data available for the general public, however the feature layer services can be downloaded through AGOL, for those who are famliar with it. I'll post the links when I get them after the call. 

Goal is to have ALL the data available through download within MDs open data portal (MD iMap) and not directly through ArcGIS Online.

the presenter did mention something about Ospry? or EOC? not sure what those are, but sounded like emergency management related

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, mappy said:

@Eskimo Joe Department of IT is working on making the data available for the general public, however the feature layer services can be downloaded through AGOL, for those who are famliar with it. I'll post the links when I get them after the call. 

Goal is to have ALL the data available through download within MDs open data portal (MD iMap) and not directly through ArcGIS Online.

the presenter did mention something about Osbry? or EOC? not sure what those are, but sounded like emergency management related

OSPREY EOC...internal through the state but it's hard to share into local gov products. Having the AGOL feed is more ubiquitous.  Thanks.

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

OSPREY EOC...internal through the state but it's hard to share into local gov products. Having the AGOL feed is more ubiquitous.  Thanks.

i didn't quite catch what she said regarding it, but it sounded as if the data would be there too

i took screenshots of the links for the two map services available

[mappy]

Here they are

https://services.arcgis.com/njFNhDsUCentVYJW/arcgis/rest/services/ZIPCodes_MD_1/FeatureServer

https://services.arcgis.com/njFNhDsUCentVYJW/arcgis/rest/services/MD_COVID19_Case_Counts_by_County/FeatureServer

these are feature services layers that one can pull into AGOL or download for use.

[mappy]

something else to note: probable COVID deaths are NOT part of the official count on the dashboard. Those numbers can be found on the page, further down in the black box section. 

[Maestrobjwa]

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

I would take yesterday's numbers with a grain of salt wrt to declaring it a "SIGNIFICANT" jump up because for several weeks there has been a repetative pattern of lower reported deaths over the weekend and then a significant spike on Tuesday.  The only logical explanation is that changes in how they are reported and issues with contacting family before they are made public wrt the weekends causes a backlog that then hits the reports as "new deaths" on Tuesdays.  That makes more sense that the virus cares what day of the week it is and suddenly becomes more lethal every Tuesday.  We will have to see what the numbers look like today before drawing any larger conclusions about the trend.  

That said the numbers do suggest (even taking into account the Tuesday bump effect) that while we may have flattened the curve that flattening happened at a fairly high level and we have not yet seen a significant move down the backside of the curve.  

Yeah I was thinking about that...numbers do seem lower over the weekends.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I was thinking about that...numbers do seem lower over the weekends.

Some private labs slow or stop processing tests on the weekend.

[mappy]

Hogan presser at 230. Last I heard regarding schools they were still discussing and no announcement was expected this week. 

 

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some private labs slow or stop processing tests on the weekend.

That's what I figured...numbers seemed lower over the past weekends.

Kinda off topic but for those waiting for the stimulus mine was deposited into my account overnight. I live in SE PA, filed 2019 taxes in January and they had my direct deposit info for years if that makes a difference? I feel bad for people w/children who were living paycheck to paycheck and w/o direct deposit. The physical stimulus check will probably take weeks (months) to reach them.

[ErinInTheSky]

Surprise surprise, people don’t want to die or kill the vulnerable around them.

This is the main reason you can't just "restart" or "open" the economy. People's behaviour is changed and they won't return to normal unless they believe they are safe. People stopped going to restaurants before restaurants were officially closed by governments. People won't travel. They'll only reluctantly go to work if their office is open, but good luck generating business if no one is going out.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

That's what I figured...numbers seemed lower over the past weekends.

Kinda off topic but for those waiting for the stimulus mine was deposited into my account overnight. I live in SE PA, filed 2019 taxes in January and they had my direct deposit info for years if that makes a difference? I feel bad for people w/children who were living paycheck to paycheck and w/o direct deposit. The physical stimulus check will probably take weeks (months) to reach them.

it was my understanding checks were being deposited based on income levels? waterboy got his today too, but neither me or my husband got ours.

[ErinInTheSky]

I have no idea how my check is going to go. My name changed and so lol. Who knows. I also don’t have my direct deposit on file, I pay by check.

[mappy]

Any Baltimore County parents, Balt public schools now have learning ON TV, channel 73 comcast, or channel 34 vios

schedule in the article

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/baltimore-county-public-schools-to-begin-teacher-produced-tv-learning-schedule/32158123