• Member Statistics

    15,882
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LanaM
    Newest Member
    LanaM
    Joined
mappy

COVID-19 Talk

Recommended Posts

Another 2k+ deaths today, just extrapolating what the back side of the US curve might look like based on Italy, I can’t see how we’d end up averaging less than 1k per day for a good part or all of May.  Good chance we’ll be 80-90k by the end of May.  Really terrible but i don’t see how we just drop down super fast. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Another 2k+ deaths today, just extrapolating what the back side of the US curve might look like based on Italy, I can’t see how we’d end up averaging less than 1k per day for a good part or all of May.  Good chance we’ll be 80-90k by the end of May.  Really terrible but i don’t see how we just drop down super fast. 

That's with current measures being maintained too.

States reopening make me think that 100-200k death is still well within likelihood. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Another 2k+ deaths today, just extrapolating what the back side of the US curve might look like based on Italy, I can’t see how we’d end up averaging less than 1k per day for a good part or all of May.  Good chance we’ll be 80-90k by the end of May.  Really terrible but i don’t see how we just drop down super fast. 

 

The most alarming part to me is that in a flu season we can see 30-60k related deaths. But with covid19 we are already at that upper level range in less than 6 weeks essentially. Sorry if my numbers are slightly.off, going by memory irt influenza seasonal mortality.

Eta: and in actuality, most of the deaths from covid19 in the USA have occurred just in the past 4 week period. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

E6A9A956-25B0-441D-A2B8-AFB213628E76.jpeg.828180f8e8959b06032819697ce33dd8.jpeg

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 4
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The most alarming part to me is that in a flu season we can see 30-60k related deaths. But with covid19 we are already at that upper level range in less than 6 weeks essentially. Sorry if my numbers are slightly.off, going by memory irt influenza seasonal mortality.

Next fall if covid is back simultaneously with a flu season that will be very bad.  This year it coincided with the tail end of flu season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

That’s a lot of words used to not say anything of value.  Do you have any ideas you’d like to contribute?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread is good example of the effects this crap has on people. You got the same folks that come through every morning and get so excited to post new #s and slice and dice data to meet their agenda and cause fear. They are so consumed by the day to day #s that they can no longer step back and look at bigger picture. They get so worked up and pretend like they have it all figured out, while shaming others that don’t buy into the bs. In the end they are just pushing an agenda that they are to too stupid to even realize even doing

The F!$!?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

That’s a lot of words to not saying anything of value.  Do you have any ideas you’d like to contribute?

I think at end of day there is no integrity in the data, but yet y’all sit here and freak out all day everyday. It’s clearly become a personal choice if someone wants to buy into the fear or take the risk that perhaps things may not be as portrayed. Just think at this point there’s not much integrity in any data from any country from any study, so nobody should pretend they have it all figured out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Rvarookie said:

I think at end of day there is no integrity in the data, but yet y’all sit here and freak out all day everyday. It’s clearly become a personal choice if someone wants to buy into the fear or take the risk that perhaps things may not be as portrayed. Just think at this point there’s not much integrity in any data from any country from any study, so nobody should pretend they have it all figured out

No integrity in what data specifically?  Also, if you’re so above “freaking out” and if the data that we discuss is in your mind no good then why are you in this thread at all?

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread may be good example why some of y’all can’t ever predict a snow storm. Too busy consumed on models and what everyone else says to have the balls to form your own opinions. 

I do appreciate the data you have all shared daily tho and I hope y’all stay healthy during  these tough times. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

E6A9A956-25B0-441D-A2B8-AFB213628E76.jpeg.828180f8e8959b06032819697ce33dd8.jpeg

Yeh that was pretty long winded. No lie, while I was writing it, I was like man I sound like that psu bum that writes essays on forum everyday instead of teaching his students. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

This thread may be good example why some of y’all can’t ever predict a snow storm. Too busy consumed on models and what everyone else says to have the balls to form your own opinions. 

I do appreciate the data you have all shared daily tho and I hope y’all stay healthy during  these tough times. 

Hahaha I do like your trolling style better than some of the others that have passed through this thread tbh.  At least you don’t pretend to try to understand what’s actually happening out there in the world. It’s a little less abrasive, keep it up. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Hahaha I do like your trolling style better than some of the others that have passed through this thread tbh.  At least you don’t pretend to try to understand what’s actually happening out there in the world. It’s a little less abrasive, keep it up. 

Thanks! Def not trolling. Just coming from a place where you can’t trust much of anything so I’d  prefer to take the risks, yet also trying to be sensitive to others that may not feel that same way. At least we should all agree the denominator has always been off...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Thanks! Def not trolling. Just coming from a place where you can’t trust much of anything so I’d  prefer to take the risks, yet also trying to be sensitive to others that may not feel that same way. At least we should all agree the denominator has always been off...

The thing about infectious disease though is that it’s not just you.  You being out in the world increases the risk that others will get it.  Secondly, if you mean the total number of infections is greater than the known number of cases, of course.  That is true for every disease in the history of mankind that there is a test for. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

I think at end of day there is no integrity in the data, but yet y’all sit here and freak out all day everyday. It’s clearly become a personal choice if someone wants to buy into the fear or take the risk that perhaps things may not be as portrayed. Just think at this point there’s not much integrity in any data from any country from any study, so nobody should pretend they have it all figured out

So if every study and all data is useless what are you using to form your opinion?  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Yeh that was pretty long winded. No lie, while I was writing it, I was like man I sound like that psu bum that writes essays on forum everyday instead of teaching his students. 

So you went with “I know you are but what am I”... 

BFA4A921-32BD-4295-8AF7-A1A8A72072DE.jpeg.4db2c78488f4a9900a51eec80e991f82.jpeg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


I’d really like to know how much of a risk this is. If groups stay 6 feet apart it seems just based on common sense that it wouldn’t be able to spread like in a confined space.  I know there isn’t a lot of conclusive data on this yet....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:


I’d really like to know how much of a risk this is. If groups stay 6 feet apart it seems just based on common sense that it wouldn’t be able to spread like in a confined space.  I know there isn’t a lot of conclusive data on this yet....

THAT picture is clearly a risk...

 

Remember one of the biggest clusters came from spring break travelers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:


I’d really like to know how much of a risk this is. If groups stay 6 feet apart it seems just based on common sense that it wouldn’t be able to spread like in a confined space.  I know there isn’t a lot of conclusive data on this yet....

It probably looks worse than it actually is.  If people keep their distance from one another the risk of transmission is fairly low.  The other issue, however, is that all those people are touching more gas pumps, parking meters, etc.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, supernovasky said:

THAT picture is clearly a risk...

 

Remember one of the biggest clusters came from spring break travelers.

Yes but doesn’t mean they gave it to each other on the beach.  The bigger issue is sharing hotel rooms, bars, restaurants, etc.   I assume these are mostly residents hanging out on the beach with their families.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, supernovasky said:

THAT picture is clearly a risk...

 

Remember one of the biggest clusters came from spring break travelers.

I think the spring break thing probably had to do more with the incredible amounts of drinking/hooking up that occurs at spring break.  I don’t think the act of sitting on the beach would be THAT risky. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jaydreb said:

It probably looks worse than it actually is.  If people keep their distance from one another the risk of transmission is fairly low.  The other issue, however, is that all those people are touching more gas pumps, parking meters, etc.  

That's the bigger problem. A lot of people don't realize... all these people have to use the bathroom somewhere. Water fountains, passing by each other without 6 feet of distance on piers, not wearing masks, going to the same stores beforehand nearby to purchase supplies, kids playing with other kids, picking things up that strangers drop.

 

And let's not forget just the simple act of gathering people who haven't hung out to "go hang out for a beach day", so even a lot of these individual groups may be people from different households congregating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So if every study and all data is useless what are you using to form your opinion?  

I don’t think the data shared in this thread/news is useless, but I also don’t think it’s been fair sided discussion. The folks that don’t agree with wearing some stupid ass mask seem to be silenced and shamed, but that’s life these days. Nobody can talk it through/listen to others views.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Rvarookie said:

I don’t think the data shared in this thread/news is useless, but I also don’t think it’s been fair sided discussion. The folks that don’t agree with wearing some stupid ass mask seem to be silenced and shamed, but that’s life these days. Nobody can talk it through/listen to others views.

 

The data on masks is pretty clear, they reduce the risk of transmission if you’re in a place close to other people.  Don’t think that’s very controversial. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the most important thing to realize is... the disease spreads through the gathering of people. The more you can reduce the gathering of people, the more you'll reduce the spread. Pictures like that show exactly how new infections can still take place right now, and it wouldn't surprise me to discover that people that are going to the beaches are going to come down with it 1-2 weeks from now.

Not worth the risk IMO. I saw a hiking trail packed with people today, it would have been impossible to social distance. People breathing all over as they pass you by without masks. 

 

I turned around and went to a lighter populated trail.

This level of congregation is irresponsible IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.