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COVID-19 Talk

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fzb5o3E.jpg
 

We are easily going to have the worst response to this pandemic of any country. We are still in the exponential growth phase too. 

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8 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

fzb5o3E.jpg
 

We are easily going to have the worst response to this pandemic of any country. We are still in the exponential growth phase too. 

Yeah , it is really sad.  Didn’t have to be this way.  Poor planning and downplaying of the threat, put us behind the 8 ball.  After all if you knew a cat 5 was offshore heading you ur way , you wouldn’t wait till it was making landfall to prepare. Would you ?   Just hard to believe we r in this bad of a situation.    

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9 hours ago, gunny23 said:

Our final payment is due in a couple of weeks.  I'm hoping they let us postpone to next April.  Based on the trajectory of Covid 19 there is no way we would feel safe travelling through Quayaquil for some time.  Especially since it is a humanitarian crises there on top of the virus.  Really sad what is happening.... 

Who are you cruising with?  We are w Huagan on the Camila.  

Sorry if this is banter...

We use Tauck for all of our vacations. Sailing on the Isabela II. Going with 5 or 6 couples we met on prior Tauck vacations. Just checked airfaires hoping for deals for FirstClass/Business class. WE have Iceland in July which may be the safest country in the world due to their extensive testing.

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I’m not saying we have handled this situation well at all. But if you really think those numbers for China are accurate you all are crazy. There is no doubt that there cases and deaths as of now are much higher then ours. 

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Park getting pretty busy on this nice Sunday. Mostly people just playing with their kids and runners but monitoring. My new job tittle is “social ambassador”. So that if people try to gather I can inform them of the social distancing guidelines. I’d prefer skull cracker myself. 

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Park getting pretty busy on this nice Sunday. Mostly people just playing with their kids and runners but monitoring. My new job tittle is “social ambassador”. So that if people try to gather I can inform them of the social distancing guidelines. I’d prefer skull cracker myself. 

Social Ambassador...sounds important 

More importantly...How's the Women's yoga club looking :whistle:

 

 

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Social Ambassador...sounds important 

More importantly...How's the Women's yoga club looking :whistle:

 

 

Mostly families here today but yesterday not bad lol, drove the ATV for a closer look to make sure it wasn’t 10 ppl;)

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This is the model that the government is using.  It doesn't think herd immunity is going to do much to dampen a second wave.  This supports what I've been saying:  Better preparedness will help us contain and mitigate a second wave, not natural immunity.

By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs?fbclid=IwAR2hG2_tdcNqbDzUvIVtnB3VqkxQ7qTQJYBMcrg-0J9PH0kBP5PqtsdTVTg

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17 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

This is the model that the government is using.  It doesn't think herd immunity is going to do much to dampen a second wave.  This supports what I've been saying:  Better preparedness will help us contain and mitigate a second wave, not natural immunity.

By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some of the social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs?fbclid=IwAR2hG2_tdcNqbDzUvIVtnB3VqkxQ7qTQJYBMcrg-0J9PH0kBP5PqtsdTVTg

Yes, Dr. Fauci has been saying this at pretty much every briefing this week (except for the one he missed).   

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Surgeon General thinks next week will be the worst week . Very gruesome they are saying.

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20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

One of my extended family members is recovering and was released from the hospital!

Well praise God for that! Happy to hear! (Was just about to ask you how the other two were doing!)

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And I'm laughing at "Aerosolized feces" Hahaha That's a new one...

 

1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-19-transmitted-via-aerosolized-feces-study-warns

suggesting to flush with toilet lid down. 
 

However, my girlfriend has me in the habit of flushing in soon as it plops cuz I’m so “rank” so we good. 

Besides Political we now have to abide by Scatological Correctness. Be wary when on the go, As always.....

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Had to go to Lowe’s. They were only letting limited people in and had to wait. Good policy cause people are still out and about. Planting flowers. Lol

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And I'm laughing at "Aerosolized feces" Hahaha That's a new one...

Kinda brings a new meaning when people say, "shit's really flying!", doesn't it?? :lol:

(or, "that shit won't fly!" or "hitting the fan" or... Well you get the idea!) ;)

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Surgeon General thinks next week will be the worst week . Very gruesome they are saying.

In general yeah. Esp for NY, which is the biggest hot spot. That is what the modeling has been depicting. Other places, the peak(daily deaths) will be later, but not as extreme.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/coronavirus-peak-dc-maryland-virginia/2020/04/03/0636bc6c-75cf-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

Quote

D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser announced Friday that the city projects that 1 in 7 residents of the city will contract the novel coronavirus, with the nation’s capital seeing a peak in hospitalized patients around late June and early July.

The D.C. government thinks the IHME model overestimates the impact of social distancing on reducing new infections.

According to city officials, the CHIME model takes into account social distancing measures from the closure of nonessential businesses and schools and the ban on mass gatherings — but it also calculates that many people will not comply.

 

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/wharf-fish-market-packed-on-a-saturday-social-distancing-not-being-practiced/65-334f226a-e56a-45d9-82f3-e6ad129a60fe

Yup.

Dumb asses.

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26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I looked over IHME model projected 3% infection rate nation wide and seriously went HUH??? I know the impacts of social distancing are somewhat of an unknown but I really question that number. As is, the 1 out of 7 figure for DC is more in my line of thinking for what we will see in the major cities though I believe even that is low balling it. 

 

 

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Seems that a tiger in the Bronx Zoo has contracted the virus. 2 other tigers and 2 other lions have developed a dry cough a symptom of the virus.

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Seems that a tiger in the Bronx Zoo has contracted the virus. 2 other tigers and 2 other lions have developed a dry cough a symptom of the virus.

Yeah I just saw this. Interesting.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I just saw this. Interesting.

There were reports of dogs contracting this as well. I know back and forth is possible but is it normal to see a virus be able to jump from 4 different species (bat, dog, lions, humans)?

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

There were reports of dogs contracting this as well. I know back and forth is possible but is it normal to see a virus be able to jump from 4 different species (bat, dog, lions, humans)?

Seems bizarre to me. Above my pay grade though.

I took biology and zoology in college, and found it very interesting in a fundamental context. Maybe if I had stayed at a Holiday Inn Express..

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Seems bizarre to me. Above my pay grade though.

I took biology and zoology in college, and found it very interesting in a fundamental context. Maybe if I had stayed at a Holiday Inn Express..

I have stayed at a Holiday Inn but I've got nothing. 

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Coronaviruses are endemic is most mammals. No surprise it can survive in dogs and lions but not really cause a major infection, per se. Many viruses can live in other hosts and not be infectious. That's how the whole wet market virus spreading thing even happens. A bat-based coronavirus spread to another host, possibly a pangolin, and then to humans. It was seriously infectious in humans.

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Have the stat heads here been looking at some of the research coming out now that says the infected count is far higher than we have estimated and therefore the infected fatality ratio (IFR) is much lower? Don't listen to the case fatality ratio numbers on TV, they are all bogus. Self-selection bias is rampant because only the sickest people go to the hospital and get tested. The hospitalization rate numbers are also bogus because of this: of the sickest patients showing up in the ER, only about ~10% are admitted. That doesn't mean 10% of everyone who gets the virus will need a hospital bed... it appears 50% or more may have no symptoms at all.

In a few years when COVID-19 is a seasonal disease like the flu or cold we will wonder why we crashed the world economy over it.

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8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Coronaviruses are endemic is most mammals. No surprise it can survive in dogs and lions but not really cause a major infection, per se. Many viruses can live in other hosts and not be infectious. That's how the whole wet market virus spreading thing even happens. A bat-based coronavirus spread to another host, possibly a pangolin, and then to humans. It was seriously infectious in humans.

But is it typical/normal for one specific Corona Virus to be able to infect over multiple species that we are seeing here? 

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