• Member Statistics

    16,619
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    City Central
    Newest Member
    City Central
    Joined
Chicago Storm

Coronavirus

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Serious question here. What the hell is going on in Michigan? How is it spiking so bad but only within its borders?

Probably a combination of more variant spread, pandemic fatigue, loosening restrictions and being a northern state without consistent summer type weather yet.  It's almost like they are their own country with the amount of spread happening there.  I wouldn't think their daily case average could go that much higher than it is currently, but then again, I wouldn't have thought it would get to this level (they are not all that far below their fall/winter peak in cases) so I have some humility when making that statement.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Probably a combination of more variant spread, pandemic fatigue, loosening restrictions and being a northern state without consistent summer type weather yet.  It's almost like they are their own country with the amount of spread happening there.  I wouldn't think their daily case average could go that much higher than it is currently, but then again, I wouldn't have thought it would get to this level (they are not all that far below their fall/winter peak in cases) so I have some humility when making that statement.

It is pretty clear at this point they are not going to attempt pullback of their opening. They are basically going to rely on the combination of increased vaccine uptake plus spring weather as their mitigation. Crossing fingers that this peaks soon there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

It is pretty clear at this point they are not going to attempt pullback of their opening. They are basically going to rely on the combination of increased vaccine uptake plus spring weather as their mitigation. Crossing fingers that this peaks soon there.

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Probably a combination of more variant spread, pandemic fatigue, loosening restrictions and being a northern state without consistent summer type weather yet.  It's almost like they are their own country with the amount of spread happening there.  I wouldn't think their daily case average could go that much higher than it is currently, but then again, I wouldn't have thought it would get to this level (they are not all that far below their fall/winter peak in cases) so I have some humility when making that statement.

14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

32 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

It is pretty clear at this point they are not going to attempt pullback of their opening. They are basically going to rely on the combination of increased vaccine uptake plus spring weather as their mitigation. Crossing fingers that this peaks soon there.

47 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Serious question here. What the hell is going on in Michigan? How is it spiking so bad but only within its borders?

This really puts it in perspective how bad Michigan is doing. Really mysterious how Michigan is surging like this.  Were there any big events in the last month?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

But standardized tests and all that nonsense... how could we possibly cancel those?! /s

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Serious question here. What the hell is going on in Michigan? How is it spiking so bad but only within its borders?

Notable outbreaks in corrections facilities amd the state has mandated that all youth sports participants get bi weekly tests. Thats producing a lot of found cases. I suspect these numbers trend down in the next couple of weeks. One thing is for sure, this surge has really jumpstarted the vaccine push by people. Everyone wants the smoothie ASAP. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The P1 variant in Brazil is clearly worrisome, however I think it's a bigger deal for the rest of the world than here. There very likely is a worst case scenario of overcrowding and subsequent care degradation in Brazil resulting in the mortality spike among younger adults. It does appear the variant is more contagious and likely is more deadly due to higher viral load, but there's no way to test how those patients would do with high quality care.

Because of our rapidly expanding vaccination campaign, we should stay out ahead of widespread major issues like during the late fall and winter spike, current spike in Michigan notwithstanding. This consequently will keep hospital occupancy at manageable levels. I do worry though that things could get worse in other countries, including the EU, given their lagging vaccine campaigns. With supply set to no longer be a serious issue in the US, we will have to pivot some of our efforts to helping the global vax campaign.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Stebo said:

A lot of it is because of the schools and in person learning. I would end the year now otherwise it is going to keep going like wildfire.

I just don't get why everyone wants to target the low hanging fruit of schools and in person learning.  I work at a school, with 1850 students K-12 plus staff who have been in school since early August.  We have closed twice for a couple of days each when we lost a small but critical departments (food service/custodial) to quarantines.  We played sports, had plays and band concerts and exhibitions, and a variety of activities.  Our Covid positives stand at 131 for the entire year for students and staff.  We have had no outbreaks and our positivity rate was always much less than local and state rates.  Schools can safely open and should be open.  Period.  We did allow for students to chose in remain home and do distance learning but the number was small to start and dwindled quickly.  We have zero plans to offer this as an option next school year.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the flip side of that coin, a quick Google search turns up the fact that as of January there were 530 US teachers who died as a result of covid (that we know of, so the number is likely higher). And the fact is, given that teachers are usually able to retire before the age of 60, very few of them are in the vulnerable age group. So there’s a delicate balance between death and how much we’re willing to let students “fall behind” their peers in other states and countries that are mostly doing the same thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

I just don't get why everyone wants to target the low hanging fruit of schools and in person learning.  I work at a school, with 1850 students K-12 plus staff who have been in school since early August.  We have closed twice for a couple of days each when we lost a small but critical departments (food service/custodial) to quarantines.  We played sports, had plays and band concerts and exhibitions, and a variety of activities.  Our Covid positives stand at 131 for the entire year for students and staff.  We have had no outbreaks and our positivity rate was always much less than local and state rates.  Schools can safely open and should be open.  Period.  We did allow for students to chose in remain home and do distance learning but the number was small to start and dwindled quickly.  We have zero plans to offer this as an option next school year.  

People keep pushing that narrative despite repeated studies that kids, in general, don't contribute a lot to the spread (unless something new has come out in the last month or two). I am not sure why people want kids to stay home so badly, it is terrible for them and makes people's lives very difficult. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

this is a story of one of my friend's cousin.  He's in his 30s, a physician and otherwise healthy

 

https://health.ucdavis.edu/health-news/newsroom/expertise-and-kindness-defy-odds-in-long-precarious-fight-against-covid-19-/2021/04?fbclid=IwAR06yQ7DXdm05nl7z21tHYBYZvP5w-BIo2zQm9WRtmv5wNOl4zPKzQ1VGhE

 

I still don't get why people mess with facts on how bad this can be and NOT want to take safety precautions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree that schools, especially at the primary and secondary level have not been major sources of spread. IIRC France kept the schools open back last November and cases still fell.

Given the the impacts to child development especially at the younger age groups, plus the parenting hassles, I agree that they should be in person if at all possible.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I agree that schools, especially at the primary and secondary level have not been major sources of spread. IIRC France kept the schools open back last November and cases still fell.

Given the the impacts to child development especially at the younger age groups, plus the parenting hassles, I agree that they should be in person if at all possible.

Couldn't agree more. We're talking about an education here, that's one of the most important things for a young person. In addition, not many have the luxury of working from home daily so what are they to do with childcare? It's a damn tough spot all around the longer this drags on

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Couldn't agree more. We're talking about an education here, that's one of the most important things for a young person. In addition, not many have the luxury of working from home daily so what are they to do with childcare? It's a damn tough spot all around the longer this drags on

The quicker everyone gets their vaccines the quicker we can be done with this. It really is just that simple folks

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

I agree that schools, especially at the primary and secondary level have not been major sources of spread. IIRC France kept the schools open back last November and cases still fell.

Given the the impacts to child development especially at the younger age groups, plus the parenting hassles, I agree that they should be in person if at all possible.

This - 100% especially K-5. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

On the flip side of that coin, a quick Google search turns up the fact that as of January there were 530 US teachers who died as a result of covid (that we know of, so the number is likely higher). And the fact is, given that teachers are usually able to retire before the age of 60, very few of them are in the vulnerable age group. So there’s a delicate balance between death and how much we’re willing to let students “fall behind” their peers in other states and countries that are mostly doing the same thing.

Pretty sure I've seen evidence that teachers are far more likely to get covid outside of schools than in the school...just like kids are catching more covid outside of school than in school. School doesn't have to be perfectly safe to be in favor of mostly open school given the obvious negative effects of long term school closures. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Pretty sure I've seen evidence that teachers are far more likely to get covid outside of schools than in the school...just like kids are catching more covid outside of school than in school. School doesn't have to be perfectly safe to be in favor of mostly open school given the obvious negative effects of long term school closures. 

It would not surprise me at all if that evidence is true, my comment was more devil’s advocate. However, I still think that calculation is a little different for elementary/middle vs. high school. If high schools are still conducted virtually until it is safer (i.e. through the end of the school year, I’m hoping most of the population will be vaccinated before school starts up again), it doesn’t prevent the parents from working outside of the home if their job requires them to do so because a 14 1/2 to 18 year old can be left at home to learn virtually. Maybe even 7th-8th graders, isn’t 12 the age when kids are allowed to be left at home by themselves? This time of the school year, most of the instruction being done in middle and high schools is preparing students for, and taking, standardized tests and state-mandated bull***t anyway. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Pretty sure I've seen evidence that teachers are far more likely to get covid outside of schools than in the school...just like kids are catching more covid outside of school than in school. School doesn't have to be perfectly safe to be in favor of mostly open school given the obvious negative effects of long term school closures. 

Schools should all be open, extracurriculars have been spreaders around here and have been cut down on, or have many rules to stop spreading from getting out of hand.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It would not surprise me at all if that evidence is true, my comment was more devil’s advocate. However, I still think that calculation is a little different for elementary/middle vs. high school. If high schools are still conducted virtually until it is safer (i.e. through the end of the school year, I’m hoping most of the population will be vaccinated before school starts up again), it doesn’t prevent the parents from working outside of the home if their job requires them to do so because a 14 1/2 to 18 year old can be left at home to learn virtually. Maybe even 7th-8th graders, isn’t 12 the age when kids are allowed to be left at home by themselves? This time of the school year, most of the instruction being done in middle and high schools is preparing students for, and taking, standardized tests and state-mandated bull***t anyway. 

What is your justification for high school kids staying home?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

What is your justification for high school kids staying home?

The pros outweigh the cons, at least from now until the end of the school year, when fewer people are vaccinated and as stated above, all that’s going on in high schools is state-mandated bull***t like standardized tests. I have a totally different opinion for the fall when the covid risk is (hopefully) much lower and there’s actual curriculum to be learned and not just end-of-year nonsense.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The pros outweigh the cons, at least from now until the end of the school year, when fewer people are vaccinated and as stated above, all that’s going on in high schools is state-mandated bull***t like standardized tests. I have a totally different opinion for the fall when the covid risk is (hopefully) much lower and there’s actual curriculum to be learned and not just end-of-year nonsense.

Though, admittedly, this is very dependent on location and socioeconomic status and things like that. Leaving a 15 year old at home to go to school while the parents go to work is a completely different ballgame in an low crime, upper middle class suburban neighborhood where everyone has internet access vs. a high-crime, poorer urban area where not everyone has internet access.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Though, admittedly, this is very dependent on location and socioeconomic status and things like that. Leaving a 15 year old at home to go to school while the parents go to work is a completely different ballgame in an low crime, upper middle class suburban neighborhood where everyone has internet access vs. a high-crime, poorer urban area where not everyone has internet access.

Yeah that exactly right. It increases the disparities that already exist. It's also another reason why lockdowns are only quasi-effective in the short term. The government didnt/doesn't help the front line workers enough in impoverished areas all that much and they can't work from home. So you end up shifting the infection burden on an already relatively unhealthy cohort in multigenerational households while middle and upper class mostly white people can work from home and order Uber eats. Then, everyone focuses (including the government to shift blame on to the individual) on maybe the 20% of spread that is actually caused by "bad behavior" all the while ignoring the systemic issues behind the majority of the spread. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah that exactly right. It increases the disparities that already exist. It's also another reason why lockdowns are only quasi-effective in the short term. The government didnt/doesn't help the front line workers enough in impoverished areas all that much and they can't work from home. So you end up shifting the infection burden on an already relatively unhealthy cohort in multigenerational households while middle and upper class mostly white people can work from home and order Uber eats. Then, everyone focuses (including the government to shift blame on to the individual) on maybe the 20% of spread that is actually caused by "bad behavior" all the while ignoring the systemic issues behind the majority of the spread. 

Guilty as charged, unfortunately I’m a middle class white person working from home and ordering Uber eats. Hence the reason I had to remind myself why it won’t really work out to have kids of any age going to school virtually for any real length of time.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TimB84 said:

Guilty as charged, unfortunately I’m a middle class white person working from home and ordering Uber eats. Hence the reason I had to remind myself why it won’t really work out to have kids of any age going to school virtually for any real length of time.

 

8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah that exactly right. It increases the disparities that already exist. It's also another reason why lockdowns are only quasi-effective in the short term. The government didnt/doesn't help the front line workers enough in impoverished areas all that much and they can't work from home. So you end up shifting the infection burden on an already relatively unhealthy cohort in multigenerational households while middle and upper class mostly white people can work from home and order Uber eats. Then, everyone focuses (including the government to shift blame on to the individual) on maybe the 20% of spread that is actually caused by "bad behavior" all the while ignoring the systemic issues behind the majority of the spread. 

This is such a good conversation to be having. There are so many consequences to having kids staying home from school that almost exclusively effect people without enough money to pay for arrangements for their kids. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

 

This is such a good conversation to be having. There are so many consequences to having kids staying home from school that almost exclusively effect people without enough money to pay for arrangements for their kids. 

That’s exactly it. The kids who are suffering from this are not kids like I was, or kids like my hypothetical, not-yet-existent kids will be. Those kids will be fine regardless of how school is conducted. But there are a lot more places where kids will fall through the cracks as a result of this pandemic, and a lot more kids will fall through the cracks than otherwise would have.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...