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Coronavirus

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Deaths are going to drop sharply by the end of the month. The only reason they aren't lower now is because of backlogging(which shows the immense spread last fall/winter).

Not discounting a sharp drop... I just don't think it will be enough to hit the IHME scenario.  We are in a cruel math game where you can take the number of hospitalizations and multiply by a certain percentage (or range of percentage) and come up with approximate deaths per day.  Perhaps the formula won't work as well going forward as the 65+ age cohort may start to account for a lower proportion of the hospitalization numbers compared to the past year (if you assume a higher percentage of that age group will take the vaccine compared to younger people).  My guess is we are looking at 600k by the end of June, but would be happy to be wrong.

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Average daily deaths now below 2k and dropping fast:tomato:

Sad that we're in a situation where 1500+ deaths per day is looked at in a favorable way, but it looks "good" since the peak was so high.  Would almost never see a daily average like that for the flu, except for the once or twice in a lifetime flu pandemics.

Screenshot_20210306-213015.thumb.png.03f45241a14d245054bbd3ceef4f8e0c.png

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It's "is it allergies or covid" season pretty soon.  <_<

Kind of on that subject, I just went through about a 5 day period of pretty bad fatigue and minor sinus issues.  Nothing changed with my sleeping habits or activities -- I do full body weight training 3 days a week and usually some very light dumbbell or band movements on the in between days.  It went away on its own but I don't know what the hell it was.  I was on high alert for any other symptoms especially any change in smell/taste but that remained perfect.  Just the way life is in the covid world.

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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Sad that we're in a situation where 1500+ deaths per day is looked at in a favorable way, but it looks "good" since the peak was so high.  Would almost never see a daily average like that for the flu, except for the once or twice in a lifetime flu pandemics.

Screenshot_20210306-213015.thumb.png.03f45241a14d245054bbd3ceef4f8e0c.png

I hear you. Just cheering the fact that it is dropping fast.

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Today is the last day that the covid tracking project is publishing their data which is unfortunate.  

The CDC is where I'll be looking as the definitive source for data going forward,  there are slight discrepancies between the two datasets for example CDC has current hospitalizations at 33,834 and 7 day average at 40,546 and the covid tracking project at 41,401 currently hospitalized with the 7 day average also substantially higher than the CDC. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

That's good and all but you can thank Trump for the vaccines .

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It seems those numbers are high as well CDC numbers are more accurate as posted above. Hospitalizations are now at 33k

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations

 

There's been discrepancies all throughout between CDC data and other websites.  Even going back a couple months, the CDC had peak hospitalizations at 125k while Covid Tracking had it at 132k.  If somebody can explain the reason for the differences, please do tell.

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36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's good and all but you can thank Trump for the vaccines .

You can thank scientists for that. We can thank Trump for the idiots who don’t wear a mask and won’t get vaccinated. 

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19 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I tend to follow the covid tracking project. The cdc was corrupted last year imo

Well they are no longer updating data. So CDC is only metric to go by now?

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It seems those numbers are high as well CDC numbers are more accurate as posted above. Hospitalizations are now at 33k

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#hospitalizations

 

They do indicate that the most recent 5 days are subject to errors and adjustments so I'm not sure the 33k will stay low.  I'm not used to seeing how the CDC data changes day by day.

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9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's good and all but you can thank Trump for the vaccines .

If you watch the video, he does give kudos to the Trump administration in assisting the pharmaceutical industry for getting the vaccine developed quickly, but he also pointed out that he then threw the ball into the states' court and the White House offered minimal help in distribution. It doesn't do any good to quickly develop a vaccine if you don't have a plan to get it into people's arms.

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There are lots of reasons to be hopeful, but it’s somewhat surprising how little chatter there is in here about the B117 (UK) variant, which is estimated to be 60% more infectious and has a 64% higher likelihood of causing hospitalization. Once the variant reaches 50% of new cases, we are expected to see a rise in cases and hospitalizations again. 
 

Moreover, kids are catching it at a higher rate and are just as likely to spread it to others. The strain in Brazil sounds as bad or worse, and they are heading into the lower UV season now. 

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

There are lots of reasons to be hopeful, but it’s somewhat surprising how little chatter there is in here about the B117 (UK) variant, which is estimated to be 60% more infectious and has a 64% higher likelihood of causing hospitalization. Once the variant reaches 50% of new cases, we are expected to see a rise in cases and hospitalizations again. 
 

Moreover, kids are catching it at a higher rate and are just as likely to spread it to others. The strain in Brazil sounds as bad or worse, and they are heading into the lower UV season now. 

The vaccines provide protection against the variants to a degree and decrease hospitalization immensely. Pfizer and Moderna are already in the process of developing boosters for the variants. Viruses often mutate to weaker forms to spread quicker and then die out. Covid will never just disappear. It's likely with us for the rest of our lives. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/how-the-different-covid-vaccines-will-handle-variants.html

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3 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

There are lots of reasons to be hopeful, but it’s somewhat surprising how little chatter there is in here about the B117 (UK) variant, which is estimated to be 60% more infectious and has a 64% higher likelihood of causing hospitalization. Once the variant reaches 50% of new cases, we are expected to see a rise in cases and hospitalizations again. 
 

Moreover, kids are catching it at a higher rate and are just as likely to spread it to others. The strain in Brazil sounds as bad or worse, and they are heading into the lower UV season now. 

I think it's just wait and see mode.  Definitely possible there could soon be a period of time when the variant spread outpaces our ability to vaccinate and results in rising case numbers and perhaps hospitalizations, but until then, the downward trends are nice to see.

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My parents (Dad turns 72 this month, Mom turns 70 next month) got their first doses (Pfizer) on Friday. :D

Still worried about my fiancee's dad, though. He's also over 70 with multiple health conditions, lives in the every-mask-for-himself state of Texas (and just had to stay at a friend's house after losing power during the recent winter weather and its repercussions). He also does not have Internet to navigate the sign-up portal; nor is he the type to willingly seek it out. Hope he is around to come to our wedding, whenever that may be. Originally planned for last November, postponed a year for everyone's safety and so that we could do it the way we originally envisioned it; now even that is up in the air due to my fiancee's own lingering health issues caused by our having COVID-19 last August.

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45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The last sentence in that paragraph is a potential problem, imo.  Would like to see some clarification on that.  If you happen to have a vaccinated person with mild covid (since the vaccines aren't 100% effective in preventing mild illness) who is visiting with a more vulnerable, unvaccinated person, that person could be in trouble.

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16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The last sentence in that paragraph is a potential problem, imo.  Would like to see some clarification on that.  If you happen to have a vaccinated person with mild covid (since the vaccines aren't 100% effective in preventing mild illness) who is visiting with a more vulnerable, unvaccinated person, that person could be in trouble.

If you have covid you probably shouldn't be visiting people. 

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15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's good and all but you can thank Trump for the vaccines .

Shh orange man bad in this thread...:ph34r:

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8 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

If you have covid you probably shouldn't be visiting people. 

Obviously.  But there's the incubation period where you don't know you have it.  Or if you have very mild symptoms you may think it isn't covid, especially if you've been vaccinated.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Obviously.  But there's the incubation period where you don't know you have it.  Or if you have very mild symptoms you may think it isn't covid, especially if you've been vaccinated.

We need to get to the point where this is no longer a pandemic. We can't eliminate all risk. I'm a quite certain theres going to be some covid deaths every winter for years to come. 

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