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19 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

You're right, the market isn't the economic health of the average American.  It was never meant to be. 

 

And Fox news?   That's your source for economic data?

 

Would it be really surprising to have a recession given the change in people's buying behaviors, government restrictions and the lack of stimulus? 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

There was no stopping this thing, gyms reopening here and restaurants! 

618DF113-C7DB-48D0-A6E0-F36EF2EA710B.jpeg

Its interesting data for sure. I'm guessing that all the restrictions in NY at the restaurants and gyms make them relatively safe (they wouldn't be under normal circumstances) whereas you cant do the same deal in the home. 

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Its interesting data for sure. I'm guessing that all the restrictions in NY at the restaurants and gyms make them relatively safe (they wouldn't be under normal circumstances) whereas you cant do the same deal in the home. 

I realize there could be local differences, but in general, what is the percentage allowed in restaurants/bars in NY?

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8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Richard can comment more on that but i thought it was 25%? 

It depended on what zone you are in. Most of Erie county is in Orange, the outskirts are in yellow. We were in yellow all summer/fall and went to orange 2 weeks ago. According to this the only limitation was 4 people at a table, that's what this data would be based on. 

COVID microclusters in NY: What the red, orange and yellow zones mean

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2 hours ago, dan11295 said:

Would not be surprised to see today come in below last Friday case numbers wise. Last Friday was so high partly from clearing Thanksgiving week backlog. Plus cases from Thanksgiving gathering transmission should be mostly reported out already. Nationally we are very close to peak IMHO.

Not that you're suggesting such, but peaking does not necessarily mean a quick fall is on the way.  I fear we could be in ~200k+ case plateau hell for a while, especially at this time of year with seasonality factors working against us.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not that you're suggesting such, but peaking does not necessarily mean a quick fall is on the way.  I fear we could be in ~200k+ case plateau hell for a while, especially at this time of year with seasonality factors working against us.

I'll be more confident that we hit peak when  the positive rate starts to drop. As far as I've seen nationally speaking, it's still slowing going up. 

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52 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not that you're suggesting such, but peaking does not necessarily mean a quick fall is on the way.  I fear we could be in ~200k+ case plateau hell for a while, especially at this time of year with seasonality factors working against us.

I agree and plateauing at this level is just awful. People have become a bit numb it at this point and have kind of adapted to this "normalcy" in some ways.

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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Would it be really surprising to have a recession given the change in people's buying behaviors, government restrictions and the lack of stimulus? 

No, but it's unlikely.  This economy is not the same economy that it was earlier in the year.  The stock market reflects what is going on in big business and for what it's worth, the top big business are making money in this economy and will continue to do so.  

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1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said:

No, but it's unlikely.  This economy is not the same economy that it was earlier in the year.  The stock market reflects what is going on in big business and for what it's worth, the top big business are making money in this economy and will continue to do so.  

The market is also forward looking and sees the end of the pandemic in the not too distant future. There is less and less uncertainty as we move forward with vaccinations so though there may be a temporary worsening of the economy due to lack of stimulus, the long term is looking good. My opinion.

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21 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

No, but it's unlikely.  This economy is not the same economy that it was earlier in the year.  The stock market reflects what is going on in big business and for what it's worth, the top big business are making money in this economy and will continue to do so.  

 

17 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

The market is also forward looking and sees the end of the pandemic in the not too distant future. There is less and less uncertainty as we move forward with vaccinations so though there may be a temporary worsening of the economy due to lack of stimulus, the long term is looking good. My opinion.

Agree. The current economy is a boon for big business. They are raking it in at the expense of the little guy. I also think the economy will take a hit after Christmas though as spending will fall off of a cliff without a stimulus package.  This is a real possibility with McConnell and Co. not wanting to send relief to state and local governments and threatening to shut down the whole package.

However, once the vaccine becomes widely distributed and we begin seeing a substantial drop in cases, ULCA economists are predicting a "roaring 20's" type of recovery. I don't disagree with this. You're not supposed to time the market, but with a downturn in the economy looming, it would be a great time to buy.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9034905/Americans-ready-roaring-20s-say-UCLA-economists.html

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12 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

The market is also forward looking and sees the end of the pandemic in the not too distant future. There is less and less uncertainty as we move forward with vaccinations so though there may be a temporary worsening of the economy due to lack of stimulus, the long term is looking good. My opinion.

^ this

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Once the "active" elderly people are vaccinated, this pandemic is over. They won't even vaccinate children now and I suspect the people vaccinated under 50 will be pretty low. Its clearly the 70-90 demographic that need it asap. They are the ones dying at a high rate. Once they stop going to the hospital, the medical system will unclog and it will just be another seasonal illness.

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4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Once the "active" elderly people are vaccinated, this pandemic is over. They won't even vaccinate children now and I suspect the people vaccinated under 50 will be pretty low. Its clearly the 70-90 demographic that need it asap. They are the ones dying at a high rate. Once they stop going to the hospital, the medical system will unclog and it will just be another seasonal illness.

I actually agree with you for the most part :drunk:

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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Not a great look...though it sounded like it would have been done today or tomorrow anyway. 

It is indeed a bad look.  The EUA is coming very soon anyway and now if it comes today, it will look like it was jammed through under threat.

If the administration wants to be able to take credit for the vaccine rollouts beginning in their term, that's fine.  But you can't pick and choose what aspects of this to own.  If you want to own the vaccines, then you own all of your policy decisions and rhetoric over the past several months -- good and bad.

We have seen former presidents say they would be willing to get vaccinated on camera.  I would hope we also see Mr. Trump get vaccinated on camera, given how much he has been touting the vaccines.  And he shouldn't hide behind the fact that he just had covid a couple months ago, because it appears that people who have had covid are also going to be advised to take the vaccine.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It is indeed a bad look.  The EUA is coming very soon anyway and now if it comes today, it will look like it was jammed through under threat.

If the administration wants to be able to take credit for the vaccine rollouts beginning in their term, that's fine.  But you can't pick and choose what aspects of this to own.  If you want to own the vaccines, then you own all of your policy decisions and rhetoric over the past several months -- good and bad.

We have seen former presidents say they would be willing to get vaccinated on camera.  I would hope we also see Mr. Trump get vaccinated on camera, given how much he has been touting the vaccines.  And he shouldn't hide behind the fact that he just had covid a couple months ago, because it appears that people who have had covid are also going to be advised to take the vaccine.

Yes. Especially given he fought the virus through passive vaccination (the antibody therapy). Its possible he doesn't have his own antibodies and the injected one will wane and he won't have memory B cells. Fauci said he'd get the vaccine on camera...im hoping others will too. 

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