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From March through July... 1,336,561 people died in the US.  The expected number (which is typically remarkably stable, outside of a freak occurrence like a pandemic of course) is 1,111,031, which is 225,000 more than expected.  Not all of the excess is directly because of the virus, but many are.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3948

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40 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

The whole mask argument just won't quit.  Anti-maskers keep flaunting "studies" that show that masks don't work, while ignoring the fact that the medical profession has worn them for many years due to their effectiveness.

I feel like the problem is that the public thinks they are safe if they have their mask on when around people who aren't wearing them and therefore do not worry about social distancing.  That, combined will improper mask usage, leads to virus spread.  I see dozens of people every day wearing a mask and not having their nose covered. Why even bother wearing one if you're going to do that?  I'm positive that some of these same people are the ones who claim that they contacted COVID even though they wear a mask.

 

This right here is the big key. If masks didn't work they wouldn't be standard in the medical profession.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

From March through July... 1,336,561 people died in the US.  The expected number (which is typically remarkably stable, outside of a freak occurrence like a pandemic of course) is 1,111,031, which is 225,000 more than expected.  Not all of the excess is directly because of the virus, but many are.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3948

Those statistics are telling. 

The case keeps being made that the many of the deaths are occurring to those with preexisting conditions/immuno-compromised individuals, and those with histories of substances abuse. The jury is still out on an increase in suicides.

I propose that almost all of the increase in the number of deaths over average from March through July were caused by COVID, even if indirectly.  Statistically,  they wouldn't have died when they did if it weren't for the virus.

Just because they didn't directly die of the virus, they are still a victim of it.  I've lost patience with those who continue to poo-poo the idea that if they didn't die from it directly that they don't count. Everybody counts.

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4 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Ya I've wondered the same, but seems most want to discount that to a conspiracy theory..

There has been a 20% increase in deaths this year.  Roughly 225,000 more deaths than what would be expected.  So basically what you're insinuating is hospitals have conspired across the country to come up with an extra 225,000 death certificates, and marking their causes of death as Covid, to profit from this scheme.  I guess funeral homes were also colluding on this scheme.  They make a ton of money from cremation and burials, after all.

Excess deaths have also been observed throughout the world.  Do these financial incentives exist in all of these other countries too?

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

 

So yes, that's why people who believe this nonsense are immediately deemed dark web conspiracy theorists.  Because they are.

 

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Cuomo is literally causing thousands of businesses to close down in NYS. He does not care one bit. He also issued a travel advisory in which it is basically impossible to travel anywhere as employers are taking it extremely seriously. Governors should not have ultimate power like he does.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-travel-advisory

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3 hours ago, Nickysixes said:

This info suggests the mask mandates are here to prolong the silly "Covid" crisis...

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/12/cdc-study-finds-overwhelming-majority-of-people-getting-coronavirus-wore-masks/

The point of masking is to protect others, not yourself.  That point has been stressed over and over.  Up to 40% of spread is from asymptomatic carriers who don't realize they are carrying it, hence why masks have been promoted as public health policy.  It doesn't offer that much protection to the wearer -- especially if everyone surrounding you is not wearing a mask.

If you can find me some documented examples of super spreader events where everyone was wearing a mask throughout the event, that would be more noteworthy.  

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomo is literally causing thousands of businesses to close down in NYS. He does not care one bit. He also issued a travel advisory in which it is basically impossible to travel anywhere as employers are taking it extremely seriously. Governors should not have ultimate power like he does.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-travel-advisory

This is happening all over the country though.  Lots of states have travel restrictions from other states.  For most of the summer, Florida was requiring all travelers arriving from NY to quarantine for two weeks.  Even though NY had much, much fewer Covid cases than Florida did over the summer.

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1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

There has been a 20% increase in deaths this year.  Roughly 225,000 more deaths than what would be expected.  So basically what you're insinuating is hospitals have conspired across the country to come up with an extra 225,000 death certificates, and marking their causes of death as Covid, to profit from this scheme.  I guess funeral homes were also colluding on this scheme.  They make a ton of money from cremation and burials, after all.

Excess deaths have also been observed throughout the world.  Do these financial incentives exist in all of these other countries too?

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

 

So yes, that's why people who believe this nonsense are immediately deemed dark web conspiracy theorists.  Because they are.

 

Ironically, the first person (of several) that I am friends with to contract Covid, and in fact died from it, was a mortician.

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1 hour ago, Inverted_Trough said:

There has been a 20% increase in deaths this year.  Roughly 225,000 more deaths than what would be expected.  So basically what you're insinuating is hospitals have conspired across the country to come up with an extra 225,000 death certificates, and marking their causes of death as Covid, to profit from this scheme.  I guess funeral homes were also colluding on this scheme.  They make a ton of money from cremation and burials, after all.

Excess deaths have also been observed throughout the world.  Do these financial incentives exist in all of these other countries too?

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

 

So yes, that's why people who believe this nonsense are immediately deemed dark web conspiracy theorists.  Because they are.

 

Obviously not every single one lol.   Are some getting miss-marked for financial gain...sure. 

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3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Obviously not every single one lol.   Are some getting miss-marked for financial gain...sure. 

Yes, I'm sure that it happens.  Health insurance fraud is a big problem in general -- especially Medicare fraud.  That was the case before Covid too.

My issue is that some people hear about a few cases where this might have occurred, so then they extrapolate this to all cases, and then try to convince everyone that the disease isn't real or it's a hoax.  If anything, you could infer from the excess death statistics that we are undercounting a bit.  Some countries appear to be undercounting by a lot (e.g. Peru, Mexico, Ecuador)

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CDC did a commercial lab survey over all 50 states. The results from mid August show an estimated just under 20 million infections. The reported cases at the time was about 5.5 million. Confirmed/probable deaths at that time were about 175000. 

So the number of exposed Americans now is probably around 9 or perhaps 10%. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab

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16 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Cuomo is literally causing thousands of businesses to close down in NYS. He does not care one bit. He also issued a travel advisory in which it is basically impossible to travel anywhere as employers are taking it extremely seriously. Governors should not have ultimate power like he does.

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-travel-advisory

Well said sir! :clap:

It's the biggest issue I have with this, Governors can do as little or as much as they want. If Ohio's Governor comes out tomorrow and says that everyone must wear an Ohio State ballcap with a face shield attached to the bill before entering indoor places, what check is there to stop this? As I said previously my company has two main offices in Chicago & Ann Arbor.

Because of the WFH restrictions Michigan's governor has imposed, we're having a difficult time hiring people because it's so difficult to align people into the office.

image.png.105b20b03b208fce626257ca6db93de2.png

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27 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Well said sir! :clap:

It's the biggest issue I have with this, Governors can do as little or as much as they want. If Ohio's Governor comes out tomorrow and says that everyone must wear an Ohio State ballcap with a face shield attached to the bill before entering indoor places, what check is there to stop this? As I said previously my company has two main offices in Chicago & Ann Arbor.

Because of the WFH restrictions Michigan's governor has imposed, we're having a difficult time hiring people because it's so difficult to align people into the office.

image.png.105b20b03b208fce626257ca6db93de2.png

Just to be clear, you have a problem with people who can work remotely working remotely? Why?

Mind you attempting to hire someone isn't something I would deem as a remote work activity, if your job does that it is a mistake.

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46 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Just to be clear, you have a problem with people who can work remotely working remotely? Why?

Mind you attempting to hire someone isn't something I would deem as a remote work activity, if your job does that it is a mistake.

We were able to hire and train a forecasters remotely over the past several weeks. Definitely a bit different but its gone pretty well. 

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46 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Well said sir! :clap:

It's the biggest issue I have with this, Governors can do as little or as much as they want. If Ohio's Governor comes out tomorrow and says that everyone must wear an Ohio State ballcap with a face shield attached to the bill before entering indoor places, what check is there to stop this? As I said previously my company has two main offices in Chicago & Ann Arbor.

Because of the WFH restrictions Michigan's governor has imposed, we're having a difficult time hiring people because it's so difficult to align people into the office.

image.png.105b20b03b208fce626257ca6db93de2.png

We’ve done all interviews on skype and it’s been fine.  Certainly better than face to face with masks on.

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8 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

fwiw, I thought there would be a higher surge in the summer, but I forgot it was the summer. If 200-250 thousand people a week had officially gotten it, the temporary immunity would have been enough for awhile by December.

New York's problem is the massive 19 million NYC corridor. Its a disease center. They move all over the state, up and down from NYC to Albany to Buffalo. That said, its moved to Phase 3 of restrictions. Cases are rising. As expected. Going to phase 4 would trigger more cases and hospitalizations. Older people are hard to mask and socially distance. My view is if they wan to take the chance, let them. Has been that way since April. But they will die, in large large numbers.

People between the age of 60-90 are very weak against this cold. They clog up hospitals.

Do you mean per day?  Because we were getting 200,000 to about 400,000 confirmed cases per week in the summer.

Widespread herd immunity seems like it would be really hard to pull off with covid-19, especially with it becoming more clear that reinfections can happen some months after getting it.  It would sort of be like a hamster running on the wheel.   You'd have to get so many people sick so fast (before the immunity starts to wear off), which the hospitals wouldn't be able to handle.  Trying to keep it contained to younger people isn't a bad idea on paper, but it inevitably ends up spreading to older/more vulnerable as time goes by.

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I work in a hospital setting. We wear masks to prevent infection spread from patients. The distinction here with wearing masks everywhere is...why are we doing it?

The reasoning is that it will slow the spread. It will not prevent you from getting a novel virus for long; it just helps hospitals avoid becoming overwhelmed with new patients.

We're past that point. At this point, these factors are only prolonging the inevitable. With a virus that exhibits an R value in excess of 3 - you're just not going to avoid it, you'll just drag it out. A disease with a survival rate of 99.6% - and 99.994% if you're under 50, I believe - is it really worth prolonging it all? Are we not just adding a financial and economic dynamic to the tragedy?

I wear a mask every day, even here in the UP, but I am sympathetic to those who think the problem is more complicated. We can't just hide indefinitely; there will likely be more and more of these relatively benign viruses going forward. What we need to prepare for are viruses like Nipah, MERS, etc - viruses with a CFR closer to 30%-70% rather than <1% as it is with Covid.

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1 hour ago, Angrysummons said:

Your survival rate is incorrect. Its about the same as the Spanish flu, which effected the opposite end of the spectrum. For the most part, half of the US is wide open. There are no economic restrictions. The next 25% have modest restrictions(Ohio is one of those). The final 25% have harder restrictions. Nobody is locked down anymore. Economic problems were there before COVID. The debt bubble in CRE/Corporate debt imploded and was headed that way by the end of 2020. Covid just sped it up.

No, it's not anywhere near as bad as the Spanish Flu. The CFR for the Spanish flu was between 1% - 3% across the world depending on location. Covid is significantly lower.

That's compounded by the fact that the Spanish Flu displayed a so called W shaped curve - because there was a disproportionately higher CFR among people between ages 18-40 years old. Given that its CFR was linked to cytokine storms - it was more likely to kill people with better, healthier, immune systems.

Covid is in no way on par with that - or even close.

 

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The death rate in Covid relates, in general, to symptomatic cases. There's a massive number of asymptomatic cases that are only slightly beng factored in to the assessment of CFR. Most likely, Covid has a CFR between 0.3% and 0.6%. Almost all of our data only pertains to people who are diagnosed after exhibiting symptoms strong enough to warrant a check.

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