Blizzard of 93 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Where was this pattern from January to March? The 0z EPS has this look to end April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: A lot of wet weather in store for most of us after tomorrow... Another bad weekend possible....just terrible timing but as has been mentioned a lot we do not seem to have much in the way of spring as of late. Windy, chilly and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Where was this pattern from January to March? The 0z EPS has this look to end April! ^^^^ Screw that. I'm ready for Sunny and 80 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Spring Reversal....between March 1 and April 10 we only had 6 days below seasonal norms at MDT. Since April 10 we have had 11 of the next 12 days below Seasonal norms. So only 6 out of 40 below followed by 11 out of 12 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 @Blizzard of 93 Here is the ultimate kick in the groin... E. Horst, MUWIC@MUweather After a winter w/ little high-latitude blocking, we now have a wintery pattern with a split jet stream and some Greenland blocking. If this was January or February, Pennsylvania would be in for 3 snowstorms in the next 7 days. Instead, we'll get chilly rain on FRI, SUN, TUE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Spring Reversal....between March 1 and April 10 we only had 6 days below seasonal norms. Since April 10 we have had 11 of the next 12 days have been below Seasonal norms. So only 6 out of 40 below followed by 11 out of 12 below. Bingo. It's like mother nature completely reversed months on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 I’m not giving up, lol!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’m not giving up, lol! . You should probably change your password. Apparently you have been Blizzacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 40 degrees and windy at noontime on April 22nd straight up blows chunks. 'nuff said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Where was this pattern from January to March? The 0z EPS has this look to end April! Exactly Blizz! I was thinking the same thing yesterday. Geez. I'm still holding out for May snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 56 minutes ago, Voyager said: 40 degrees and windy at noontime on April 22nd straight up blows chunks. 'nuff said... I understand where you're coming from, but there are indications that it will be an above average summer temperature wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I understand where you're coming from, but there are indications that it will be an above average summer temperature wise. Below average summer would be perfect. Sunshine, 70's, lemonade, sitting with people finally, baseball, apple pie, fireworks. Snow in late April and May is so bad that the sun angle folks will not even waste time with a reply about that side of it. LOL I think Blizz wants off the schneid and for this not to be the worst winter snowfall wise in MDT history (season not Met winter) but I say lets keep the record and buy t-shirts that we lived through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Below average summer would be perfect. Sunshine, 70's, lemonade, sitting with people finally, baseball, apple pie, fireworks. Snow in late April and May is so bad that the sun angle folks will not even waste time with a reply about that side of it. LOL I think Blizz wants off the schneid and for this not to be the worst winter snowfall wise in MDT history (season not Met winter) but I say lets keep the record and buy t-shirts that we lived through it. With the way 2020 has gone the possibilities of May snow higher than normal. and I don't really care about the sun angles. But I will say I am also ready for warmer outside weather no doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 More than anything else...I'm ready for a stretch of days with no wind. It has been nearly relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Blizzard of 93 Here is the ultimate kick in the groin... E. Horst, MUWIC@MUweather After a winter w/ little high-latitude blocking, we now have a wintery pattern with a split jet stream and some Greenland blocking. If this was January or February, Pennsylvania would be in for 3 snowstorms in the next 7 days. Instead, we'll get chilly rain on FRI, SUN, TUE. Yes, frustrating indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 22, 2020 Share Posted April 22, 2020 5 hours ago, paweather said: Exactly Blizz! I was thinking the same thing yesterday. Geez. I'm still holding out for May snow! Well you might get your wish if the 12z Euro delivers what it is advertising for Sunday night. This is remarkable to even see it on the Euro this late in the year. Also, this is only 4 to 5 days away and not some crazy day 15 forecast. This would be something to see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Guys...I have refrained from all the virus discussion just so I can maintain my sanity. I have an anxiety disorder (take meds) and I don't have to tell you that without my beloved gym 6 days/week as was my normal routine, it's becoming more challenging. I'm commenting tonight because Governor Wolf just held his news conference where he laid out his plans for reopening the state. IT'S NOT GOOD! For us along and east of the Susquehanna, unless the positive case counts does an immediate about-face in the next few days there is no way our area will reopen at all on May 8th. To be specific, he's doing it by county prevalence. He says that any county must be at a level of 50 positive cases per 100,000 population count or under for 14 consecutive days before any relaxation of anything will commence! I checked, the population of Cumberland county is roughly 200,000. The positive cases today came in at 202. That's easy math. That's a ratio of 100 cases per 100,000 population count. That means that our county is more than twice the level he has outlined in order to have any reopening of any businesses. I haven't checked but I'd be willing to bet Lancaster county's ratio is worse than 2:1. I am one of the lucky ones on here. I retired 2 years ago and don't have a job to worry about. My wife works from home full time in a job that is unaffected by the pandemic. We sold our home last October and moved into an apartment in November. We had planned on waiting until Feb or Mar to put the house up, but we changed our minds because of how hot the market was at the time. Please don't take what I'm saying the wrong way. I pray for all of you whose jobs/livelihoods have been horribly impacted. I'm just fortunate to be a little older than most of you. I'll continue to pray for all of us and for our own health for that matter. I'm in an at-risk category being 60 and having asthma and a predisposition to bronchitis. So, I pretty much do have to stay at home as much as I can. But, I want my gym back!!!!! By the way, it even looks like the first level of reopening from Gov Wolf does not include gyms. Maybe by August before we reach level green? Edit:>>I went ahead and did Lancaster county. You don't want to know. It's four times worse than Cumberland county. Population is 545,000 and positive case count as of today (4/22) is 1,326 which gives a ratio of about four times worse than Cumberland county. In decimal format we need a value of 0.0005 or less after you divide the positive cases by the population. Cumberland is 0.001 (twice the threshold) and Lancaster is 0.0026 (four times the threshold). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 And Schuylkill County has a 200 per 100,000 rate right now. It's going to be quite awhile before it's go time for us. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share Posted April 23, 2020 Lol, mangled snow flakes mixed in with this early batch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share Posted April 23, 2020 3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: Guys...I have refrained from all the virus discussion just so I can maintain my sanity. I have an anxiety disorder (take meds) and I don't have to tell you that without my beloved gym 6 days/week as was my normal routine, it's becoming more challenging. I'm commenting tonight because Governor Wolf just held his news conference where he laid out his plans for reopening the state. IT'S NOT GOOD! For us along and east of the Susquehanna, unless the positive case counts does an immediate about-face in the next few days there is no way our area will reopen at all on May 8th. To be specific, he's doing it by county prevalence. He says that any county must be at a level of 50 positive cases per 100,000 population count or under for 14 consecutive days before any relaxation of anything will commence! I checked, the population of Cumberland county is roughly 200,000. The positive cases today came in at 202. That's easy math. That's a ratio of 100 cases per 100,000 population count. That means that our county is more than twice the level he has outlined in order to have any reopening of any businesses. I haven't checked but I'd be willing to bet Lancaster county's ratio is worse than 2:1. I am one of the lucky ones on here. I retired 2 years ago and don't have a job to worry about. My wife works from home full time in a job that is unaffected by the pandemic. We sold our home last October and moved into an apartment in November. We had planned on waiting until Feb or Mar to put the house up, but we changed our minds because of how hot the market was at the time. Please don't take what I'm saying the wrong way. I pray for all of you whose jobs/livelihoods have been horribly impacted. I'm just fortunate to be a little older than most of you. I'll continue to pray for all of us and for our own health for that matter. I'm in an at-risk category being 60 and having asthma and a predisposition to bronchitis. So, I pretty much do have to stay at home as much as I can. But, I want my gym back!!!!! By the way, it even looks like the first level of reopening from Gov Wolf does not include gyms. Maybe by August before we reach level green? Edit:>>I went ahead and did Lancaster county. You don't want to know. It's four times worse than Cumberland county. Population is 545,000 and positive case count as of today (4/22) is 1,326 which gives a ratio of about four times worse than Cumberland county. In decimal format we need a value of 0.0005 or less after you divide the positive cases by the population. Cumberland is 0.001 (twice the threshold) and Lancaster is 0.0026 (four times the threshold). It's a little bit confusing but I'm pretty sure these guidelines are talking about keeping a 14 day average of new cases below that 50 per 100,000 threshold. So for Cumberland County's estimated 253,370 people.. the 50 per 100,000 (0.0005) would come out to staying under 127 new cases in a 14 day period. Or in other words, they would have to average no more than about 9 new cases per day over the two weeks. Since Cumberland County as of today has only had 207 total cases for the whole span of this outbreak, you may be a lot closer to the threshold to relaxing guidelines than you think. Otherwise, how would a county whose total number of cases already exceeded infecting 50 per 100,000 people ever technically reach the guidelines to relax restrictions? PA doesn't keep track of who has recovered from this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Lol, mangled snow flakes mixed in with this early batch of precip. Congrats! What do you think of the snow chances for CTP that the Euro has been advertising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted April 23, 2020 Author Share Posted April 23, 2020 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Congrats! What do you think of the snow chances for CTP that the Euro has been advertising? Definitely a slim chance of happening even in the mountains, but the only other widespread notable snowfall that's occurred this late in western/central PA was back in 1928.. so that's to be expected. For this to have a chance this advertised system will have to transfer the low to the coast, preferably early enough to get a solid Delmarva low. That's what today's 12z Euro and previous runs of either that or the GFS has done the last few days when they've occasionally had the snowfall solution. The models have a high in position to the north, but generally they're keeping a primary up into PA or the Lakes. New Canadian does have a timely transfer to the coast decently south of PA, but just a bit too warm overall with maybe high Laurel's changing over. That model had a much stronger high. Very little ensemble support right now for the wintry side. New GEFS siding generally with GFS op maintaining a dominant primary west of PA. 18z Euro ensemble showed much more signs of a decent secondary low but no snowfall. Scrutinized the Canadian a bit more, since it showed a solution that in the actual season of winter would have equaled a major snowstorm for all of C-PA. 850 temps are there, 925 and surface are not. And that illustrates why it is so hard to actually get something this late. The deep easterly fetch directly into PA on that solution would equal a pile of snow in the dead of winter, but the low level easterly flow (at 925mb to the surface) is a detriment in this case with cooling the temps enough sans significant dynamic cooling. And the solar insolation this far into spring is going to warm surface temps even with cloud cover, esp lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 6 hours ago, MAG5035 said: It's a little bit confusing but I'm pretty sure these guidelines are talking about keeping a 14 day average of new cases below that 50 per 100,000 threshold. So for Cumberland County's estimated 253,370 people.. the 50 per 100,000 (0.0005) would come out to staying under 127 new cases in a 14 day period. Or in other words, they would have to average no more than about 9 new cases per day over the two weeks. Since Cumberland County as of today has only had 207 total cases for the whole span of this outbreak, you may be a lot closer to the threshold to relaxing guidelines than you think. Otherwise, how would a county whose total number of cases already exceeded infecting 50 per 100,000 people ever technically reach the guidelines to relax restrictions? PA doesn't keep track of who has recovered from this thing. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Scheduled my new roof installation for this morning, April 23rd. I could not have foreseen these guys up on my roof with sleet falling... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Voyager said: Makes sense. In reading the order I do not think it is as bad as it may sound but its not good for the eastern 1/2 to 1/3 of the state either. I think a lot of people assumed some openings would be coming May 8th and that does not sound likely though some construction can now resume on May 1. Small Businesses are going to need more free money to come back and survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 12 hours ago, MAG5035 said: It's a little bit confusing but I'm pretty sure these guidelines are talking about keeping a 14 day average of new cases below that 50 per 100,000 threshold. So for Cumberland County's estimated 253,370 people.. the 50 per 100,000 (0.0005) would come out to staying under 127 new cases in a 14 day period. Or in other words, they would have to average no more than about 9 new cases per day over the two weeks. Since Cumberland County as of today has only had 207 total cases for the whole span of this outbreak, you may be a lot closer to the threshold to relaxing guidelines than you think. Otherwise, how would a county whose total number of cases already exceeded infecting 50 per 100,000 people ever technically reach the guidelines to relax restrictions? PA doesn't keep track of who has recovered from this thing. Thank you, MAG for clarifying this! What you are saying makes a lot more sense, and at least it provides a way to reach Green a lot sooner than I first feared. Cumberland's new cases per day has averaged less than 10 over the past 14 days. Does that mean we can go straight to Green on May 8th? I'm not sure I saw the criteria for progressing from Yellow to Green. Sorry to all about misinterpreting this! Edit:>>I just got the exact figures for Cumberland. For the 14-day period from April 9 to April 22 the total new cases was 114, which is an average of 8.5 new cases per day. But we have to get to May 8th and then look at the preceding 14 days, so we aren't even at the beginning of the look-back period, which won't start until this Saturday. Yesterday's new cases for Cumberland was 13 from the preceding day. So at this present moment we are exceeding the 127 threshold. So, you're right, MAG, we are close to a relaxation but not there yet. I just re-read the news article from the Governor's plan. I couldn't find any specifics as to what criteria will determine moving from Yellow to Green. It looks like breaking below the 127 threshold would be enough to get us out of Red and into Yellow. I can't tell if there is any published info on how we get from Yellow to Green. If anybody finds or has those specifics please post them here. Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 15 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: Guys...I have refrained from all the virus discussion just so I can maintain my sanity. I have an anxiety disorder (take meds) and I don't have to tell you that without my beloved gym 6 days/week as was my normal routine, it's becoming more challenging. I'm commenting tonight because Governor Wolf just held his news conference where he laid out his plans for reopening the state. IT'S NOT GOOD! For us along and east of the Susquehanna, unless the positive case counts does an immediate about-face in the next few days there is no way our area will reopen at all on May 8th. To be specific, he's doing it by county prevalence. He says that any county must be at a level of 50 positive cases per 100,000 population count or under for 14 consecutive days before any relaxation of anything will commence! I checked, the population of Cumberland county is roughly 200,000. The positive cases today came in at 202. That's easy math. That's a ratio of 100 cases per 100,000 population count. That means that our county is more than twice the level he has outlined in order to have any reopening of any businesses. I haven't checked but I'd be willing to bet Lancaster county's ratio is worse than 2:1. I am one of the lucky ones on here. I retired 2 years ago and don't have a job to worry about. My wife works from home full time in a job that is unaffected by the pandemic. We sold our home last October and moved into an apartment in November. We had planned on waiting until Feb or Mar to put the house up, but we changed our minds because of how hot the market was at the time. Please don't take what I'm saying the wrong way. I pray for all of you whose jobs/livelihoods have been horribly impacted. I'm just fortunate to be a little older than most of you. I'll continue to pray for all of us and for our own health for that matter. I'm in an at-risk category being 60 and having asthma and a predisposition to bronchitis. So, I pretty much do have to stay at home as much as I can. But, I want my gym back!!!!! By the way, it even looks like the first level of reopening from Gov Wolf does not include gyms. Maybe by August before we reach level green? Edit:>>I went ahead and did Lancaster county. You don't want to know. It's four times worse than Cumberland county. Population is 545,000 and positive case count as of today (4/22) is 1,326 which gives a ratio of about four times worse than Cumberland county. In decimal format we need a value of 0.0005 or less after you divide the positive cases by the population. Cumberland is 0.001 (twice the threshold) and Lancaster is 0.0026 (four times the threshold). Exactly, and they are now counting "Probable" Cases. We might as well call us Philadelphia and change my city name at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 Wet days ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted April 23, 2020 Share Posted April 23, 2020 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wet days ahead... WOW. That is craziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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