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Hurricane Agnes

E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2020 OBS Thread

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GFS has highs in the 40's on May 6 and 10th. The 6th is a cold rain and the 10th is under sunny skies. We are at the rubicon of ridiculousness. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Euro and UKMET(as well as other guidance) continues to hint at big rain on Thursday afternoon/evening. Totals across all guidance has ticked up today at 12z but the Euro and UKMET have some places near the 3" mark in 6-12 hours time. 

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

GFS has highs in the 40's on May 6 and 10th. The 6th is a cold rain and the 10th is under sunny skies. We are at the rubicon of ridiculousness. 

 

Glenn mentioned the 6th last night...pretty much rain/40s-50's....5/10 was out of his "10 day".

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

GFS has highs in the 40's on May 6 and 10th. The 6th is a cold rain and the 10th is under sunny skies. We are at the rubicon of ridiculousness. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Glenn mentioned the 6th last night...pretty much rain/40s-50's....5/10 was out of his "10 day".

The 6th was a bonafide Poconos paste job on last night's European model. 

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22 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Euro and UKMET(as well as other guidance) continues to hint at big rain on Thursday afternoon/evening. Totals across all guidance has ticked up today at 12z but the Euro and UKMET have some places near the 3" mark in 6-12 hours time. 

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

Lol, I've been waiting to seed my "flood plain" out back, looks like another topsoil order may be in my future first.

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26 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Lol, I've been waiting to seed my "flood plain" out back, looks like another topsoil order may be in my future first.

Those amounts are heavy duty and it's not like a 2 day event, relatively quick. Overall should be fun to track...

62F/sunny w/some gust. Speaking of, when my hat blows off my hair looks like Boris Johnson only 5x longer. A true nightmare and awkward at times...

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6 hours ago, RedSky said:

GFS has highs in the 40's on May 6 and 10th. The 6th is a cold rain and the 10th is under sunny skies. We are at the rubicon of ridiculousness. 

 

 

 

 

 

Absurdity at it's finest... :wacko2:

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Have  3.5" of rain on the month.  See if 5 inches is attainable by days end tomorrow.  At least the weekend and a couple days after look pretty good.  Get some 70's going in there.  

 

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13 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Have  3.5" of rain on the month.  See if 5 inches is attainable by days end tomorrow.  At least the weekend and a couple days after look pretty good.  Get some 70's going in there.  

 

Looks doable!

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

64 and sunny here. Two days in a row, somewhat disorienting, but not a problem at all!

Yeah, strange.   No complaints here.  Lots of pollen today, though.  

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The upper levels are moving so fast with so many disturbances Sunday is turning into another rain day on 12z guidance. 

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Updated Day 1-3 QPF map from WPC

 

d13_fill.gif?1588182890441

 

 
Quote

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... A longwave trough draped across the OH/TN Valley will continue to migrate eastward Thursday into early Friday as a ridge axis in the west starts to build into the midsection of the country. At the surface, a low in the Great Lakes region will lift north and east through the period helping to guide a trailing cold front through the eastern U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Thursday morning along and just ahead of the aforementioned cold front across portions of the coastal plain region of NC/VA into the mid-Atlantic region. Anticipate this precipitation to move east through the period, slowing and also expanding in coverage as the mid-level trough axis becomes negatively tilted. This tilt will not only enhance the large scale forcing for ascent, but usher in moisture from the Atlantic that will promote more expansive coverage and intensity of precipitation. At the update, it was also noted that distinct waves of mid-level impulses pivoting around the aforementioned trough should assist in lift and intensification of precipitation that could result in very narrow bands of locally higher storm total values. While there will be plenty of synoptic scale kinematic forcing, moisture will also be quite robust. Precipitable water values will climb above 1.25 inches aided by 40-50+ knot south/southeasterly flow; this is over 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. The one limiting factor is instability (which is most defined along the coast of the Carolinas), but could be underestimated farther north within this warm advection regime. Regardless, the slow progression of this front should promote training precipitation across the region as energy shifts northeast across the mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, combined with strong low level winds paralleling the front. As a result, areal average precipitation across the central East Coast, Mid-Atlantic and southern tier of the Northeast may average around 1.5-2.75+ inches. It appears that eastern PA into southern NY will likely see the highest storm totals not only due to the moisture convergence and slow progression, but also due to terrain enhancement is across the Poconos and Catskills. As we move into the Day 2 period, model spread continues with the EC being most robust with the QPF footprint and totals. Regardless, confidence is still high that based on the pattern setup alone, there will be multiple hours of moderate, to at times heavy rain across portions eastern PA/DE, NJ/CT and southern portions of NY. Given this region has received an abundance of precipitation as of late (reflected also in lower flash flood guidance values) and much of which could fall over urban areas, felt a Slight Risk should be maintained and expanded based on the latest WPC QPF forecast/footprint.

 

 

No local creeks/rivers forecasts to get above action stage for now, but will be interesting to see their rise on Thursday into Friday.

 

 

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12z Euro, backed off a bit on the higher totals but still pretty robust especially across 95 and the pocono's.

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

UKMET still VERY robust

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

GFS is not as gung ho around 95 but still showing the higher amounts in the higher elevations

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

3km NAM shows the heaviest amounts just NW of 95

 

qpf_acc.us_ne.png

 

Overall looking like a good bet for widespread 1-2" rain mostly falling in a 6 hour period. Some places in the LV/Pocono's could see 3-4" lollipops imo. Should be a fun little storm with the wind and rain. 

 

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43 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The upper levels are moving so fast with so many disturbances Sunday is turning into another rain day on 12z guidance. 

Looks more like Sunday night late afternoon at least. Euro is pretty amped with it. Show's another round of widespread 1"+ rains. That could cause problems if tomorrow doesn't. At the very least creeks/rivers will be running high after tomorrow. Not sure they'll be much lower come sunday night. I will say that there appears to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Looks to be a pattern change after that system.

 

qpf_024h.us_ne.png

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Mt. Holly just upgraded the Wind Advisory for I-95 corridor on east to a High Wind Warning -

Quote

High Wind Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

DEZ001>003-NJZ013-014-016>022-026-027-PAZ070-071-010000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WI.Y.0010.200430T1400Z-200501T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.HW.W.0003.200430T1400Z-200501T0000Z/
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-
Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Freehold,
Sandy Hook, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill,
Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton,
Long Beach Island, Wharton State Forest, Media, and Philadelphia
920 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey, southeast
  Pennsylvania and central, northern and southern Delaware.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages will be possible. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

 

20200430-nws-highwindwarning-floodwatch-phi-highwindwarning-windadv-floodwatch-phiarea.PNG

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Current temp here is 65 and overcast.  I was out pulling some scallions (that grew over the winter in my raised "vegtrug" unit believe it or not) and got briefly splattered on with some raindrops.  The main firehose is still to the west.

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1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Current temp here is 65 and overcast.  I was out pulling some scallions (that grew over the winter in my raised "vegtrug" unit believe it or not) and got briefly splattered on with some raindrops.  The main firehose is still to the west.

We're still dry here yet as well. We had a enough rain to wet the pavement, but not even register in the gauge, sometime prior to sunrise, but that was it. Nothing since then except for a gusty breeze.

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Haven't had too much wind yet, but it is starting to pick up a bit now.   Clouds are racing, though.   65.7F with a 61 dew.  

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1 hour ago, BBasile said:

Haven't had too much wind yet, but it is starting to pick up a bit now.   Clouds are racing, though.   65.7F with a 61 dew.  

Gusty as hell here, may bring out the kite....

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30 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Gusty as hell here, may bring out the kite....

Is here as well, now.  Currently 21 mph gusting to 38.  

Already hearing reports of wires and trees down on the fire band.  

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Line doesn't seem to be making much progress east. Looks like some heavy training over Lancaster Co.

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5 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Line doesn't seem to be making much progress east. Looks like some heavy training over Lancaster Co.

Seems to have moved eastward by about 25 miles over the last 4 hours.  

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