SnowDawg Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 6 minutes ago, Lookout said: I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing. I'm assuming the same applies for the N GA Mtns? I thought the run looked good but for some reason it kept it as rain throughout. Seems to me looking at the thermal profiles on basically all the models, it feels like the main limiting factor in this area would be QPF, not temps. I really expected with it showing around 0.5 QPF it would have looked better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The high NAM totals in previous maps, probably include tomorrow and We’d too This is the 24-hr accumulated snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: What needs to happen to get rid of that warm nose? More robust precip is going to bring a greater threat of warm nosing (850mb low or trough tracking too far north across northern GA/SC)...you want to see a weaker system with a more diffuse 850mb low with still the possiblity of the precip being noteworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Looked at the column for my backyard(far western Durham county) and it looks safely isothermal for the entire event. There’s not even a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, bargainmusic said: This is the 24-hr accumulated snowfall map. Yeah, somebody posted a NAM qpf map a page back, with 2-4” of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 ICON has about half an inch of QPF falling as snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, somebody posted a NAM qpf map a page back, with 2-4” of liquid That's because it will rain for the next two days before the main event arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: That's because it will rain for the next two days before the main event arrives GFS looking moist, N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GFS following the same trend keeping more interaction with the s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GFS better this time... not as flat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GFS out to 81 has more precip across NC this run...nothing huge, but it bumped north with precip. Temps were similar, maybe just barely warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, griteater said: GFS out to 81 has more precip across NC this run...nothing huge, but it bumped north with precip. Temps were similar, maybe just barely warmer Wow at the GFS, another boom for E NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Baby steps but definitely step. Temps were an issue with lighter precip in western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GFS has the frontogenesis in practically the same location as the NAM but with much less precip. My guess is the NAM can better see where moisture can be squeezed out of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 GFS Trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Baby steps but definitely step. Temps were an issue with lighter precip in western NC The trend is our friend. Crazy that the long range NAM is going to score another win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Just now, griteater said: GFS Trend I’d really expect more QPF response with this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Trying to learn here. Is this going to be strictly rate driven? 850s look good with cold moving in . Not sure what to pull for here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The trend is our friend. Crazy that the long range NAM is going to score another win. Too early to say that yet. I think tommorows model runs will either make or break this for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: I’d really expect more QPF response with this look It will get there. Sadly, we can predict where the GFS is going better than it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 17 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS Trend If you trend the NAM, ICON, etc back, the westward trend each run on the modeling (with the SLP) is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: If you trend the NAM, ICON, etc back, the westward trend each run on the modeling (with the SLP) is there. It looks like the low is legit, and as you mentioned, getting stronger and closer to the coast, maybe we get some heavy precip and upslope and rates truly help more people get snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 On the crude, early UKMet 500mb maps, it looks similar from previous runs to me. It looks either the same (suppressed with precip) or maybe ever so slightly north...only going by crude 500mb maps though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 00z Canada is pretty warm initially into NC, but it ends up hitting the eastern 1/2 of the state or so pretty hard with snow. Sfc low is initially closer to the coast before tracking out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 0z CMC is a good run... continues the trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.