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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point  d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos.

Please let us know when it's safe to start talking about PD3....

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS def showing upside surprise potential for the weekend. Nice run. Oddly, the CMC and GEPS don't have the wave at all. Hard to flat out ignore that but I will. Go EPS!

Looks like about 30% have nice hits.  Agreed, nice uptick for the weekend.  I am getting to the point where I want to believe this weekend will happened but am waiting until 12Z Friday.  I have birthday plans for the weekend and I am telling people we have to go out Saturday.  Everyone in my family is laughing at me.

 

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I’m not buying the weekend thing until the Canadian gets back on board. To many whiffs showing up in the Ens still. Canadian had a big storm 2 nights ago and has completely lost it over the last 48hrs. 

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Graphical EPS output.  Not many show complete whiffs and a definite uptick of big storms.  

EPS 12z.png

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Well we've heard that some folks would rather have a parade of storms and take their chances that it'll work out with the cold air timing.  Looks like Feb 2020 will give you that opportunity.  

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37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks like it's starting to show a way for our region to be on the right side of the gradient at some point  d11+. As is it's a brief window of a few days with cold air overhead. It would only take 1 slow juicy gradient wave to launch our area out of the disaster zone. Guarded skepticism is warranted until it hits a range that is believable. I'm obviously pessimistic for now. If it breaks right we'll run naked in the streets. Or at least wearing candy apple red speedos. 

you should run naked in the streets next wed. Euro has JYO at 73!

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NWS Sterling not impressed with the weekend event.  Late afternoon Discussion excerpt.

A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the area during the day Saturday, but will quickly retreat offshore Saturday Night as a fast moving shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions during the day Saturday will give way to light rain and snow Saturday Night as ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave overspreads the area. The shortwave will be rather compact and progressive, so the duration of the precipitation will only be around six hours at any given spot. As a result, any precipitation will be confined to the Saturday Night time period. Thermal profiles near the surface will be rather marginal for snow. So while a little bit of snow can`t be ruled out anywhere across the forecast area, the best chance for some minor snow accumulations will be to the north and west of I-95.

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

you should run naked in the streets next wed. Euro has JYO at 73!

Wonder what kind of positive departures we will have for Feb hearing that.  +10?  +12?  It’s quite remarkable

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14 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Too much feast or famine for me....Ill bet on the famine

Same. Feel like this is going to be a classic rug pull.

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25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

NWS Sterling not impressed with the weekend event.  Late afternoon Discussion excerpt.

A weak ridge of high pressure will pass over the area during the day Saturday, but will quickly retreat offshore Saturday Night as a fast moving shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions during the day Saturday will give way to light rain and snow Saturday Night as ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave overspreads the area. The shortwave will be rather compact and progressive, so the duration of the precipitation will only be around six hours at any given spot. As a result, any precipitation will be confined to the Saturday Night time period. Thermal profiles near the surface will be rather marginal for snow. So while a little bit of snow can`t be ruled out anywhere across the forecast area, the best chance for some minor snow accumulations will be to the north and west of I-95.

ers wrote it :lol:

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Same. Feel like this is going to be a classic rug pull.

Yeah, a little more than half of the runs are 1" or less for the majority of folks.....in a marginal temp situation thats white rain.  I mean its cool to see quite a few big hits but Id like to see more moderate solutions than there are. We'll see.

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Little punctuation change and wow, plot twist. 

Ha!  Kind of reminds me of that book "Eats Shoots and Leaves", depending on how you punctuate that it can have vastly different meanings!!

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The energy crashing into the west coast at 96 is noticeably slower too, allowing our Sunday SW to dig in the TN valley.

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Just now, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, LP08 said:
GFS really amping the SW at 18z

Horrible

You received .5 digital inches at 12z.  You’re up to 1.5 now.  Progress!

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You received .5 digital inches at 12z.  You’re up to 1.5 now.  Progress!
It washes out and it's too warm. It's great for Kentucky though lol

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I'll be the voice of optimism. I'm just happy the odds seem to be increasing of seeing snow fall. It may be 40 degrees with no accumulation, but I'll enjoy what we can get lol

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, LP08 said:
You received .5 digital inches at 12z.  You’re up to 1.5 now.  Progress!

It washes out and it's too warm. It's great for Kentucky though lol

Amp it too much and you’ll be enjoying another bout of rain.

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I'll be the voice of optimism. I'm just happy the odds seem to be increasing of seeing snow fall. It may be 40 degrees with no accumulation, but I'll enjoy what we can get lol

I’ve seen that enough times already. I need my first storm that at least produces a complete covering of the blades of grass and complete road caving. I haven’t seen that yet. This GFS run doesn’t do it for me verbatim. 

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, LP08 said:
You received .5 digital inches at 12z.  You’re up to 1.5 now.  Progress!

It washes out and it's too warm. It's great for Kentucky though lol

That's the part that has me mostly disinterested. It's close on the heels of the Friday storm, the flow is fast/progressive, and the wave dampens as it moves east. With marginal temps we need something more dynamic to get more than snow tv or a coating.

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