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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Dr. No 12Z says go back to work for late next week.

So last week it insisted on cutter and was right...and this week it insists on suppressed...so I suppose we gotta assume what it shows is gonna happen unless, well, it changes, lol (stating the obvious, lol)

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4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Most on here realize the futility we have gone through this year. We get it. So why state the obvious (being failure) on something posted that actually has somewhat of a positive spin? All this negativity gets old, hell it has been old for several years now. Just saying.

Eta: you know, if you would have just added a reason to why the map was bs, any reasonable reason, then I would have been fine with it. But seeing as you didn't it becomes nothing more then just another post of the multitude we see these days that add no value except to add to the clutter and perpetuate the misery we see in here.

internet bully

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So last week it insisted on cutter and was right...and this week it insists on suppressed...so I suppose we gotta assume what it shows is gonna happen unless, well, it changes, lol (stating the obvious, lol)

I am saying that I won’t give much credence to what other models are showing until the EURO shows it too.

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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am saying that I won’t give much credence to what other models are showing until the EURO shows it too.

That would suck if we saw the same movie play out two weeks in a row on the modeling...but, that's this winter for ya.

As far as I'm concerned this threat is it for February as far as getting anything shovel-worthy this month. It ain't snowin' on the last week of February...that's my story and I'm stickin' to it, lol (kinda)

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GEPS was a nice run. Caved to the idea of a Canada ridge and cutting a trough under into the east. It’s likelt transient and it’s reloading the super + AO at the end but it would create a good window first. This temp profile works in early March. 

AFBA4FC6-FB49-4AB4-8B3E-E93ABD24A97F.thumb.png.b495fd4fa7e3a9f23f6b930b0f29097d.png

I am trying to be positive and at this point I’m just hunting for a look that could produce one storm.  That’s all. 

So far the possibility of a workable look to start March hasn’t collapsed....yet 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

GEPS was a nice run. Caved to the idea of a Canada ridge and cutting a trough under into the east. It’s likelt transient and it’s reloading the super + AO at the end but it would create a good window first. This temp profile works in early March. 

AFBA4FC6-FB49-4AB4-8B3E-E93ABD24A97F.thumb.png.b495fd4fa7e3a9f23f6b930b0f29097d.png

I am trying to be positive and at this point I’m just hunting for a look that could produce one storm.  That’s all. 

So far the possibility of a workable look to start March hasn’t collapsed....yet 

384 hours is too long of a way to go man...lol

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

384 hours is too long of a way to go man...lol

What do you want me to do about the fact the next 10 days (at least) we are still stuck in the same crap pattern?  Pattern change has to come first. Then maybe we get an event. Whether that is 5/10/15 days away you can’t force a threat where there isn’t one.  If you keep latching on to every lottery ticket level prayer from day 8 in this awful pattern you will continue to be let down and frustrated. Maybe something does hit on one of these crazy long shot setups that require 15 moving parts to all go our way but I bet if it does it will be something not resolved until short range and it pops up closer in. We are not getting some long range trackable event in this pattern. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What do you want me to do about the fact the next 10 days (at least) we are still stuck in the same crap pattern?  Pattern change has to come first. Then maybe we get an event. Whether that is 5/10/15 days away you can’t force a threat where there isn’t one.  If you keep latching on to every lottery ticket level prayer from day 8 in this awful pattern you will continue to be let down and frustrated. Maybe something does hit on one of these crazy long shot setups that require 15 moving parts to all go our way but I bet if it does it will be something not resolved until short range and it pops up closer in. We are not getting some long range trackable event in this pattern. 

I got ya. my comment was slightly tounge-in-cheek--not a criticism (sorry it came off that way). It was more of a "that's a long way to go to see if the positive trends will hold", lol) But I get how you're looking at things...and have in turn started to pay more attention to what you and others have been saying about the overall pattern, long wave tracking (or lack thereof), etc.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

CPC 3-4 week outlook is out.  Gradual improvement from two weeks ago when the CPC gave us a 70% chance of above normal temperatures and last week when it put the chances at 50-55%.  However, as you can see below, this is  not a snowy look.  Notably, the CPC does not venture a guess on temperatures or precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic

MJO a non-player

+NAO continues with transient cold air intrusions likely

Pacific flow common

SE ridge maintained

Ridging south of Aleutian Islands

 

 

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WB 12Z EPS...very quiet through February in the snow maps.  Only 2 of 50 Members show anything.  Looks like we will be going into the 4th quarter with no time outs left (March.)

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10 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Overnight GEFS pretty much showed what we don't want to see as we move into our possible favorable period. Below are the run over run changes that we saw and you can see that it became aggressive with dumping energy into the SW. Thus we see the response of the ridging going to town in the east.

gfsswdump.gif.dc6f460b3ddc071a2c48449ae21ec18c.gif

 

Now for comparison sake here was the previous run. Here we see a split flow in the West (circle) creating basically a northern +PNA over-cutting a weakness (trough) in the SW. That's a good look for possibilities in the east. As you can see the SS dips in the west and we see it creating ridging to its east. But this ridging is muted and shifted to the west (good look for possibly pumping southern moisture into any developing system). The differences we are seeing with that ridging can be attributed to what we see with the NS. The NS in the below example is for the most part bypassing the SW weakness and moving eastward (follow the flow lines) creating push back to any ridging as it carves out the trough in the East. Now if you compare that to the above example we are seeing the NS (follow the flow lines) is more aggressive with the SW dump creating a full latitude trough. In response we are seeing full latitude ridging in the east. 

1807203774_northernpna.gif.61f323ccb864dd442a67938e932a0a20.gif

 

Now the first look just isn't a winning looking. It just isn't. Sure we could always luck into something. But it would be highly doubtful. Now we really need to see the NS for the most part bypass the SW. Otherwise we would be highly dependent on seeing very strong blocking up top to counter and push back against the desire for the pattern to pump up strong heights/ridging in the east. 

Now the models have been teasing back and forth with what they want to do as far as dumping energy in the SW. This just happened to be a run that went to the Dark Side. Who's to say that it won't flip right back come the 06Z run. So at this point I am not overly concerned. But if we start seeing this dump run after run on the various models....

I love the thoughts (and arrows) but it ain’t gonna progress that way brotha. Submit to the snowless winter of 19-20’

9 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Remember the PNA ridge? I pointed this out the other day on both the GEFS and GEPS- although they both were attempting to build a +PNA on the means, the tendency for h5 heights to quickly build back further west was also notable. Well, look at the latest runs. This should hardly come as a shock lol. I am not a believer in the HL region becoming favorable and mitigating the crappy Pacific. The +AO/NAO has been very stable, and although it may relax a bit, not sure it will be enough to make a meaningful difference. The most notable ridging "up top" on the GEFS in the LR is over central Canada/Hudson Bay. Been there this winter.

Yea, too many stable features that models want to breakdown and end of runs. Never happens. Still surprised anyone I even trying to forecast beyond 4-5 days this year

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

0z EPS finally came out on WB.  Nothing to report through the end of February....only hope appears to be that the EPO will go neutral to negative by the end of the month to give us a chance in March until Spring arrives.  My expectations are low.  There are the 10 percent chances here and there before the end of the month but unless I see the probs. going over 50% for a time period under 10 days , no more prob. maps from me.  (I hear the alleluia chorus).

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-1638400.png

This.

It’s the truth. Nothing to report and it will be that way. It’s not negative. It’s weather

6 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Most on here realize the futility we have gone through this year. We get it. So why state the obvious (being failure) on something posted that actually has somewhat of a positive spin? All this negativity gets old, hell it has been old for several years now. Just saying.

Eta: you know, if you would have just added a reason to why the map was bs, any reasonable reason, then I would have been fine with it. But seeing as you didn't it becomes nothing more then just another post of the multitude we see these days that add no value except to add to the clutter and perpetuate the misery we see in here.

You’re always the optimist. And the pessimists are the pessimists. We need both to have a good vibe. And with winter weather as poopy as it has been this year we need the fatalism for a little levity in the thread

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I think some are managing emotions. They would rather not expect anything and resign themselves to crap then get their hopes up to repeatedly be let down. Thing is they don’t need others agreement to manage their own emotions.

As for me I’m just a realist. I’ve tried to mix in some positive spins at times but there really hasn’t ever been anything more than Hail Mary type long shots all year.  While there were some snows in a +AO regime none featured this pac look. On top of that none featured the +4 stdv type AO we’ve been dealing with.  A quick glance at the h5 loop everyday is all it takes to quickly ascertain how hopeless it’s been most of the time. 

It’s emotional. But more so, the optimists are still grasping at straws. It’s over man. It’s just over. With a super positive AO and reloading WPAC ridging here and there, it’s almost March. It’s fun to analyze but this winter is not really winter lol

2 hours ago, Deer Whisperer said:

I’ll go with p01 to verify 

That is 100% correct

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

GEFS did not trend the way we want for the day 8 super long shot but it does do what I said I wanted to see in the long range.  Followed the progression I highlighted on the EPS earlier.

We need to get that ridge centered back in central Canada or west of Hudson Bay would be ideal...

GEFS1.thumb.png.043ee670268e19dee34d223178299542.png

GEFS strongly indicates the cutter idea day 11-12 but then sets up a look we can work with at the end.

GEFS2.thumb.png.c099d8e6564ee0cbd1de5791e46801b0.png

Being that far out there is obviously disagreement on exactly where the waves will be and that is why we see that huge spread out trough...but the key features are the ridge centered west of Hudson Bay in Canada and the strong indications of a 50/50 type feature to our northeast.  Then we just need to see how the timing works out with whatever waves eject out of the west in that look.  

Again...assuming the look is real...but another run with that look so I guess odds continue to increase that MAYBE this isnt a mirage if we keep seeing it move closer in time.  

Huge surprise 

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Man, without that caution, I would have gotten excited and expected a foot of  snow for sure. 

Lol

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

GEPS was a nice run. Caved to the idea of a Canada ridge and cutting a trough under into the east. It’s likelt transient and it’s reloading the super + AO at the end but it would create a good window first. This temp profile works in early March. 

AFBA4FC6-FB49-4AB4-8B3E-E93ABD24A97F.thumb.png.b495fd4fa7e3a9f23f6b930b0f29097d.png

I am trying to be positive and at this point I’m just hunting for a look that could produce one storm.  That’s all. 

So far the possibility of a workable look to start March hasn’t collapsed....yet 

It’s 384 man. Step back from the ledge!!

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

What do you want me to do about the fact the next 10 days (at least) we are still stuck in the same crap pattern?  Pattern change has to come first. Then maybe we get an event. Whether that is 5/10/15 days away you can’t force a threat where there isn’t one.  If you keep latching on to every lottery ticket level prayer from day 8 in this awful pattern you will continue to be let down and frustrated. Maybe something does hit on one of these crazy long shot setups that require 15 moving parts to all go our way but I bet if it does it will be something not resolved until short range and it pops up closer in. We are not getting some long range trackable event in this pattern. 

Y’all should do what I’ve done since mid January:

Mt baker

Jackson Hole

Stowe Vt

Currently Innsbruck, Austria as I type

Go to the snow. It’s around just not in dc 

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15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z EPS.....still holding serve on the EPO going negative toward the end of the month. 

ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg-epo-box-1681600.png

Not really what I would consider a true(or completely useful) -EPO. That stubborn trough is still there. Even so, there would be "some" decent cold air available. The ridge in western/central Canada along with the TPV location to the east would mix in some Polar air, even if the somewhat weakened(hopefully) AK trough is still pumping in some Pac air. Also, given its modeled location, that air would be colder than if it was further south and stronger. One thing I will continue to say- all these advertised looks in the LR, although different and potentially somewhat better, are very fragile. Could still be a mirage and/or easily revert to the same old shit pattern, until proven otherwise.

1582977600-1CXJherLDdc.png

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the 12z eps was an epic disaster....no snow anywhere near us.....cant even drive to Davis WV to see snow

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Just now, Ji said:

the 12z eps was an epic disaster....no snow anywhere near us.....cant even drive to Davis WV to see snow

But the h5 look is... "good".

Have faith man.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

But the h5 look is... "good".

Have faith man.

lol its no where need good enough for March...we are not scoring in march without some kind of HL blocking

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol its no where need good enough for March...we are not scoring in march without some kind of HL blocking

A Hudson Bay ridge could work tho!. At least we might be able to live vicariously through the northern Carroll county folks. :P 

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If SC were to out-snow us this year...mercy. I hope we are repair for this in early March or next year.

Brutal, and the jackpot area moves south

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7 minutes ago, broken024 said:

We dancin down here boys

Ha!  You should be.  This is a rare flower in the middle of a manure pile of a winter.  Pluck that bitch! 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ha!  You should be.  This is a rare flower in the middle of a manure pile of a winter.  Pluck that bitch! 

We getting trolled by southeast forum over snow

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Just now, Solution Man said:

We getting trolled by southeast forum over snow

How did we get here.  I hope it hit SC and NC just to see the epic meltdowns..me included...and they deserve some winter.  

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11 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Not sure which has been worse...this crappy winter or Maestro’s post that add no value to this thread

If that's your opinion, take it up with the moderators. And there's also an ignore button too. (And I find it interesting that you singled just me out for this...)

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