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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

I will go with your experience and wisdom on this. Yet another snoozer in the Syracuse area?

I am again surprised by how much more snow we still have on the ground here though compared to the city and areas closer to it though.

Yeah, apart from model wobbles this looks like 3 or 4" of snow over a few days. My snow depth is still 6-7" after a ferocious couple of melting days.  The LES is a red herring here as once it starts up on the Tug it's hard to dislodge it.  Maybe a few hours of snow as it pushes south, falls of the lake and dies.  Meh.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

Yeah, apart from model wobbles this looks like 3 or 4" of snow over a few days. My snow depth is still 6-7" after a ferocious couple of melting days.  The LES is a red herring here as once it starts up on the Tug it's hard to dislodge it.  Maybe a few hours of snow as it pushes south, falls of the lake and dies.  Meh.

So I am heading back to PA to get some things from my parents, as my wife and I are moving into a new place in the Lysander area. Guess when I am leaving? Friday evening through Saturday afternoon...right when the best chances are for LES here. Get your shovel ready...LOL

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I can just imagine what some of these SR models are gonna show lol 

3k Nam basically has 14-24" from me to the tug just by 1am Friday, NWS has 90% pops through Saturday afternoon..

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11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I can just imagine what some of these SR models are gonna show lol 

3k Nam basically has 14-24" from me to the tug just by 1am Friday, NWS has 90% pops through Saturday afternoon..

And best snows for us look to be Friday as the band sits on us.  Keeping my fingers crossed!

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8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Ouch for Roc

Same here in SYR...KBGM hasn't even pulled the trigger for Northern Oneida county yet, and they look to be assured Warning snows.  They're being patient.  Probably will post a Watch  later this eve or tomorrow morning more likely for that area.

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SREF's continue to creep up for SYR.  Not a buyer but the Mean (after removing 2 of the anomalously highest members), is up to 8" thru 06Z Saturday, which is basically thru about midnight  Friday.  

SREF.png

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

SREF's continue to creep up for SYR.  Not a buyer but the Mean (after removing 2 of the anomalously highest members), is up to 8" thru 06Z Saturday, which is basically thru about midnight  Friday.  

SREF.png

Will we be surprised? Or disappointed? The Finger Lakes Fryer looks to be ruining the synoptic part.

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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Will we be surprised? Or disappointed? The Finger Lakes Fryer looks to be ruining the synoptic part.

Fryer?  Man this makes me laugh growing up in Monmouth County NJ!  I know I will lose this perspective eventually but I still have it!

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Will we be surprised? Or disappointed? The Finger Lakes Fryer looks to be ruining the synoptic part.

Dunno. My expectations are low but not zero...we have another day of model runs for more adjustments. 

I'm going snowshoeing up on the Tug Saturday...a friend and his brother from Philly. That guy is in for a shock. Heh heh.

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Dunno. My expectations are low but not zero...we have another day of model runs for more adjustments. 

I'm going snowshoeing up on the Tug Saturday...a friend and his brother from Philly. That guy is in for a shock. Heh heh.

There's a chance that the depth of snow on the tug will be more combined than he's seen in 4 seasons...

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This animal is still trending S&E and there is plenty of time for 75-100 mile jog to the SE and we'll all be smiling. This is gonna be a long drawn event where we end up with over 15" but bbn itll take it days to do so, lol!

I still dont think these models know exactly what kind of phase we got here cause it a very complicated Upper LVL event so this too may have lots of surprises up its sleeve so we wait.

One thing that is certain is that its gonna rain something fierce come tomorrow afternoon before it starts to attempt to change over so....

All in all, I may be an optimist but I think we squeeze out at least a foot but if things line up a bit better then we can be talking about a lot more so we'll see real soon!

Good Luck all!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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17 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Fryer?  Man this makes me laugh growing up in Monmouth County NJ!  I know I will lose this perspective eventually but I still have it!

Hah. I grew up in Lancaster County, PA...very similar climate to yours in NJ. I am traumatized for life. :P

 

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20 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Dunno. My expectations are low but not zero...we have another day of model runs for more adjustments. 

I'm going snowshoeing up on the Tug Saturday...a friend and his brother from Philly. That guy is in for a shock. Heh heh.

Considering they haven't even had an inch there this winter....they will see 30 to 50 times more snow than they have all winter!

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11 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

This animal is still trending S&E and there is plenty of time for 75-100 mile jog to the SE and we'll all be smiling. This is gonna be a long drawn event where we end up with over 15" but bbn itll take it days to do so, lol!

I still dont think these models know exactly what kind of phase we got here cause it a very complicated Upper LVL event so this too may have lots of surprises up its sleeve so we wait.

One thing that is certain is that its gonna rain something fierce come tomorrow afternoon before it starts to attempt to change over so....

All in all, I may be an optimist but I think we squeeze out at least a foot but if things line up a bit better then we can be talking about a lot more so we'll see real soon!

Good Luck all!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I think there will be adjustments right up until go time!

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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hah. I grew up in Lancaster County, PA...very similar climate to yours in NJ. I am traumatized for life. :P

 

Monmouth county has actually been a little JP zone (relatively speaking)  the last decade or so..Keep in mind LT average for Freehold NJ is 23"..They can get some fierce bands off the Atlantic and be just inland enough to be snow.. The last two years have been terrible though. 

2009 - 2010, 74.2"               2010 - 2011, 61.1"  

2011 - 2012: 8.5"               2012 - 2013: 38.2”               2013 - 2014: 73.3" 
2014 - 2015: 54"                2015 - 2016: 40.9"              2016 - 2017: 28.7" 

2017 - 2018: 62.9”. 

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4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Monmouth county has actually been a little JP zone (relatively speaking)  the last decade or so..Keep in mind LT average for Freehold NJ is 23"..They can get some fierce bands off the Atlantic and be just inland enough to be snow.. The last two years have been terrible though. 

2009 - 2010, 74.2"               2010 - 2011, 61.1"  

2011 - 2012: 8.5"               2012 - 2013: 38.2”               2013 - 2014: 73.3" 
2014 - 2015: 54"                2015 - 2016: 40.9"              2016 - 2017: 28.7" 

2017 - 2018: 62.9”. 

Yeah. After I left.
 

What a kick in the baguettes. 
 

EDIT: I was there for the Boxing Day Blizzard visiting my parents for Christmas (they’re still there) and it was my second favorite storm behind 1996. 

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33 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Nice to see a WNY and ON special for once. 

I'm telling you it's like what I've read about the great leap year storm of February 1984. Not sure if anyone here is old enough to remember it - I was 3 going on 4.

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Just now, 96blizz said:

Yeah. After I left.
 

What a kick in the baguettes. 

Oh, so YOU and I are at fault for destroying the snow climatology of Central NY! Some of the guilt has now lifted.

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