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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Well it's never good to be in the bullseye this far out lol No way the European stays the same over the next 7 days.. Hopefully it comes backs to this idea if it losses it. :weenie:

I just passed 70" for the season!

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Temps marginal on the Euro for next week's main storm but we've been dealing with that all season.    Rather have the Euro on our side than GooFuS.  Notably, Euro turns it pretty cold after next Thursdays storm, for several days....

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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Another area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains
as the northern jet dives southeast across the Rockies and phasing
of the northern and southern jets cause the surface low to form.
This northern jet diving south and strengthening the upper and mid
level trough will also bring colder Canadian air south into the
lower 48 states and eventually to the Northeast. The area of low
pressure will continue to strengthen as it tracks toward the
northeast. Guidance is in fairly good agreement with the track and
timing of the system, with the low tracking over the area from
Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon and lake
enhancement/effect after the system passes to the northeast. Where
guidance is not in agreement is the strength of the system over the
region, the GFS brings the pressure down to 974 mb over the Saint
Lawrence Valley and the ECMWF down to 995 mb for the same location.
Precipitation type will be dependent on temperature which guidance
is still currently spread on, but as of this writing, snow looks
like the most likely p-type.

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Yeah I'm bored lol

Once it gets passed our latitude it should be in no hurry, which would be a nice change for once lol If these features actually exist lol

 

389973046_Screenshot_20200220-1800382.pn

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs with another rain-snow bomb... Very similar track as 12z, not as good verbatim but who cares lol

You're not kidding either.  The GFS really has a knack for deepening storms to virtually impossible levels this winter.  The 12z run had it dropping 19mb in 12 hours.  

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Leaving for the adirondacks tomorrow. Saturday morning we are going to sunrise hike cascade and porter. (Overnight hike) Then go out on the lake after to ice skate, then sunday we are gonna do another high peak. Looks like sunshine and 20s for the trip. Should be a fun couple of days! 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Leaving for the adirondacks tomorrow. Saturday morning we are going to sunrise hike cascade and porter. (Overnight hike) Then go out on the lake after to ice skate, then sunday we are gonna do another high peak. Looks like sunshine and 20s for the trip. Should be a fun couple of days! 

I think you got a really nice weekend all things considered.  High Peaks snowpack is currently at a seasonal high.  Weather this weekend looks simply perfect for hiking.  Sunny skies, light winds, moderate temps.  As long as the snow isnt too exhausting you should be able to really cover some ground.  Get some good pics!

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Top analog is Feb 13-16 2007

After a little research

We had a 12-18" snowfall and then this LES event

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=M

This relatively modest event came on the heels of the season's most 
widespread synoptic event on 13-14 February which dropped a solid 12 
to 18 inches across most of the region, especially the Finger Lakes 
and Genesee Valley. A northwest flow followed this storm and set up 
some narrow but intense bands from far northeast Wayne County into 
Oswego County. The activity weakened and sheared out by mid morning 
of 16th as wind fields became unfavorable.

 

image.png.39ec27a8d6caf8af33180e1bd6009058.png

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A little light lake effect still going on. Hopefully it continues so I can log 0.1" snow instead of T.  We'll get to 100" the hard way if we have to. ;)

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26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Top analog is Feb 13-16 2007

After a little research

We had a 12-18" snowfall and then this LES event

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=M

This relatively modest event came on the heels of the season's most 
widespread synoptic event on 13-14 February which dropped a solid 12 
to 18 inches across most of the region, especially the Finger Lakes 
and Genesee Valley. A northwest flow followed this storm and set up 
some narrow but intense bands from far northeast Wayne County into 
Oswego County. The activity weakened and sheared out by mid morning 
of 16th as wind fields became unfavorable.

 

image.png.39ec27a8d6caf8af33180e1bd6009058.png

Feb 13-14 2007 was the famed VD 2.0 Snowstorm. Which was followed by a decent LES or hybrid LES event as I recall. 

Notably, IIRC, the infamous 100" of snow in a week in Oswego and Jefferson counties was a week or so prior to this storm...which was set up by early winter mild conditions keeping lake temps Above Normal for Feb.

I'll eat sh*t and bark at the moon if we pull that off this winter.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

Feb 13-14 2007 was the famed VD 2.0 Snowstorm. Which was followed by a decent LES or hybrid LES event as I recall. 

Notably, IIRC, the infamous 100" of snow in a week in Oswego and Jefferson counties was a week or so prior to this storm...which was set up by early winter mild conditions.

I'll eat sh*t and bark at the moon if we pull that off this winter.

We do not have the cold air anywhere near us to get that kind of LES, but synoptic has a possibility. That next storm is going to be pretty strong. I like Rochester to Syracuse as usually for a storm track like this. Still way to early to even begin tracks yet though. Doesn't hit for a week.

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We do not have the cold air anywhere near us to get that kind of LES, but synoptic has a possibility. That next storm is going to be pretty strong. I like Rochester to Syracuse as usually for a storm track like this. Still way to early to even begin tracks yet though. Doesn't hit for a week.

Agree with all of that although the 12Z Euro had some quite cold air over the eastern US following next weeks storm.  And not a one and done for duration...frankly we probably stand a better chance of decent LES outbreaks than we do synoptic...if the mean storm track remains persistent.

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I can't believe I'm doing this but 00Z Canadian has a beastly looking snowstorm next week 6-7 days out.  Its evolution at this point looks a little more credible than GFS FWIW.  Something we will undoubtedly be getting sucked into tracking soon. I just hope that if its gonna fail, it shows its hand early (like this weekend)

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I should add that it's pretty good for wny (kbuf) verbatim and parts of eastern L Ontario into the dacks. Clown map is actually pretty similar to the gfs, which will look different in a few hours..lol

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