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7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

What a nice surprise! I immediately went for a walk as soon as I looked out the window. Working our way towards an inch already here in the No. Onon. area.

Big, wet flakes covering everything. 31.5 degrees. Roads are extremely slippery. Even if it changes to rain, the roads will be ugly for the morning commute.

Hoping to wake up to a big surprise!

Yeah I forgot there was some snow in forecast. Just figured it was a non event until I went outside...close to an inch down.

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These are daytime temps on Friday lol

 

sfct.us_ne (40).png

High pressure will then build
across the region Friday night, which should provide good
radiational cooling for most areas. If this pans out, temperatures
should easily drop to near zero south of Lake Ontario, with lows 10
to 20 below across the North Country. The coldest high temperature
in Buffalo so far this season is 20 (Jan 17) and the coldest low is
10 (Dec 19). At Rochester the coldest high is 18 (Jan 17) and low is
5 (Jan 20).
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19 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

BW you're pretty much the guy when it comes to historical facts about our winters...so I've got one for you...what is the longest timeframe the AO has been positive in WNY weather? This has to be close.

We have our answer 

The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91). #AO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

36ABC490-1970-4E44-B52C-ACA6D88F8917.png

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18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We have our answer 

The most recently observed Arctic Oscillation is the highest daily value in our historical record (6.34), breaking the past record from February 26th, 1990 (5.91). #AO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

36ABC490-1970-4E44-B52C-ACA6D88F8917.png

So that's what a can of whoop ass feels like...son you just opened a whole case of whoop ass...

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As incredible as that level of AO is, I think it's equally incredible that we weren't torching really at any point during the time frame. Yes is was above average but it's been in the 60's and 70's in January in buffalo and I think we approached 60 once in the last month. Still an incredible number from normal none the less

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6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

As incredible as that level of AO is, I think it's equally incredible that we weren't torching really at any point during the time frame. Yes is was above average but it's been in the 60's and 70's in January in buffalo and I think we approached 60 once in the last month. Still an incredible number from normal none the less

Image result for arctic osillation graph

Image result for arctic osillation graph

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The impactful weather of the period will be Wednesday night through
Thursday night when an accumulating snowfall is likely. Model
guidance is in considerably better agreement than previous runs, but
there are still differences in QPF, precipitation type, and timing.
A broad area of low pressure associated with a southern branch
shortwave will track from Tennessee, and then across Pennsylvania
Wednesday night before exiting across the Gulf of Maine on Thursday.
00Z runs of the NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM continue the trend of not phasing
this low with the northern branch as it moves by our area. This
would keep the track to our south and leave it just cold enough to
support snow across most of the cwa. The only exception is the
western Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley where precipitation
will probably mix with rain at times Wednesday night before colder
air moves in behind the low Thursday morning.

The second part of this event will come with the passage of the
northern branch cold/arctic front around Thursday evening. There is
not as good model agreement with this feature, with the 00Z ECMWF
slower and weaker with the boundary than the GFS/GGEM. Either way,
temperatures aloft will be plenty cold enough to support a lake
response which will be enhanced by moisture from a shortwave which
will accompany its passage. There may be a break in the snow during
the day Thursday, but expect this will quickly be followed by a
burst of snow with this front. It will be MUCH colder behind this
front with temperatures falling into the single digits most areas
Thursday night, with below zero readings across the North Country.
The rapid drop in temperatures may pose a risk for a flash freeze of
any standing water on roads or sidewalks. This also will support
higher/fluffier snow ratios, and may be more impactful than the
first round of synoptic snows. Combined, these are likely to bring
at least several inches of snow to most locations. There is
potential for more, especially across higher terrain in Western
Southern Tier. Will continue to highlight this potential in the HWO,
although model differences suggests its too early to get too
specific with snow amounts.
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