• Member Statistics

    15,777
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mansour
    Newest Member
    mansour
    Joined
Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

6 days is an eternity in the forecasting world.  At least something to track. 

Waiting on the EURO - Dr. NO....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

here is the 12Z ICON - timing is faster and weaker but still basically the same track as the GFS and CMC

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NEG NAO said:

here is the 12Z ICON - timing is faster and weaker but still basically the same track as the GFS and CMC

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_45.png

ICON was classic benchmark. CMC coastal hugger, GFS just SE benchmark. You are right tho, all pretty similar. pretty good agreement at the development of a potent coastal storm this far out. Encouraging! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active  with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active  with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD.

the best place for the MJO is the COD in this type of pattern if you want an east coast snowstorm...……...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has another big storm near the 7th. The pattern looks active  with the ridge finally in the west. The MJO also looks to stall in the COD.

Big storm … yeah. It's Gulf Coast evolution is straight out of an ice age.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The storm has been on the charts for a while so it's definitely legit. But there's no room for error.

The track has to be perfect and the storm has to bomb out because the antecedent airmass is garbage. 

I'd give it a 10% chance for us to score.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RDRY said:

Big storm … yeah. It's Gulf Coast evolution is straight out of an ice age.

 

58 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Yeh blizzard into Louisiana. Nuts

GFS gave Jacksonville a major blizzard in December, its a joke of a model. 

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Wave spacing and the vortex killing the ridge out west on the euro. This doesn’t allow the northern stream to dive in. So the southern stream has to do it all on its own in a meh airmass. The ridge is just not as sharp as we need on the euro. 

It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said:

That is good to hear euro..not what it used to be ..

Sorry will have to disagree with you on that one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said:

euro..not what it used to be ..many other models have storm ..so i say tons of tracking ahead.

It has the highest scores of any model. But sure, whatever you say. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It has the highest scores of any model. But sure, whatever you say. 

Yes but it has sucked this winter. You cant deny it. Remember the past storms where it had alot of snow for our area ?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy 

Clear bias of the euro  unless they fixed it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro still might have the highest verification but it is a lot less consistent. It flip flops more than it used to it seems. Not saying it's wrong but it doesn't seem as consistent from run to run anymore. Maybe it's the pattern it's having issues with.

Sent from my GM1925 using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It also takes longer for the euro to eject the sw energy 

IIRC the old euro had a bias of hanging the sw back too long, only to correct later?  Seems like I remember that.

this storm has that sort of back and forth modeling we saw many times in the snowy years.  Probably won’t play out the same way:  gfs picks up on something early, euro agrees, then they both waver with the euro out underneath due to slow eject.  Then wham a nice euro run and everything else catches up.  Would be fun to track like the old days.

 

Edit just snow snow88 post.  Yeah...but I think the model has a new set of issues nowadays...i.e. it’s generally more erratic

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Continue improvements with more of a sustained cold pattern on the eps/gefs/geps for the first week of February. I’m sure many will melt when the cutter comes that brings the cold out of the west. The look between the 5th and 8th is really nice. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of uncertainty with low location on the eps. Only consistent is snow mean is less then 1 inch for the coast. The majority of the members are inland hits. 

E7BB2E3D-5C47-443F-ABB4-7B3A517425D9.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Yes but it has sucked this winter. You cant deny it. Remember the past storms where it had alot of snow for our area ?

Ok Tony. Which model has a higher verification score? It gets really old when the board is hijacked by people like yourself who dismiss a model simply because they dont like what it shows. When the GFS shows a solution you dont like you call it the "Goofus". 

In any event, the Euro is an improved look from prior runs, but does not show a storm for our area. This should temper expectations for the time being. 

 

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lots of uncertainty with low location on the eps. Only consistent is snow mean is less then 1 inch for the coast. The majority of the members are inland hits. 

E7BB2E3D-5C47-443F-ABB4-7B3A517425D9.png

I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I doubt next weekends storm is going to be a cutter

I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think this will have a sharp ridge out west to turn the corner for a inland runner. But the airmass is bleh for the coast. The eps idv are either snowy hits for the interior or sne. 

this is cold enough

gfs_T850_us_27.pngecmwf_T850_us_8.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.