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January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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it also changes around a lot if you use an old model run but yeah, amounts were cut

 

GEFS also trended hard toward the OP slashing amounts with lots of clunkers

Didn’t really cut amounts much. More so lost the snow from overnight, prior.

 

Nothing is trending towards the GFS. tth agin here.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The horror that the R/S line ended up a county further northwest than expected.


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But this kind of trend has occurred several times this year, so it would be fair to predict lower amounts if you live along the lake like Alek.  Heck much of Milwaukee County was mix/rain overnight.  UHI + warm lake = lethal combo against snow.

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16 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:


But this kind of trend has occurred several times this year, so it would be fair to predict lower amounts if you live along the lake like Alek.  Heck much of Milwaukee County was mix/rain overnight.  UHI + warm lake = lethal combo against snow.

giphy.gif

wasn't even close, torching at 37 here already

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17 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:


But this kind of trend has occurred several times this year, so it would be fair to predict lower amounts if you live along the lake like Alek.  Heck much of Milwaukee County was mix/rain overnight.  UHI + warm lake = lethal combo against snow.

lol our drizzle had no chance of snow

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But this kind of trend has occurred several times this year, so it would be fair to predict lower amounts if you live along the lake like Alek.  Heck much of Milwaukee County was mix/rain overnight.  UHI + warm lake = lethal combo against snow.

The lake had no affect on things.


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Hard to have high confidence in the details going into tonight.  The dry slot seems to have gotten farther north than progged a couple days ago, which has allowed temps to get a bit warmer farther north.  This may cause a bit of a delay in flipping to snow or at least getting temps down toward freezing.  The warmest models still do seem to be out to lunch for later though.

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Somebody must be running a heater lakeside.  This is like an 8-10 degree rise in the past few days, all while air temps have been in the 30s or colder.

SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
931 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES...

CHICAGO SHORE..........41

CHICAGO CRIB..........40
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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Somebody must be running a heater lakeside.  This is like an 8-10 degree rise in the past few days, all while air temps have been in the 30s or colder.


SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
931 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES...

CHICAGO SHORE..........41

CHICAGO CRIB..........40

I've seen enough Pierce Brosnon movies to know where this is going https://www.chicagotribune.com/midwest/ct-lake-erie-earthquake-20191208-xfzanedw6zgujcz57j3dntnpmm-story.html

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5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I'm surprised how quiet EC is.  Not even a SWS for east-central Ontario.  I guess they think models are a degree or so too cold at the sfc.

Here, I think a snowfall storm total at YYZ of 2.0" is your o/u line.

EC just issued a rainfall warning for us. Gonna be a soaker tonight. 

As for snow, it all comes down to sfc temps. I think areas near the lake will get next to nothing. Both 12z NAM 3km and HRDPS have ~2.0" for YYZ. HRRR has nothing. What do you think? 

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