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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs just doubled down on the colder solution lol

Yes it's far away but the Euro has been following the GFS all winter.

No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change. 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change. 

Exactly

 

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48 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change. 

It's a pretty classic setup a 1047 MB high pressure is tough to move out in mid January. I don't think the models are going to have a tough time with this one still have about 48 hours before the shortwave gets into better sampling area off the northwest coast. Also the G EFS wants to transfer the low south of us which could keep precipitation more on the Frozen side even down to the coast but we shall see

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The next 8 days are averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is +10.0[42.6].         Should be +8.0[40.4] by the 21st.

41* here at 6am.      45* by 10am.   50* by 1pm.     48* at 2pm.      48* still at 3pm.

For the 18th., the putative snow amounts are:  GFS 6", EURO 5", CMC 3".

GFS is back AN 1/24---1/28 at a measly +1.     Was showing way BN a day ago.    What happened?

Here our only significant precipitation event (18th) coincides with a rise in the T and THK.      I note that a few posts beyond, someone is already singing the praises of Feb.

2020011300_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGRDespite this, from the 06Z GFS we get that the period 17th---29th will  average  23degs., or 9degs. BN!       If you believe this run,  the MTD will be just  +1.8 by the 30th.    This better show up in subsequent charts like the one here.

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7 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Dutchess County is nothing like adirondack park climo wise but it's also nothing like NYC. NYC is the absolute worst part in the state and really in the entire region for snow due to the ocean influence plus urban heating influence (places to the west and even in recent winters east of the city do better)   

Never did I say that Adirondack Park climate was like NYC or even Dutchess County. Just reporting an observation. In fact the post is implicit that it isn't. NYC is not the worst place for snow in the region either; parts of it aren't, parts of it are ok. The coastal regions aren't, but the Bronx and even parts of SI sometimes do better than the rest of the city.

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We have made it to 70 and above for each winter month since 2015.  Top 5 warmest temperatures in December and January. A new record warmest in February at 80 degrees.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1998 76 0
2 2001 74 0
3 2006 72 0
- 1982 72 0
- 1946 72 0
4 2015 71 0
- 2013 71 0
- 1984 71 0
5 1978 70 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1950 74 0
2 2007 72 0
3 2020 70 19
- 2002 70 0
- 1998 70 0
- 1932 70 0
4 1974 69 0
5 2000 68 0
- 1967 68 0
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2018 80 0
2 1949 76 0
3 2017 74 0
- 1997 74 0
- 1954 74 0
4 1985 73 0
5 2011 71 0

 

 

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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of a warmer than normal January.

 

 

Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis.

However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal?

Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint.  Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10?

 

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1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I suppose it's all relative.

Much colder today than this past freak of a weekend but still running about 10 degrees above normal today.

feels frigid out there at 38 degrees.   You know winter's been bad when that's the case.   Let's hope the weekend system works out.

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21 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Don, always enjoy your posts and analysis.

However, can you elaborate on the method by which you determined a 76% probability of finishing above normal?

Seems way too low, considering we'll be roughly +10 at month's midpoint.  Is there really a 24% chance of the back half of the month having a departure <-10?

 

Dan,

I plug in scenarios that include record values, which leads to a higher variance/lower z-value. The percentage is conservative, but this approach takes out some of the noise when model runs vary widely and when there's a lot of time left in a given month.

However, I am looking at an alternative with somewhat relaxed assumptions that might be more realistic in terms of quantifying things. For example, using the current and forecast temperatures through January 15, January 16-31 would need to average just under 23.0° to have a normal outcome. Since 1869, 9% of NYC's cases met that standard. The alternative approach shows about a 14% probability (the one I'm using above shows a 23% probability with the 0z guidance).

Also, with the ongoing warming, even the historic probabilities may be high relative to what's realistic today.

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I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 12
Missing Count
1 2007-01-12 45.2 0
2 2020-01-12 42.9 0
3 2016-01-12 42.4 0
4 1983-01-12 42.2 0
5 2006-01-12 42.1 0
- 1998-01-12 42.1 0
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2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is +10.0[42.6].         Should be +8.0[40.4] by the 21st.

41* here at 6am.

For the 18th., the putative snow amounts are:  GFS 6", EURO 5", CMC 3".

GFS is back AN 1/24---1/28 at a measly +1.     Was showing way BN a day ago.    What happened?

I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 12
Missing Count
1 2007-01-12 45.2 0
2 2020-01-12 42.9 0
3 2016-01-12 42.4 0
4 1983-01-12 42.2 0
5 2006-01-12 42.1 0
- 1998-01-12 42.1 0

I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed.    Amazing

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19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Anyone with more knowledge than an average weenie like me?! Is there a way saturdays storm could turn into a full blown coastal snowstorm?

Novice here also but I believe the answer you are looking for is YES but that would also depend on your definition of a "full blown coastal snowstorm ".It appears to me that right now a few inches are on the table but I think with 5 days to go and so much uncertainty the entire buffet from rain- ice or snow even possibly is currently on the table

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We can clearly see the MJO moving into p7 and then p8.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

 

 p7 alone in Jan gives you this.

 

960975240_JanuaryPhase7MJOcompositeNhem500mb.png.34b5381b05bce74c824e267818e3b1eb.png

 

You all know what p 8 / 1 in Feb give you.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed.    Amazing

Big differences between what the forum and the general public consider to be a good winter. I guess the 15-16 and 16-17 winters would be considered a perfect compromise. Many of us got our 40 inch snowfall seasons. While the general public had their 40 degree winter with lower heating bills.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed.    Amazing

I didn't have to turn mine off, it didn't run on its own from Saturday morning until this morning on the downstairs zone, second floor zone didn't even call for heat this morning.  Folks talking about how cold it feels this morning, which is still 10-12 above average, and already freaking out about this weekend.  So yeah, what a good winter is is certainly relative.  

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2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Anyone with more knowledge than an average weenie like me?! Is there a way saturdays storm could turn into a full blown coastal snowstorm?

The 6Z GFS is close to this depiction although the surface temps are warm at the immediate coast which appears to be limiting totals

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Never did I say that Adirondack Park climate was like NYC or even Dutchess County. Just reporting an observation. In fact the post is implicit that it isn't. NYC is not the worst place for snow in the region either; parts of it aren't, parts of it are ok. The coastal regions aren't, but the Bronx and even parts of SI sometimes do better than the rest of the city.

Yea it depends where in the city but overall the city seems to generally do worse than all the regions around it. Yes parts of SI and parts of the Bronx are the ideal places in the city to get snow but overall the urban heating influence seems to limit accumulations in any kind of marginal events.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects.

I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. 

However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends. 

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As I have pointed out over the last week plus in here the CFS is leading the way and is now strongly into 8 as the hovmoller plots and vp200`s have been saying for 10 days now. 

 

CFSO_phase_full.gif

 

The GEFS take it one step further and goes into p1 

Which is where this is going.

 

That`s why the Jan 20 - Feb 20 call is alive and well

 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

 

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think the colder air delay now matches the MJO plot and delayed effects.

 

There is ZERO delay in what is coming.

 

Jan 20 was always the return date. 

 

If anything most are going to snow on the 19th , so the flip is on time. 

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we'll see stronger cold surges right as February begins. 

However you definitely don't need arctic air in Jan through mid Feb for it to snow. Early signs of the MJO curling into phase 8 as January ends. 

 

What do you think is happening between Jan 20 and Jan 31.

Have you looked at any 500 mb maps and temp anomalies ? 

 

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Don`t be shocked if there`s a KU event inside the timeline that I have outlined. 

 

Great flips are usually accompanied with one. 

 

 

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Gone is the garbage turn back into 4/5/6.

 

You will typically see the RIMM plots want to fade back to the base state in the 11-15 , so you use the hovmollers and vp 200 to see if it matches. 

 

This is wrong once again and will head into 8 and then 1.

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.gif

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26 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Don`t be shocked if there`s a KU event inside the timeline that I have outlined. 

 

Great flips are usually accompanied with one. 

 

 

Paul Good to see you in here posting once again!

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