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Hoosier

2019 Year in Review + Decade in Review

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7 minutes ago, dayton1996 said:

Snowlover2

Was that 2014 microburst the same one that gave me a ton of hail damage to my roof?  Anyways, back to Winter....

I remember enjoying the Winter of 2013/2014. Starting in December, we have multiple snow storms throughout.  Some forecast, a couple of misses, and a couple of surprises.

No this was an isolated microburst across the eastern half of Montgomery County from a cell that traveled south to north causing significant wind damage. It was June 23 to be exact. I'm assuming you are talking about the supercell that dropped 3" hail around Centerville/Miamisburg area and into SW Greene County. Thinking that was possibly in 2011 or 2012.

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It is interesting to ponder which event is more likely to happen again, Morch or a tornado outbreak like April 27, 2011.  I'd actually go with the tornado outbreak being more likely to repeat.  One, we have already seen an outbreak that is relatively comparable or even more impressive in metrics besides the total tornado count (talking about 4/3/74 of course).  The other thing is that tornado outbreaks are singular weather events.  I'd argue you need even more to go right to get such extreme warm departures in a month.


Eh the amount of things that went right for April 27th to occur was insane. The instability and shear overlapped was off the charts, and led to 34 separate long track tornadoes rated EF3 or higher and killed 316 people.

Also you can add in the whole outbreak as all 4 days had at least 40 tornadoes. March was an awesome anomaly, but that day was shocking because of its impact

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28 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

 


Eh the amount of things that went right for April 27th to occur was insane. The instability and shear overlapped was off the charts, and led to 34 separate long track tornadoes rated EF3 or higher and killed 316 people.

Also you can add in the whole outbreak as all 4 days had at least 40 tornadoes. March was an awesome anomaly, but that day was shocking because of its impact

 

That's true... as we know, if you change one thing on a severe wx day, it can knock it back from historic to something less than that.  That's why the high end days are uncommon and the super high end days are even more rare.  

Something to consider about Morch.  It was about a 10 day period of extreme warmth bookended with lesser positive departures.  If that period had fallen from, say, March 27 to April 5, would it have been quite the same?  The March departures wouldn't have been as ridiculous.  Unlike a tornado outbreak, we are slaves to the calendar when it comes to extreme monthly temp anomalies.

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The extreme warmth in Feb 2017 to me was as impressive, if not more impressive than Morch for this area.  At MLI 4 days in a row of 70+, with 5 out of 6 days in a row of 70+.  7 days that month of 69+ degrees.  A new all-time record high for the month was set as well as it hit 74 on the 19th.  There were 7 new record highs that month.

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On 12/30/2019 at 5:42 PM, nwohweather said:

 


Eh the amount of things that went right for April 27th to occur was insane. The instability and shear overlapped was off the charts, and led to 34 separate long track tornadoes rated EF3 or higher and killed 316 people.

Also you can add in the whole outbreak as all 4 days had at least 40 tornadoes. March was an awesome anomaly, but that day was shocking because of its impact

Yep, Days such as that are probably only a few times in a lifetime. 1974 obviously, 1884 Enigma Outbreak possibly,  Palm Sunday 1920, March 1932,  and  Palm Sunday 65 are the only ones off the top of my head that could compare. I'm sure some of those days in the late 1800s earlier 1900s had similar tornado numbers but as we know it was way harder to track them all then. Still 4/27 and 74 are in their own class

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Just a violent meh decade. I guess Detroit had some moments where they finally broke a 10" storm or something.

 

zzzzzzz.  outside of Morch

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On 12/29/2019 at 11:47 PM, RogueWaves said:

They put out a public twitter vote, I dont have twitter so couldnt vote, but the public was right there with me on their #1!!!

Top Ten Southeast Michigan Weather Events for the 2010s (Voted by the Public)

 

Place Event

1

Winter 2013-14 Cold and Snowy Winter (Harshest on record using the AWSSI Scale)
2 August 11, 2014 Metro Detroit Floods (Nearly $1.8 billion in damages, the most in damage for any weather event in the state's history)
3 January 29-February 1, 2019 Arctic Outbreak
4 March 8, 2017 High Wind (About 1 million homes and business without power in Lower Michigan)
5 2019 Record High Water Levels on the Great Lakes
6 December 21-22, 2013 Ice Storm (nearly 400,000 homes without power statewide from Grand Rapids to Flint to the Thumb)
7 February 1, 2015 Snowstorm (Detroit's third heaviest snowstorm)
8 March 15, 2012 Tornadoes including the EF3 Dexter Tornado
9 November 11, 2019 Veteran's Day Snowstorm
 

April 13-15, 2018 Ice Storm (500,000+ power outages

Top Ten Southeast Michigan Weather Events for the 2010s (Voted by NWS Detroit/Pontiac)

 

Place Event

1

August 11, 2014 Metro Detroit Floods (Nearly $1.8 billion in damages, the most in damage for any weather event in the state's History)
2 March 8, 2017 High Wind (About 1 million homes and business without power in Lower Michigan)
3 Winter 2013-14 Cold and Snowy Winter (Harshest on record using the AWSSI Scale)
4 2019 Record High Water Levels on the Great Lakes
5 March 2012 Heat Wave (greatest departure from average for any month in Southeast Michigan history)
6 March 15, 2012 Tornadoes including the EF3 Dexter Tornado
7 October 29-30, 2012 Hurricane Sandy Great Lakes Storm
8 February 2015 Cold (Top two or three coldest months on record for all three climate sites)
9 February 1, 2015 Snowstorm (Detroit's third heaviest snowstorm)
10 December 21-22, 2013 Ice Storm (nearly 400,000 homes without power statewide from Grand Rapids to Flint to the Thumb)

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9 hours ago, UMB WX said:

Just a violent meh decade. I guess Detroit had some moments where they finally broke a 10" storm or something.

 

zzzzzzz.  outside of Morch

Detroit never had trouble breaking 10", it was the 12" barrier lol. And yes, they did that with a 16.7" storm.

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Not surprisingly, the 2010s ended up as the snowiest decade on record for Detroit!

Average snowfall per decade:
1880s- 45.5”

1890s- 42.7”

1900s- 46.3”

1910s- 39.7”

1920s- 46.1”

1930s- 32.9”

1940s- 27.6”

1950s- 37.8”

1960s- 31.8”

1970s- 45.6”

1980s- 45.2”

1990s- 37.2”

2000s- 45.3”

2010s- 49.9”

 

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8 minutes ago, totsata said:

LOT's top 10 list of the 2010's based on Twitter and FB polls. 

https://www.weather.gov/lot/2010-2019_Top10WxEvents

Top 10 Weather Events of Decade.png

Nice top 10.  I'd flip the order on some of them if it were me.  Would definitely rank #6 and #7 higher.  The November 2013 outbreak would be farther down my list if we're strictly talking about impacts in the LOT cwa. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Nice top 10.  I'd flip the order on some of them if it were me.  Would definitely rank #6 and #7 higher.  The November 2013 outbreak would be farther down my list if we're strictly talking about impacts in the LOT cwa. 

Eh, hard to pick, as they are all high impact, but I personally would have had Morch at least second and bumped the two PVs down one notch.

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Eh, hard to pick, as they are all high impact, but I personally would have had Morch at least second and bumped the two PVs down one notch.

Agree on Morch. The most anomalous weather event on record should be 1 or 2. I think GHD is fine as #1 ultimately because it's the most intense blizzard for the area in modern history so it really stands out to people. As for #3, I'd still keep that as the entire 2013-14 winter because of its place among the coldest and snowiest on record (coldest Dec-March) period and should be at least #2 for snow if not for the ORD measuring debacle on 1/1/14.  

 

Would agree with summer 2012 being higher. GHD II we perhaps could've grouped it in with the extreme cold the rest of February. Also I'd have Rochelle ranked higher than 11/17/13 for tornado events in the CWA. Could make a case that 6/22/15 or 6/5/10 are more deserving to be in top 10 for the CWA, but I understand why it stands out to people because of the time of year and the Washington supercell. Finally, I'd swap out the April 2019 snowstorms for the April 17-18 2013 flooding, which was the worst flooding event of the 2010s for the CWA as a whole.

 

 

 

 

 

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If memory serves me correct, the November 2013 outbreak had 10 tornadoes in the LOT area, with 3 of those being EF2s.  
Definitely a rare event for November.  

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12 minutes ago, vortex said:

If memory serves me correct, the November 2013 outbreak had 10 tornadoes in the LOT area, with 3 of those being EF2s.  
Definitely a rare event for November.  

pretty good memory

13nov17tormap_updated.png.85cd2c4f8831cc0da5d538f63c637286.png

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MKX finally posted the top weather event of the last year and the last decade.

https://www.weather.gov/media/mkx/WCM/2019wisconsinevents.pdf

https://www.weather.gov/media/mkx/WCM/2010swisconsinevents.pdf

One thing to note is that they are for the entire state, not just the CWA. I agree with the lists for the most part, my only complaint would be the disappointing lack of the Dec,20,2012 blizzard that dumped like 20 inches in parts of the state. Other than that thing, they are pretty good lists.

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