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MAG5035

Central PA - Late Dec 2019/Jan 2020

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3 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Henry Margusity punted until late February this morning. Henry Margusity or not, a meteorologist punting until late February is basically bolting a coffin shut. 

DT punts every month. We are in the game the next few weeks regardless if anything works out or not.  Not like its warm. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

DT punts every month. We are in the game the next few weeks regardless if anything works out or not.  Not like its warm. 

Punting anything 6+ days out is idiotic, no matter what season. 

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12 minutes ago, canderson said:

Punting anything 6+ days out is idiotic, no matter what season. 

I think with temps you can punt much longer periods.  Storms yea they change every 6 hours.  If almost every bit of weather modeling shows warm temps for a two week period it is rare they are wrong big picture.  Seems the MA thread is excited about the next two weeks.  Almost like they are daring the HM's to punt. 

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19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Blizzard92?  It must have been one of those "technical a blizzard but only 2" of snow" blizzards or he lived somewhere else in 92.

Pretty sure he was born in 1992. He was a fetus when he had his Wunderground blog. 

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Just now, Atomixwx said:

Pretty sure he was born in 1992. He was a fetus when he had his Wunderground blog. 

I thought of that but was not sure someone would do something confusing like that.  What if you were born in 1969?  

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25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well Horst already punted next weekend's storm, saying that it's a rain storm, with only a long shot to get a rain to snow situation. I don't think he's idiotic?

I would tend to agree with what he is saying. Temps appear to be questionable. About Monday models will show a foot of snow and by Thursday it will all be rain.

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2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

when i first read this, i thought it said she had a psoriatic anus :lmao:

and i burst out laughing

they just call it sore ass for short.

  • Haha 1

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

can't wait

 

sorry

 

:lol:

 

Happy Friday (for the next 6 hours anyway)

 

One Weenie tag for you not waiting for Blizz.  Interesting thing about this one as it pertains to meteorology is that with a low that far off the coast we would usually want a full phase to explode possibilities but after looking at the temps I think keeping them separate but still partially interacting is the way to go. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One Weenie tag for you not waiting for Blizz.  Interesting thing about this one as it pertains to meteorology is that with a low that far off the coast we would usually want a full phase to explode possibilities but after looking at the temps I think keeping them separate but still partially interacting is the way to go. 

I'm deserving for sure

and to add to your point, it gives us wiggle room for the undeniable "north jog", but that said, at 210 it retrogrades right off SE NJ coast.  Verbatim we'd likely be safe w/ it tucked in close as general rule of thumb w/ coastal like this is that once storm gets to your latitude, you are usually safe as column is as warm as its gonna get, and any marginal boundary layers would crash and we snow....like hopefully CCB snow.....like lotsa CCB snow.  Stall that beeyatch.

OK, way too much analyzing an op run at 8 days....sure is perty though.

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'm deserving for sure

and to add to your point, it gives us wiggle room for the undeniable "north jog", but that said, at 210 it retrogrades right off SE NJ coast.  Verbatim we'd likely be safe w/ it tucked in close as general rule of thumb w/ coastal like this is that once storm gets to your latitude, you are usually safe as column is as warm as its gonna get, and any marginal boundary layers would crash and we snow....like hopefully CCB snow.....like lotsa CCB snow.  Stall that beeyatch.

OK, way too much analyzing an op run at 8 days....sure is perty though.

Of course for me personally my best snow is going to be when I bring up the CTP Radar and the screen is completed filled with DBZ's piling in from S/E to NW.  That look always means we are measuring in feet and and we are in the meaty quadrant of CCB snow.  I need the low to tuck in just a bit further South than NJ.  So tuck or no tuck I say to Lupe please give us a DelMarVa tuck.  I think you would be safe with that as well.

image.jpeg.8f39464b355b493817edbaf79c830988.jpeg

 

 

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Well Horst already punted next weekend's storm, saying that it's a rain storm, with only a long shot to get a rain to snow situation. I don't think he's idiotic?

Temp-wise you can argue but a storm can easily disappear or appear and in winter that can bring down cold air (or create its own). You can be very discouraged without punting, if that makes sense, which I get from Horst. 

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5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Temp-wise you can argue but a storm can easily disappear or appear and in winter that can bring down cold air (or create its own). You can be very discouraged without punting, if that makes sense, which I get from Horst. 

and ground truth says its always a safer bet to say "it ain't happening" wrt snowstorms and be right 90% of the time.

 

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Def a decent signal for a storm in that D8 or so timeframe, as models set up a nice western ridge for a change and it appears to be a time of amplification overall in the pattern over the CONUS. The Euro's southern wave kinda gets buried initially and seems like a later interaction with the northern stream, causing what it had at 12z. GFS and and Euro control had earlier phasing and thus cut the low too far west. Going to come down to timing of shortwaves, position/amplitude of the western ridge, and amount of phasing. There's a lot of different shortwaves running around in that time period on the models, so there could be some wound up solutions showing up (like yesterdays 954 on the GFS) if there's a clean phase. So yea, the potential is there. That's all the further I'm going into it for now. After how this week went for what ultimately is ending up a rainer for everyone inbound tonight and tomorrow I'm on a prove it to me basis for anything that doesn't actually cut west of us. 

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Blizzard92?  It must have been one of those "technical a blizzard but only 2" of snow" blizzards or he lived somewhere else in 92.

 

It would be interesting to hear some climate theories on why the 60's were so snowy.  Having random snowy years is just random but to have them consecutive like that would suggest something caused it.

Lol, well it was probably wasn't as memorable for most of the LSV but there was major nor-easter in Dec '92 that dumped similar snowfall amounts to the 93 superstorm in the interior. I think 50+ of UNV's 92" that season came just from those two events. Back when this part of the state used to see 20"+ snowstorms. 

 

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