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nj2va

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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Just another OP solution 150H+ out...shifts will happen so we’ll see what the GEFS says.  Considering where people expected to be 4 days ago, I’m happy we’re tracking something other than 85 degrees.  

I’ll be in McHenry next weekend for this so rooting for high as impact as possible.  

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The 500 changes across the whole of North America have been pretty numerous over the past few runs, especially up over Quebec. I suspect these smaller pieces are gonna have a big impact on the final outcome. We need something to force this low further south as well as hold that colder air over the ne. Think we also don’t want a sharp trough will that energy coming across the Midwest. The better solutions had a less pronounced 500 wave.

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I would think this may increase the potential for cold and storms from late Jan through March. 

This more typical Nino-ish pattern and descending QBO might be enough to have a rather stormy and cold March as well, but some feel we need to have some sort of SSW to accomplish winter to late March.   

 

 

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Gefs slightly worse for next weekend but not a significant change. 

After that is says suppression is the bigger issue for the day 10/11 threat.  Shifted the trough axis slightly too far southeast. But for day 10 it’s noise. Big signal for the threat as the blocking relaxes day 12-14. Goes bonkers with the HL ridge around day 10

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Remember all those times we talked about where we need an epo right to be centered to get snow. Like this...

D633B1FF-5C0F-4679-AE84-33C399DE96B5.thumb.png.2b36a51cefaa453cfa8f74a0a41f2092.png

signs of an active stj cutting under doesn’t hurt either. 

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1 minute ago, LurkerBoy said:

Why all the sudden panic over the GFS?

I didn’t notice any panic. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

? What panic?

He’s panicking. Assumes the rest of us are too.  And he appears to be a cartoon from another era. 

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@psuhoffman All weekly and seasonal guidance says that EPO ridge is here to stay through Feb. If that's the case it would take some pretty bad luck to not have multiple events. Fun period coming up. We should be focusing mostly on 7 days or less by late next week. D10+ is tiring every.single.year

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At least we can go with experience and know that the GFS has the tendency to drive low pressures into the highs and we all know how that normally plays out (gets forced a lot further south and east). 

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2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

18z had initialization errors. No panic here.

Really?  I always thought that’s what we say when things look bad with a particular model run. 

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21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Really?  I always thought that’s what we say when things look bad with a particular model run. 

Oh yeah, that's right. My bad.

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4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away.

Well Bob said heh a couple times.  That’s code for flip to a wintry pattern.  

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11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away.

This. See under - “all of last winter” during the epic pattern that never arrived.

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6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

We’ve now reached the stage where many are expecting a flip to a wintry pattern. There will be weenie suicides every time a model takes snow away.

Here's how I look at it... this winter has pretty much been epic disaster so far. We've all paid our dues already. There's a half decent chance that the pattern on deck is generally favorable for multiple weeks in a row. Even if the 18z gfs played out it's still a good a good look at the end. As long as the later periods on the ens keep looking ok I'm not going to stress about anything.

OTOH- if the pattern flips back to abject failure before Jan is done this place will implode and we can call it a winter and meet back here next fall. The good thing is the CFS, Euro Weeklies and CanSips all look basically identical in the Pac for all of Feb into March. I know seasonal and weekly guidance suck sometimes but seeing unanimous agreement is encouraging. 

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The only thing I’m tracking is next weekend’s potential storm.  I’ve seen enough patterns D10-D15 change on a dime on the ensembles, both for better and for worse to get myself invested in hoping for an amazing pattern.  January looked dreadful a few days ago and now we are hopefully looking at a flip but I still don’t put much faith in D10+ looks. 
 

I mean I’m rooting for a KU pattern just as much as the next weenie but I’m keeping my expectations in check.  

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon.

Stop being a bratwurst. :weenie: LOL

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