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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread

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This morning, the temperature fell to 14° in Philadelphia. That was the coldest temperature this winter and the coldest since February 2, 2019 when the temperature fell to 11°.

So far, Philadelphia has had no days in January or February during which the high temperature reached no higher than 32°. The only time January and February saw no such days was in 1932. December 1931 also had no such days. However, March 1932 had 4 days during which the high temperature reached no higher than 32°.

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Bottomed out at 13F (12.7) this morning with dps below 0 (-1F). That's when you know there's arctic air passing through.  Currently "up to" 23 here now. with dp 6... and overhead we've got that big ole high, so there's truly not a cloud in the sky (my rhyme for the day :D).

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With snowfall prospects likely remaining bleak through much of the second half of February, at look at March concerning the Arctic Oscillation and PNA is useful. During March, the wave lengths are continuing to shorten, so the diversity of 500 mb patterns with (and also without) snow tends to increase.

Below is data for March 1981-2019 for Philadelphia:

AO-/PNA-:

Mean Temperature: 43.0 degrees

% Days with Measurable Snow: 4.3%

% Days with 1" or More Snow: 2.2%

AO-/PNA+:

Mean Temperature: 42.1 degrees

% Days with Measurable Snow: 7.0%

% Days with 1" or More Snow: 2.8%

AO+/PNA-:

Mean Temperature: 43.3 degrees

% Days with Measurable Snow: 10.0%

% Days with 1" or More Snow: 5.0%

AO+/PNA+:

Mean Temperature: 45.1 degrees

% Days with Measurable Snow: 3.6%

% Days with 1" or More Snow: 1.6%

March 1981-2019 Period:

Mean Temperature: 43.4 degrees

% Days with Measurable Snow: 6.3%

% Days with 1" or More Snow: 2.9%

 

Biggest Snowstorm (March 1950-2019):

AO-/PNA-: 11.4", March 1958

AO-/PNA+: 8.8", March 1981

AO+/PNA-: 12.0", March 1993

AO+/PNA+: 6.0", March 2017 (only 4" or greater snowstorm with this combination)

 

Of course, more is involved than the state of the teleconnections. But the teleconnections can provide some starting insight.

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My high just barely hit 32 (31.8) yesterday and my low for today (so far) was at midnight at 26. Did make it up to 47. Currently 43 and partly cloudy.

1 hour ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Really light flakes in lake harmony, PA at Big Boulder.  Just got up here, never been before.   Not very big..

That's where I went on my first ski trip back in high school... I think in 1978.  The one issue we ran into on the trip that day was that despite a decent snowpack, the temps were above freezing (may have been the low 40s), so right when you were getting off the lift, the snow at the jump-off point had melted a bit and packed down, becoming a glacier with water on top. So as skiers hopped off the lift, they immediately slipped and fell and they had to stop the lift each time. :axe:

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2 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Really light flakes in lake harmony, PA at Big Boulder.  Just got up here, never been before.   Not very big..

I think it's 500 feet (max)? Back in the day I liked Elk Mountain - a further drive, but not as crowded and about double the vertical drop.

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49 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

My high just barely hit 32 (31.8) yesterday and my low for today (so far) was at midnight at 26. Did make it up to 47. Currently 43 and partly cloudy.

That's where I went on my first ski trip back in high school... I think in 1978.  The one issue we ran into on the trip that day was that despite a decent snowpack, the temps were above freezing (may have been the low 40s), so right when you were getting off the lift, the snow at the jump-off point had melted a bit and packed down, becoming a glacier with water on top. So as skiers hopped off the lift, they immediately slipped and fell and they had to stop the lift each time. :axe:

Back in 1971 they had 2 feet on Thanksgiving so I drove up there on Friday for the day. I went one other time and it had rained, froze, been "groomed", and you really didn't want to fall cuz it was like skiing on ice cubes, lol.

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1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

Back in 1971 they had 2 feet on Thanksgiving so I drove up there on Friday for the day. I went one other time and it had rained, froze, been "groomed", and you really didn't want to fall cuz it was like skiing on ice cubes, lol.

I believe it.  :lol:  And what was also bad were the grooming tractor ruts on the sides of the slopes that had melted and then frozen into mini concrete-like pillars that you sure didn't want to slide into.  My only other trip up to the Poconos was the following year to Tamiment Resort (which was north of Bushkill Falls) in January for a senior class trip, and it rained the whole weekend with temps in the 40s and lots of fog.  They did have an enclosed ice rink at that time that my classmates checked out, but all-in-all, that January was a winter FAIL :axe: (although the big snow did come the next month).  

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

I think it's 500 feet (max)? Back in the day I liked Elk Mountain - a further drive, but not as crowded and about double the vertical drop.

Yeah about 500-600ft and very gradual slope.  Pretty much a massive terrain park as the mellow slope is perfect for those.  Big 'culture' shock going from riding Jay and Wildcat two weeks ago.  Not really my cup of tea but nice to check out on one of my few days off to ride. 

Elk is great,  definitely worth the driv for more consistent snow and pitch.

 

Rains to Canada they said.. 

20200124_150531_copy_3991x1940_1.thumb.jpg.fa57611b8bd24c554a1c8e8ce6d76c91.jpg

2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

the snow at the jump-off point had melted a bit and packed down, becoming a glacier with water on top. So as skiers hopped off the lift, they immediately slipped and fell and they had to stop the lift each time. :axe:

A bit like today, some ice out on the hill and frozen slush at the lift boarding and exit points.  

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52 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Got down to 19F overnight...almost makes you think it was winter.

Deceiving looks outside today. Not knowing the weather forecast I would have guessed 40-50F but I'm at 29F. (11:20am) 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Welcome to spring

50 already

Not only that but you can really feel the Spring sun kicking in...it penetrates the skin. Took a walk and I think I could get some color today if hanging outside? Winter sun may be bright but doesn't "hit you" like a late Feb/heading toward Spring sun does. It's a vast difference from early Dec through Jan then it slowly goes downhill. We're on life support.... 

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

60F 

Relieved to see the GFS March cold wave was just the GFS doing it's bias thing. After next weekends cold snap looks like early spring is on the table.

 

 

This weekend may be the last time we see 30s for a high and any chance of snow is a pipe dream....

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Our NE PA friends may see some snow on the backside tomorrow. Perhaps even down to Allentown may see some flakes at the end. NAM gives Scranton 1-3".

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I'm crossing my fingers we can get a similar system to tomorrow to occur a month from now. Would be a very interesting severe set up if that was the case. I think we're in for a decent severe spring with no signs of the pattern changing. That would be cool. 

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Seems like a lot of the rain events of late have been under performing. Looks like more of the same tn. Was looking like a 1"+ of rain a few days ago, now looking like a half inch or less. Fairly below normal which isn't a surprise due to the lack of snowpack across the region. Next few weeks look active though so we may be able to put a dent in this. Still fires like the one on Tammany the other night may start becoming more frequent if we don't get some more soaking rains soon.

 

YearPNormNRCC.png

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19 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Seems like a lot of the rain events of late have been under performing. Looks like more of the same tn. Was looking like a 1"+ of rain a few days ago, now looking like a half inch or less. Fairly below normal which isn't a surprise due to the lack of snowpack across the region. Next few weeks look active though so we may be able to put a dent in this. Still fires like the one on Tammany the other night may start becoming more frequent if we don't get some more soaking rains soon.

That map is low for me.  Currently at 5.46" of precip  on the year which is just about average for Jan and Feb.  Tonight should put it over.  Seems like it's almost always cloudy and/or raining.  

 

Edit:  Taking another look at that map, it's really not that much lower than reality.  

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9 minutes ago, BBasile said:

That map is low for me.  Currently at 5.46" of precip  on the year which is just about average for Jan and Feb.  Tonight should put it over.  Seems like it's almost always cloudy and/or raining.  

 

Edit:  Taking another look at that map, it's really not that much lower than reality.  

Yeah S jersey has done better than PHL and N and W. PHL is at 4.51" on the year so far. Currently ranked 109th out of 136 years. Average to date is around 5.6" so about an inch below normal so far. A few active weeks should erase that though.

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