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Upstate/Eastern New York

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champy
champy

As an avid photographer, I have basically weekly images from the past 15 years...so it's a visual and digital journal. It's nice to go back and see how the years tend to compare. While some of us are

Geez150
Geez150

Long time lurker here in warm and snowless Caledonia. Though I offer no weather insight or knowledge I am a snowmobiler and therefore I am a die hard winter lover. Over the last year or two I have com

rochesterdave
rochesterdave

I’ve had the luckiest week of my life. Passed my MR Registry (medical imaging board), got an unexpected raise, had a great trip to Chicago. If this thing happens, after jumping on it early, I’ll

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted
I got my hopes up way too big. What a dud. It still kills me that a setup like this could fall on its face. 
live and learn. I’m a moron. 
I hear there’s another one coming?!?!?:axe:


If you followed the model output on this one you got burned big time. NWS took the safe route, overshot, but eh quite honestly don’t think they’ll see a lot of negative feedback from the public as it was only a WWA and it was actually pretty crappy driving for a few hours. But for the weenies who jumped on the train they got let down for sure. Everything was there but the temps screwed us again... at least 3rd time this year the models have gone in strong agreement on a too cold bias. Guarantee next system we see come through this marginal the human input is going to toss out any excessive accumulation maps like we have been seeing. Yeah that’ll be the the one that actually taps the cold and overachieves. Ah well it was fun tracking this piece of crap through the state today. Snow on the board today 0.8”. Melted Equivalent 0.32”. We need a powder storm... looks like a freaking snow cone machine exploded outside... slop!


.
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rochesterdave

rochesterdave

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


If you followed the model output on this one you got burned big time. NWS took the safe route, overshot, but eh quite honestly don’t think they’ll see a lot of negative feedback from the public as it was only a WWA and it was actually pretty crappy driving for a few hours. But for the weenies who jumped on the train they got let down for sure. Everything was there but the temps screwed us again... at least 3rd time this year the models have gone in strong agreement on a too cold bias. Guarantee next system we see come through this marginal the human input is going to toss out any excessive accumulation maps like we have been seeing. Yeah that’ll be the the one that actually taps the cold and overachieves. Ah well it was fun tracking this piece of crap through the state today. Snow on the board today 0.8”. Melted Equivalent 0.32”. We need a powder storm... looks like a freaking snow cone machine exploded outside... slop!


.

 

Couldn’t agree more. Freak saw the temp issues. I just focused on track, qpf and a classic HP over the dakotas. On paper this thing was golden for WNY- except for the low levels being off by 3-4F. Fu.. ME!!

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Thinksnow18

Thinksnow18

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

All the models going south for Tuesday. Pretty soon Syracuse is going to be out of it...again. This is getting old.

Yeah it's not looking good for anyone from WNY to central NY for Monday night Tuesday. Your area will have a good chance at W/NW lake effect Wed and Thursday. The Niagara Frontier? Could be weeks before anything substantial.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah it's not looking good for anyone from WNY to central NY for Monday night Tuesday. Your area will have a good chance at W/NW lake effect Wed and Thursday. The Niagara Frontier? Could be weeks before anything substantial.

I think until some sort of pattern readjustment, it's best to go with a dusting to 3 inches for every single system that has a hint of snow.

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Wow actually some pretty nice totals in Southern Erie County. Look what an extra 1000’ gets!

7c1a5251fd9d8922763355c0445b7b32.jpg


.

Not on that list but some areas between lockport out to N.falls had to have at least couple inches, barely an inch fell in Cheektowaga.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

What I'm about to say has never happened in my life but it did tonight. After taking 7 hrs to switch to snow, it has gone back over to rain, RLMAO!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Yup..It's the new winter. November is two months long (November 1st to January 1)...then we get two months of somewhat winter...and then we have two months of March...

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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The Niagara Frontier? Could be weeks before anything substantial.

Yeah, outside the mid-November synoptic storm, this first part of this season is looking like a lemon for Buffalo. We have about 4-5 weeks before Lake Erie shuts off and we have to cross our fingers that we get cutoffs, wraparound, etc. And at least though Christmas week chances for anything don’t look good. If I had to bet on KBUF getting to the seasonal norm in 2019-20, I’d definitely take the under.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted 
Snow Monday night and into Tuesday will be on the minor side, with
just an inch or two Monday night, and an additional 1 -3 inches
Tuesday. As the inverted trough passes us Tuesday, precipitation
will taper off from west to east behind its passage. Colder air will
then flow over the Eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, with temperatures at 850 hPa falling down to around
-12 to -14C. This will result in lake effect snow forming, to
the east of the Lakes. Winds may back enough ahead of another
surface trough late Tuesday night to bring snows as far north as
Buffalo, while to the east of Lake Ontario a long westerly fetch
over Lake Ontario will primarily orient the band of lake effect snow
Tuesday afternoon and night towards the Tug Hill. While inversion
heights will rise to over 10K feet east of both Lakes, and low level
lapse rates increase to over 8 C/km moisture will again be marginal
for heavy lake effect snowbands to form. Also 850 hPa low does not
really close off, but rather is just a passing upper level
trough...which can lead to oscillating bands of snow. As a result,
snow maximums east of both lakes may just end up low - mid advisory
range.
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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted

 
Nice shortwave backing the winds to SW on the 0z German.
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png&key=d74517f5fa6ac5e49018df2d4ad8005ac097471d7dd3326dbdf576608619de98
 
 


Been watching that time period for last 2 days and again another feature (small as it may be) that gave some nice looks but gets less and less impressive each run. Nice write up from BUF on this.

AFD-
Colder air will then flow over the Eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, with temperatures at 850 hPa falling down to around -12 to -14C. This will result in lake effect snow forming, to the east of the Lakes. Winds may back enough ahead of another surface trough late Tuesday night to bring snows as far north as Buffalo, while to the east of Lake Ontario a long westerly fetch over Lake Ontario will primarily orient the band of lake effect snow Tuesday afternoon and night towards the Tug Hill. While inversion heights will rise to over 10K feet east of both Lakes, and low level lapse rates increase to over 8 C/km moisture will again be marginal for heavy lake effect snowbands to form. Also 850 hPa low does not really close off, but rather is just a passing upper level trough...which can lead to oscillating bands of snow. As a result,
snow maximums east of both lakes may just end up low - mid advisory range.



.
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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Been watching that time period for last 2 days and again another feature (small as it may be) that gave some nice looks but gets less and less impressive each run. Nice write up from BUF on this.

AFD-
Colder air will then flow over the Eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, with temperatures at 850 hPa falling down to around -12 to -14C. This will result in lake effect snow forming, to the east of the Lakes. Winds may back enough ahead of another surface trough late Tuesday night to bring snows as far north as Buffalo, while to the east of Lake Ontario a long westerly fetch over Lake Ontario will primarily orient the band of lake effect snow Tuesday afternoon and night towards the Tug Hill. While inversion heights will rise to over 10K feet east of both Lakes, and low level lapse rates increase to over 8 C/km moisture will again be marginal for heavy lake effect snowbands to form. Also 850 hPa low does not really close off, but rather is just a passing upper level trough...which can lead to oscillating bands of snow. As a result,
snow maximums east of both lakes may just end up low - mid advisory range.



.

 

This winter really does seem like everything that pops up just keeps disappearing as it gets closer however we are still somehow above average on the season (mostly due to the mid November storm that dumped almost a foot). I’m just shy of 30” on the season but it doesn’t feel like it because every time we get snow it melts or gets washed away within a couple days. I feel like that’s been the theme of the 2010s winters (except for 13/14 & 14/15)  is for lots of warm ups and frequent meltdowns with very little long sustained cold. Maybe it’s just my  memory but it sure doesn’t seem winters are the way they used to be. 

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SouthBuffaloSteve

SouthBuffaloSteve

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:
This winter really does seem like everything that pops up just keeps disappearing as it gets closer however we are still somehow above average on the season (mostly due to the mid November storm that dumped almost a foot). I’m just shy of 30” on the season but it doesn’t feel like it because every time we get snow it melts or gets washed away within a couple days. I feel like that’s been the theme of the 2010s winters (except for 13/14 & 14/15)  is for lots of warm ups and frequent meltdowns with very little long sustained cold. Maybe it’s just my  memory but it sure doesn’t seem winters are the way they used to be. 

 


Totally agree! Seems those of us that were younger remember the 90s and early 2000s being great winters. Seemed every year we started building up snow around Thanksgiving, held it through Christmas, had the yearly “January Thaw” before another few weeks of winter. Now it’s nickel and dime snow that melts a day or two later and we don’t really get into a prolonged winter pattern until we hit January. Who knows maybe it is global warming...


.

 

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