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Carvers Gap

Winter Observations '19-20

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8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

BIG rumbles of thunder IMBY...maybe that Saturday system has some merit?  LOL.  That rule is going to be severely tested this time around.  Ten day clock has started tickin'.

It took less than 12 hours for that theory to verify in west Tn.  lol 

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2 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

It took less than 12 hours for that theory to verify in west Tn.  lol 

Pretty cool.  I think the reason that works is because severe wx during winter indicates sharp wavelengths where the ridges and troughs really dig.  Pretty cool somebody figured that out years ago, likely without a weather map within 100 miles of them.  The saying goes(at least how it was shared with me) that thunder in the western North Carolina mountains during winter means snow will fall within ten days(some say 14 days).   There are some other interesting "sayings" as well...if snow is on the ground for three days, it is waiting for another(snow).  I don't know about the second rule...but the thunder deal is pretty interesting.  I am pretty sure that the blizzard of '93 was preceded by a very severe tornado outbreak across E TN about twenty days earlier.  While that doesn't follow the rule exactly(occurred three weeks later), it might be around that time that I noticed that rule might actually have some merit.  But hey, congratulations on the snow!!!

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I have heard, snow breeds more snow. Basically it says a cold weather pattern is in place so another snow falls. We've seen two in a row here. I've seen it back in Kansas. I wonder if we'll ever see it again, lol.

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

...if snow is on the ground for three days, it is waiting for another(snow).  I don't know about the second rule...but the thunder deal is pretty interesting.  I am pretty sure that the blizzard of '93 was preceded by a very severe tornado outbreak across E TN about twenty days earlier.  While that doesn't follow the rule exactly(occurred three weeks later), it might be around that time that I noticed that rule might actually have some merit.  But hey, congratulations on the snow!!!

As for the thunder, it is about an amplified pattern. It can go both directions, especially in the Plains. I think here it's more the warm to cold, due to slower recovery. This time looks like a Deep South system is wasted Sun/Mon. Then next week is forecast warm, but the 6-10 day has been less reliable than usual lately.

Oh yeah this is the Obs thread. Decent wind rain thunder and lightning in Chattanooga Monday evening. While sub-severe IMBY it was still a notable December thunderstorm with intermittent vivid lightning and loud thunder. Calmed down overnight. Then just before dawn the winds cranked up as the cold front crashed over the Plateau into town.

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3 hours ago, John1122 said:

Not sure about other areas, but we had 4 inches of snow just a couple of days after that severe weather event in late February 1993. 

and a couple of more just a few weeks later.... lol

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It's been colder than I expected the last several days, maybe I hadn't been paying attention with all the talk of coming warmth and was expecting it to be warm. Had lows in the upper 10s and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s several days in a row now.

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Interesting line of enhancement overnight running from the Smokies to the plateau:

giphy.gif

Any ideas on that one?

Looks to me it runs almost directly E to W, starting just north of Mt Le Conte and ending at the plateau near Harriman. 

You can even see some subsidence north of it and reenhancement north of the subsidence. 

giphy.gif

Infared kinda shows it too as some of the cloud tops cool on the leeside of the Smokies, but it doesn't look as linear here. 

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It appears to move south midway through the radar loop. Given its linear nature and odd movement, my assumption is it's a mesoscale boundary of some sort.

Those loops are a nice reminder of how sweet a snow shield this would be.  

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You know it is an interesting weather pattern when the marching band semi has to fight its way through snow in the mountains just outside of....Los Angeles.  They saw snow in Arizona and in much of the mountain ranges of Southern California.  Heck, downtown LA looks sort of like Salt Lake City with the snow capped peaks in the background!

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Updated: TYS set a record high today at 78! Old record was 71 for reference. Also the warmest Knoxville has ever been this late in the year and 3rd highest temp ever in the month of December.

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Finally put us in a flood advisory,lots of our creeks are running over,some good rains today

 

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

TNC037-147-165-187-189-300100-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FA.Y.0159.191229T2306Z-191230T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Davidson TN-Sumner TN-Williamson TN-Wilson TN-Robertson TN-
506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Davidson County in Middle Tennessee...
  Southern Sumner County in Middle Tennessee...
  North central Williamson County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northwestern Wilson County in Middle Tennessee...
  Southeastern Robertson County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 700 PM CST.

* At 505 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory
  area. Area creeks are rising quickly and may flood some low areas.
  This includes Mill Creek, Richland Creek, Browns Creek, Seven Mile
  Creek, and Mansker Creek.


* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Gallatin, Nashville, Madison, Hendersonville, Brentwood, Mount
  Juliet, Goodlettsville, Millersville, Greenbrier, Forest Hills, Oak
  Hill, Belle Meade, Lakewood, Ridgetop, Hermitage, Rural Hill,
  Bellevue, Antioch, Belinda City and Old Hickory.

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32 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Finally put us in a flood advisory,lots of our creeks are running over,some good rains today

 

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Nashville TN
506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

TNC037-147-165-187-189-300100-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FA.Y.0159.191229T2306Z-191230T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Davidson TN-Sumner TN-Williamson TN-Wilson TN-Robertson TN-
506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  Davidson County in Middle Tennessee...
  Southern Sumner County in Middle Tennessee...
  North central Williamson County in Middle Tennessee...
  Northwestern Wilson County in Middle Tennessee...
  Southeastern Robertson County in Middle Tennessee...

* Until 700 PM CST.

* At 505 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory
  area. Area creeks are rising quickly and may flood some low areas.
  This includes Mill Creek, Richland Creek, Browns Creek, Seven Mile
  Creek, and Mansker Creek.


* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Gallatin, Nashville, Madison, Hendersonville, Brentwood, Mount
  Juliet, Goodlettsville, Millersville, Greenbrier, Forest Hills, Oak
  Hill, Belle Meade, Lakewood, Ridgetop, Hermitage, Rural Hill,
  Bellevue, Antioch, Belinda City and Old Hickory.

Yea, I am not sure what is going on with them today but we are honestly floating away here in Sumner county, not sure why it takes them so long to react to current weather conditions. 

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1 minute ago, weathertree4u said:

Yea, I am not sure what is going on with them today but we are honestly floating away here in Sumner county, not sure why it takes them so long to react to current weather conditions. 

Ha...yeah i'm with you we've been flooding here,they just put us in a warning

 

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

...The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a flood warning for
the following rivers in middle Tennessee...

  Mill Creek Near Nolensville affecting Davidson County

. Heavy rain over the last few hours has caused rapid rises along Mill Creek at
Nolensville. The creek has reached flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid flooded areas along the river...And move personal belongings to higher
ground. Never drive through flooded roads as the depth of water may be too great
to pass...Even in trucks or sport utility vehicles. If you come across a flooded
road...Turn around don`t drown.

Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information
from the National Weather Service.

&&

TNC037-301204-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FL.W.0045.191230T0004Z-000000T0000Z/
/NLVT1.1.ER.191229T2327Z.191229T2330Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Mill Creek Near Nolensville
* From this evening until further notice.
* At 05PM Sunday the stage was...13.1 feet
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* At 16.0 feet...Further flooding of the athletic fields at Lighthouse Christian
  School, property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and property in the Concord
  Village shopping center is occurring. Water approaches properties along Bluff
  Rd and Nolensville Pike south of Concord Rd.
* At 15.0 feet...Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and Bluff Rd west of
  Nolensville Pike are flooded and impassable. Water begins to flood property in
  the Concord Village shopping center at Concord Rd and Nolensville Pike, and
  water approaches low lying areas near A.Z. Kelley Elementary School.
* At 14.0 feet...Culbertson Rd and Bluff Rd near Nolensville Pike at the
  Chandler Harris bridge are flooded. Water begins to flood the athletic fields
  at Lighthouse Christian School and property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd.
* At 13.0 feet...Water begins to flood low lying areas along the creek,
  including portions of Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and walking
  trails near the Honey Brook subdivision. Water also approaches Bluff Road west
  of Nolensville Pike.
* At 12.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek,
  including property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and the athletic fields near
  Lighthouse Christian School. Water may also approach low lying areas near the
  Chandler Harris bridge on Nolensville Pike, including portions of Culbertson
  Rd.
* At 11.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek.

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Just now, jaxjagman said:

Ha...yeah i'm with you we've been flooding here,they just put us in a warning

 

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

...The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a flood warning for
the following rivers in middle Tennessee...

  Mill Creek Near Nolensville affecting Davidson County

. Heavy rain over the last few hours has caused rapid rises along Mill Creek at
Nolensville. The creek has reached flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid flooded areas along the river...And move personal belongings to higher
ground. Never drive through flooded roads as the depth of water may be too great
to pass...Even in trucks or sport utility vehicles. If you come across a flooded
road...Turn around don`t drown.

Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information
from the National Weather Service.

&&

TNC037-301204-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FL.W.0045.191230T0004Z-000000T0000Z/
/NLVT1.1.ER.191229T2327Z.191229T2330Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Mill Creek Near Nolensville
* From this evening until further notice.
* At 05PM Sunday the stage was...13.1 feet
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* At 16.0 feet...Further flooding of the athletic fields at Lighthouse Christian
  School, property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and property in the Concord
  Village shopping center is occurring. Water approaches properties along Bluff
  Rd and Nolensville Pike south of Concord Rd.
* At 15.0 feet...Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and Bluff Rd west of
  Nolensville Pike are flooded and impassable. Water begins to flood property in
  the Concord Village shopping center at Concord Rd and Nolensville Pike, and
  water approaches low lying areas near A.Z. Kelley Elementary School.
* At 14.0 feet...Culbertson Rd and Bluff Rd near Nolensville Pike at the
  Chandler Harris bridge are flooded. Water begins to flood the athletic fields
  at Lighthouse Christian School and property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd.
* At 13.0 feet...Water begins to flood low lying areas along the creek,
  including portions of Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and walking
  trails near the Honey Brook subdivision. Water also approaches Bluff Road west
  of Nolensville Pike.
* At 12.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek,
  including property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and the athletic fields near
  Lighthouse Christian School. Water may also approach low lying areas near the
  Chandler Harris bridge on Nolensville Pike, including portions of Culbertson
  Rd.
* At 11.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek.

It is like they have a certain number of warnings that can be issued they are afraid to use them. I know here, even though we went several days since the last rain, everything was running off this morning. We need a serious pattern change!!!

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1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Ha...yeah i'm with you we've been flooding here,they just put us in a warning

 

Flood Warning
National Weather Service Nashville TN
604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

...The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a flood warning for
the following rivers in middle Tennessee...

  Mill Creek Near Nolensville affecting Davidson County

. Heavy rain over the last few hours has caused rapid rises along Mill Creek at
Nolensville. The creek has reached flood stage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid flooded areas along the river...And move personal belongings to higher
ground. Never drive through flooded roads as the depth of water may be too great
to pass...Even in trucks or sport utility vehicles. If you come across a flooded
road...Turn around don`t drown.

Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information
from the National Weather Service.

&&

TNC037-301204-
/O.NEW.KOHX.FL.W.0045.191230T0004Z-000000T0000Z/
/NLVT1.1.ER.191229T2327Z.191229T2330Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019

The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Mill Creek Near Nolensville
* From this evening until further notice.
* At 05PM Sunday the stage was...13.1 feet
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* At 16.0 feet...Further flooding of the athletic fields at Lighthouse Christian
  School, property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and property in the Concord
  Village shopping center is occurring. Water approaches properties along Bluff
  Rd and Nolensville Pike south of Concord Rd.
* At 15.0 feet...Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and Bluff Rd west of
  Nolensville Pike are flooded and impassable. Water begins to flood property in
  the Concord Village shopping center at Concord Rd and Nolensville Pike, and
  water approaches low lying areas near A.Z. Kelley Elementary School.
* At 14.0 feet...Culbertson Rd and Bluff Rd near Nolensville Pike at the
  Chandler Harris bridge are flooded. Water begins to flood the athletic fields
  at Lighthouse Christian School and property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd.
* At 13.0 feet...Water begins to flood low lying areas along the creek,
  including portions of Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and walking
  trails near the Honey Brook subdivision. Water also approaches Bluff Road west
  of Nolensville Pike.
* At 12.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek,
  including property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and the athletic fields near
  Lighthouse Christian School. Water may also approach low lying areas near the
  Chandler Harris bridge on Nolensville Pike, including portions of Culbertson
  Rd.
* At 11.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek.

We live by Concord road just off Concord Pass

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1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

We live by Concord road just off Concord Pass

I work off Harding but live in Cottontown; Mill Creek takes most all of the run off from everything down there, not too surprising to her that it is in flood

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