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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That is an impressive convective snow band in the NAM. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elevated TT’s. It will be interesting to see where it actually sets up.

Severe thunderstorms with the upper low in western PA near Pittsburgh right now. Quite a few small hail reports coming out of that low-topped squall line.525854495_ScreenShot2019-12-01at4_51_09PM.thumb.png.f56cdc12df7f586ca1cd73ecadffab83.png

This is part of the feature we'll see rotating into NJ and offshore tomorrow morning.

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So far this storm (part 1) has played out exactly as modeled give or take some variance.

That doesnt bode well for most of you on this forum going forward if:

a) you trust the models

b) you acknowledge models have been pretty good thus far

Accuweather hasnt budged from their 1-2 inch forecast for lower westchester for several days...not that that means much. 

 

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4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

So far this storm (part 1) has played out exactly as modeled give or take some variance.

That doesnt bode well for most of you on this forum going forward if:

a) you trust the models

b) you acknowledge models have been pretty good thus far

Accuweather hasnt budged from their 1-2 inch forecast for lower westchester for several days...not that that means much. 

 

This makes absolutely no sense. The models are beginning to show good snows for much of the region. Considering that models are an inherently provisional tool, at what point do we lock in what's 'modeled'? 

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It seems to me that there will be a band, that where it sets up people will cash in, and that NYC will at least be on the edge or pivot or that band as it snows out. So 3-6 seems a good call for NYC to me, with potentially more, especially since (to me) a lot of these model outputs are putting NYC in the convective bands but the thermals are iffy so it's showing up as rain, when in reality it's probably heavy rain transitioning to heavy snow. My two cents. And by potentially more I meant like 4-8, not like a foot.

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I would not want to be a pro-met for this. The NWS has a great discussion about the uncertainty. They are definitely hesitant on that deformation band and where it sets up. Usually, these bands tend to be over-modeled in my experience. I am cautious, but I am thinking and have always been thinking this is a more north storm that a metro NYC storm. You can also tell meteorologists must be sleep deprived and over this storm (see bolded word from the forecast discussion). Should be Monday??

The other challenging factor is the transition back to snow
across the area on Wednesday. Using a consensus approach, this
changeover occurs across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE
NJ during the late morning hours, then works east in the
afternoon and evening hours. A changeover to all snow is
expected across much of the area by midnight. Timing of this
transition in conjunction with the deformation zone will be key
to the amount of snowfall that falls across the region. There
will likely be significant differences in snowfall amounts over
short distances. Forecast amount changes are highly likely as
this event unfolds.
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36 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

This makes absolutely no sense. The models are beginning to show good snows for much of the region. Considering that models are an inherently provisional tool, at what point do we lock in what's 'modeled'? 

You could never lock it in

There seems to be a storm that is going to possibly leave a couple of inches of snow on the ground as it pulls away

What we are hoping for is a repeat of last November

But the models of been pretty consistent about that warm tongue thru Central Long Island

They have also been pretty consistent about a heavy band of snow setting up somewhere in central New Jersey

 could all of that shift ? sure

Have there been any deviations from what was forecasted thus far? Not really

 With most snowstorms dont we usually have very good confidence in what we are getting within 24 hours? Yes

Could we throw all the caution in the wind and say there’s a possibility of warning snows in New York City?  I guess. But that seems more hype and wish casting at this point than run after run various models have shown

 

 

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2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

@weatherpruf seems like latest models put our area under the death bands. Hopefully we can cash in. 

There has been an ever so slight nudge east it seems at 12 and 18Z today overall but probably still need a 30-50 mile shift.  That can more or less occur simply off average model error by this time tomorrow

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52 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

So far this storm (part 1) has played out exactly as modeled give or take some variance.

That doesnt bode well for most of you on this forum going forward if:

a) you trust the models

b) you acknowledge models have been pretty good thus far

Accuweather hasnt budged from their 1-2 inch forecast for lower westchester for several days...not that that means much. 

 

Well no one called for more than 1-3 here, and so I don't expect much. I get 3-4 when they call for 8-12....

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

NJ has been getting an extremely generous amount of snowfall over the past 20 years.

Normal is like 20-30 for most of the state.

And not everyone in NE likes snow; many people in the Boston area are there for work and hope for a transfer. And some people think the amount of snow we get in NJ is excessive ( actually a lot of people ). They obviously don't live near me...

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