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Ralph Wiggum

Winter 2019-2020 Banter Thread

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On 1/17/2020 at 10:47 PM, Albedoman said:

Here is something of how and why I base my LR predictions on past weather events. While it is no way perfect, weather history IMHO is still essential to accurately predict long range events. Until recently, I could never substantiate how well my memory was on how certain weather patterns that were in place at the time of actual snow depth on the ground. Many younger posters will vividly remember 1996 and 2010 as big storms in the area. KU events tend to stand out. I personally experienced 1987, 1993, 1999 and so on. But the one winter year that stands out far more than any other is January 21, 1994- March  28 1994  where it was so cold and the snow depth on the ground was high and even the roads had constant ruts where snow and ice never melted for days.

This video below is perfect way of how I try to match up weather history of snow depth with actual daily weather patterns. If someone would create  a program to match of the daily MJO with this video, it would be a good start in helping everyone to understand the upcoming evolution of certain weather patterns.  Simply model hugging every six hour run of the GFS and NAM and 12 hr runs of the Euro and CMC  will drive a person insane and is not an accurate sole indicator of ever changing weather patterns. The atmosphere is dynamically fluid and so are the computer models, especially the last several years as evident by constant changes in the GFS model alone. They are guidance tools just like satellite imagery to help form an accurate daily forecast. To rely just on the daily computer generated models to predict long range forecasting is ill advised IMHO.

Weather history is also not fluid nor is it the sole reason for expecting major weather pattern changes. But when combine with synoptic daily weather forecasting, long range forecasting becomes much more reliable. Many old timers like me use weather history to generate our thoughts for producing long range predictions and not just rely on computer generated models like the MJO. When I first was involved in weather in the late 1970's , computers generated models were only available at NOAA in MD. Everything else was hand generated with only three - five day max forecasting available with little satellite imagery. I remember getting blank maps of the US and having to hand draw fronts, isotherms, isobars etc on the maps and turn them over to my professors to be graded on accurate they were based on the weekly plots by NOAA from Md. Yes, hand drawn using data generated by balloons etc and airport weather stations. Yes I admit, I am old fart but I would not have any other way. 

Weather history plays a vital role and I still heavily rely on it. Many of todays meteorologists use weather history primarily for daily and annual comparisons for extremes. When I was first predicting long range forecasting for my family and friends, I  used past weather history in determining a more accurate daily weather forecast. We have come a long way in the past 40 years. Have fun with the video

 

 

Anybody else going back and reviewing their first winter after they were born? 69 was a decent winter for me mid Nov, mid Dec, Jan lul(of course) then it rocked in Feb and March. 

 

 

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Like that map. Always thought the 70's sucked except the last couple years but 1970 rocked N&W of Philly,  rain snow line in full effect year in Dec and March.

 

 

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On 1/18/2020 at 7:04 AM, LVwhiteout said:

Albedoman - I grew up in the 50's, and what I remember most is almost every good snow storm had great winds behind it for good drifting. Doesn't happen anymore. I think there are certain times of winter where I have always looked for action. Maybe what you believe in. Mine are Dec 5-9, then Dec 19-24, then Jan 20-25. Feb 12-17, and Mar 5-9th. Seems like something always happens around those times. Kind of strange.By the way , I see you also live in Lower Macungie Twsp.  What are you close to , if you don't mind?

 

Also for Steve - what do you think about this big break being forecasted after about 2 hrs of snow, and then nothing until 3 hrs later?

Do you have a recollection of the winters of 1960-61 and 1966-67 by any chance? Those are two winters that have always fascinated me by looking at the stats.

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7 hours ago, RedSky said:

Anybody else going back and reviewing their first winter after they were born? 69 was a decent winter for me mid Nov, mid Dec, Jan lul(of course) then it rocked in Feb and March. 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Do you have a recollection of the winters of 1960-61 and 1966-67 by any chance? Those are two winters that have always fascinated me by looking at the stats.

I had a picture somewhere of me and one of my sisters (the other wasn't born yet) after the "blizzard of '66", standing in front of our garage door with the snowsuits and shovels and Yogi Bear boots. :lmao:   Actually it was a slide pic because that was my dad's hobby and shooting on slide film allowed him to have color "photos" back in the '50s & '60s when regular consumer pics were generally only B&W (he had boxes and boxes of slides and we had been slowly converting them).

Mt. Holly described it here (the hot links don't work so have to scroll down) - https://www.weather.gov/phi/hist_phi

Quote

...1966...
12.7" of snow fell at PHL, beginning on the 24th and ending on the 25th. 12.4" fell on
the 24th, and the 12" measured on the morning of the 25th is the deepest Christmas
Day snow pack ever. This memorable White Christmas broke the old record of 6.0"on
the ground in 1912. There was heavy drifting of the snow, and much thunder and
lightning accompanied the storm. (PHL)

Article about that nor'easter - https://weatherworksinc.com/news/1966-christmas-snowstorm

The snows before that year back to when I was born in the early '60s, were mostly the usual nickel & dimes.

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2 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

I had a picture somewhere of me and one of my sisters (the other wasn't born yet) after the "blizzard of '66, standing in front of our garage door with the snowsuits and shovels and Yogi Bear boots. :lmao:   Actually it was a slide pic because that was my dad's hobby and shooting on slide film allowed him to have color "photos" back in the '50s & '60s when regular consumer pics were generally only B&W (he had boxes and boxes of slides and we had been slowly converting them).

Mt. Holly described it here (the hot links don't work so have to scroll down) - https://www.weather.gov/phi/hist_phi

Article about that nor'easter - https://weatherworksinc.com/news/1966-christmas-snowstorm

The snows before that year back to when I was born in the early '60s, were mostly the usual nickel & dimes.

That Christmas 1966 storm was the storm that I heard the most stories about from my parents and grandparents when I was growing up. My parents were relative newlyweds that Christmas, and had gone over to my dad's parents house on Christmas Eve. They ended up spending the night because the snow was so heavy and the roads were so bad. My mom's father, not ever giving in, and being determined that he was not going to miss a Christmas with his new family, dug his car out, and made the drive across town on nearly unplowed and impassable roads to pick them up to bring him to his house.

It took quite awhile, but he succeeded in his mission.

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27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That Christmas 1966 storm was the storm that I heard the most stories about from my parents and grandparents when I was growing up. My parents were relative newlyweds that Christmas, and had gone over to my dad's parents house on Christmas Eve. They ended up spending the night because the snow was so heavy and the roads were so bad. My mom's father, not ever giving in, and being determined that he was not going to miss a Christmas with his new family, dug his car out, and made the drive across town on nearly unplowed and impassable roads to pick them up to bring him to his house.

It took quite awhile, but he succeeded in his mission.

And to think that 1996 produced almost 3 times as much. :lol:  I remember everyone had chains and snow tires (of course that was before the "all season" type tires too).  Always had that twice-yearly ritual of putting on and then taking off the snow tires.

The irony of 1966 was that summer, the east coast experienced a heatwave where many all-time high records were shattered and here in Philly, the temps tied the all-time high for the date (at the time) of 104 when that happened July 3 -  https://www.weather.gov/phi/hist_phi

Quote

...1966...
The NE US was in the midst of a sweltering heat wave. The temperature at PHL
reached 104 degrees. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Hartford, CT, 105 degrees
at ABE, and 107 degrees at LaGuardia Airport in NYC established all-time records
for those locations. The 104 degrees at PHL tied the monthly record high last set on
Jul 10, 1936, and are the highest Jul readings since official records began in 1870.
(L)(PHL)(TWC)

I remember that some friends of my parents had a cottage in N. Cape May and we spent a couple weeks there for vacation during that hot summer (I think in August).

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

And to think that 1996 produced almost 3 times as much. :lol:  I remember everyone had chains and snow tires (of course that was before the "all season" type tires too).  Always had that twice-yearly ritual of putting on and then taking off the snow tires.

The irony of 1966 was that summer, the east coast experienced a heatwave where many all-time high records were shattered and here in Philly, the temps tied the all-time high for the date (at the time) of 104 when that happened July 3 -  https://www.weather.gov/phi/hist_phi

I remember that some friends of my parents had a cottage in N. Cape May and we spent a couple weeks there for vacation during that hot summer (I think in August).

I was born two years later so I don't remember that heatwave, or the Christmas snow, but I do remember my dad doing the snow tire ritual well into the 1970's. Back then, as well as the tire issue, was that nearly every car, except for the Olds Toronado, Cadillac Eldorado, and Buick Riviera were rear-wheel drive. And SUV's weren't a "thing" yet, so you at least needed snow tires to get around.

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8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I was born two years later so I don't remember that heatwave, or the Christmas snow, but I do remember my dad doing the snow tire ritual well into the 1970's. Back then, as well as the tire issue, was that nearly every car, except for the Olds Toronado, Cadillac Eldorado, and Buick Riviera were rear-wheel drive. And SUV's weren't a "thing" yet, so you at least needed snow tires to get around.

I grew up in 2 different Ford station wagons (Country Squire and LTD Country Squire) and my mom used to dub the snow tires "the truck tires".  :lol:  We kept them in a basement closet.  And yup, we were swapping them out all the way to the late '70s (right around the time of the blizzard of '78). :mapsnow:

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My parents talk about Christmas 66 quite alot. My mom said 'Santa' forgot an important part of one of my older brother's gifts and she sent my dad out in the blizzard on Christmas Eve to get it at the store. He got stuck a block from the house, abandoned the car, walked to the store which wasnt exactly close, and walked all the way home in the storm. 'Santa' came thru! To this day my dad still laughs while busting her chops about sending him out in that wild weather.

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18 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

 

I had a picture somewhere of me and one of my sisters (the other wasn't born yet) after the "blizzard of '66", standing in front of our garage door with the snowsuits and shovels and Yogi Bear boots. :lmao:   Actually it was a slide pic because that was my dad's hobby and shooting on slide film allowed him to have color "photos" back in the '50s & '60s when regular consumer pics were generally only B&W (he had boxes and boxes of slides and we had been slowly converting them).

Mt. Holly described it here (the hot links don't work so have to scroll down) - https://www.weather.gov/phi/hist_phi

Article about that nor'easter - https://weatherworksinc.com/news/1966-christmas-snowstorm

The snows before that year back to when I was born in the early '60s, were mostly the usual nickel & dimes.

Your  father was a smart man. My grandfather only shot in Kodachrome slides for years and years. The film those slides are made out of high quality materials and hold up better than average. A well composed photograph using that material can have superior resolution than today's digital photography.    

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41 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Your  father was a smart man. My grandfather only shot in Kodachrome slides for years and years. The film those slides are made out of high quality materials and hold up better than average. A well composed photograph using that material can have superior resolution than today's digital photography.    

I know there's a slide of me when I was about 3 or 4 standing in front of the car (I think it was in the fall) with his "slide camera" case on a strap around my neck. In full living color. :lol:

We had started converting some of those slides about 20 years ago and since the film itself was considered a "positive", they had to create negatives from those (at $1 a piece at the time) and then use the negatives to make prints.  Now they have consumer units geared towards slides to illuminate/scan them and save the images digitally to the computer or a USB stick... One of my "projects" for one day.... one day. :whistle:

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On 1/9/2020 at 10:04 AM, Albedoman said:

Its coming around to my thinking.  Notice the TN Valley screamer coming this way on the LR GFS models as well. Fun times ahead. If I was a betting man- a foot of snow on the ground by Groundhogs Day. Where this a pattern change- watch out and this will be a huge pattern change.

ensplume_small.gif

 

This ^^^ MJO forecast was very good. Unfortunately your thinking of this correcting out and I to favorable looks for a pattern change isnt working out. Looks less amplified and never reaches 8 before hitting the COD. Euro says maybe it reemerges in 6/7 which isnt terrible. Should enter a period after Feb 6/7 where we finally achieve some NAO ridging and maybe a brief (longer?) winter pattern. Not over yet, but the MJO correction was a fail.

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member.gif

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Listen you guys, and a no you don,t want to hear from an old fart, but I don't think the pattern looks all that bad. It ain't gonna snow every 5 days. NOT Lately. But things are good or marginal and lets see what we get . This weekend is a good   example. I think guys like Steve and Paul have a pretty good watch for us : and their are others. (thank You)  Things could turn when models even don't predict it. Being born in the 50"s I always said weather always has a way to average itself out. Lets hope Feb is this years month. It could definitely happen! I've seen it before when you least expect it! Trust me, I am not ready to mow grass! Thanks guys!

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 The MJO never did die in 6 but floundered in 7/8 to the COD . I stated this on Jan 6.

this is what I posted  a few days ago to my facebook site: =====  after looking at this evenings LR weather models, I am not going to officially kill off winter but it appears to be dying a slow death. The minor snow event tonight and the spittle of snow tomorrow will be a distant memory by next weekend with all of the forecasted rain and highs near 50 degrees. There is real good chance that if we do get a major weather pattern turn around by Valentines Day, this winter will under 10 inches of snow for the LV. This lack of snow cover for sufficient ground water recharge could lead to drought conditions into late spring. I feel for the ski resorts and the contractors who rely on snow removal for their income but its going to get worse before it gets any better. The temps will warm up above freezing for highs by Friday and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Whats even worse is that this warmth goes all the way to the Great Lakes and upper midwest and Lake Erie may not even freeze over this year.

 

My current thoughts: MJO will reemerge out of the COD just before  Valentines Day heading for 7/8. Thats when the tracking of potential storm fun begins. Thats what I meant when I said the parade of Miller A's show up on the models. Until then, we will be constantly tracking this threading the needle storm crap until we finally get a hit. The people below the fall line will see nada unless we get an actual  "thread the needle" storm event. The LV- wintry mix will continue to define this winter. My initial  LR groundhogs day forecast from several weeks ago for nearly a  foot of snow on the ground in the LV - I am still holding onto that with the hopes that one of the thread the need LP systems sits near the bench mark long enough to feed us some decent moisture for snow development and that dynamic cooling dumps aids in the creation of wet heavy snow on us. Without both of these conditions t the same time, it does not look hopeful for  at least a normal winter snowfall for E. PA.

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Just now, Albedoman said:

 The MJO never did die in 6 but floundered in 7/8 to the COD . I stated this on Jan 6.

this is what I posted  a few days ago to my facebook site: =====  after looking at this evenings LR weather models, I am not going to officially kill off winter but it appears to be dying a slow death. The minor snow event tonight and the spittle of snow tomorrow will be a distant memory by next weekend with all of the forecasted rain and highs near 50 degrees. There is real good chance that if we do get a major weather pattern turn around by Valentines Day, this winter will under 10 inches of snow for the LV. This lack of snow cover for sufficient ground water recharge could lead to drought conditions into late spring. I feel for the ski resorts and the contractors who rely on snow removal for their income but its going to get worse before it gets any better. The temps will warm up above freezing for highs by Friday and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Whats even worse is that this warmth goes all the way to the Great Lakes and upper midwest and Lake Erie may not even freeze over this year.

 

My current thoughts: MJO will reemerge out of the COD just before  Valentines Day heading for 7/8. Thats when the tracking of potential storm fun begins. Thats what I meant when I said the parade of Miller A's show up on the models. Until then, we will be constantly tracking this threading the needle storm crap until we finally get a hit. The people below the fall line will see nada unless we get an actual  "thread the needle" storm event. The LV- wintry mix will continue to define this winter. My initial  LR groundhogs day forecast from several weeks ago for nearly a  foot of snow on the ground in the LV - I am still holding onto that with the hopes that one of the thread the need LP systems sits near the bench mark long enough to feed us some decent moisture for snow development and that dynamic cooling dumps aids in the creation of wet heavy snow on us. Without both of these conditions t the same time, it does not look hopeful for  at least a normal winter snowfall for E. PA.

 

On 1/6/2020 at 10:52 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all.

 

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On 1/6/2020 at 10:26 AM, Albedoman said:

There will be a time  where part of it will be in the 7/8 near the COD. Its this pattern change near 7/8 where the MIller A's will pop. 40 + years of weather watching is telling me this. The GOM will open up for business for a short time.

 

Isnt this where we are now ie 7 headed towards low amplitude 8 near COD? 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Isnt this where we are now ie 7 headed towards low amplitude 8 near COD? 

1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

 The MJO never did die in 6 but floundered in 7/8 to the COD . I stated this on Jan 6.

this is what I posted  a few days ago to my facebook site: =====  after looking at this evenings LR weather models, I am not going to officially kill off winter but it appears to be dying a slow death. The minor snow event tonight and the spittle of snow tomorrow will be a distant memory by next weekend with all of the forecasted rain and highs near 50 degrees. There is real good chance that if we do get a major weather pattern turn around by Valentines Day, this winter will under 10 inches of snow for the LV. This lack of snow cover for sufficient ground water recharge could lead to drought conditions into late spring. I feel for the ski resorts and the contractors who rely on snow removal for their income but its going to get worse before it gets any better. The temps will warm up above freezing for highs by Friday and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Whats even worse is that this warmth goes all the way to the Great Lakes and upper midwest and Lake Erie may not even freeze over this year.

 

My current thoughts: MJO will reemerge out of the COD just before  Valentines Day heading for 7/8. Thats when the tracking of potential storm fun begins. Thats what I meant when I said the parade of Miller A's show up on the models. Until then, we will be constantly tracking this threading the needle storm crap until we finally get a hit. The people below the fall line will see nada unless we get an actual  "thread the needle" storm event. The LV- wintry mix will continue to define this winter. My initial  LR groundhogs day forecast from several weeks ago for nearly a  foot of snow on the ground in the LV - I am still holding onto that with the hopes that one of the thread the need LP systems sits near the bench mark long enough to feed us some decent moisture for snow development and that dynamic cooling dumps aids in the creation of wet heavy snow on us. Without both of these conditions t the same time, it does not look hopeful for  at least a normal winter snowfall for E. PA.

 

On 1/6/2020 at 10:52 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all.

yes we are close and I will agree with that but the better chances of Miller A's formations usually start popping a week or so later once we get to that end of that COD point as the subtropical jet tends to open for business. I will try to remember  to my past weather experiences in this situation and say if I had to pick an analog year, it would be 1994-95 as further described from this NYC site: More good weather historical info here.  https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html  The date and amount of snow tend to match up pretty well to this winter thus far. Waiting for the big one in the next few weeks. 

WINTER OF 1994-95

Feb. 4, 1995 - Only 11.8" of snow fell during this winter and almost all of it fell today as 10.8" of heavy, wet snow fell furiously on a Saturday morning (close to three inches fell between 6-7AM) before changing over to rain at around 9AM.  Then the coldest air of the winter moved in overnight, flash-freezing the slush.

 

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7 hours ago, Albedoman said:

The temps will warm up above freezing for highs by Friday and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Whats even worse is that this warmth goes all the way to the Great Lakes and upper midwest and Lake Erie may not even freeze over this year.

 

 

wow,  this was just posted in the PA forum. I guess I hit the mark about Lake Erie and the analog year. 

50af7e2bfe883a6bf032b6f5d15a59fb.jpg

 

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fwiw...

AccuWx still likes the idea of colder air working its way east in Feb with the possibility of snow chances for the east coast.

We'll see...

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2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

fwiw...

AccuWx still likes the idea of colder air working its way east in Feb with the possibility of snow chances for the east coast.

We'll see...

What a concept...

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13 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

RIP Kobe. Philly's own and one of the GOAT. Unbelievable and so sad.

They are saying that the area was socked in with fog at the time and that it was so bad that the police had grounded their own copters. Just horrible! :cry:

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Even though he didn't play here, I have the same feeling I did when I heard the news about Pelle Lindbergh and Jerome Brown. :cry:

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Not sure how many on here from Berks or LV watch 69 news weather, but the new guy Dan Skelton has got to be the worst I've ever watched. Last night he more or less proclaimed winter was over and February will be just as mild as January, that might be true when all as is said and done but with 2 more months to go that's a pretty bold statement not to mention he doesn't give any reasoning why. He also said the storm this weekend will go out to sea and not affect us, again pretty bold statement with 5 days to go. seems 69 news has gone down hill the last couple of years. 

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Talk about bad, How about David Murphy of 6 ABC. I lost all credibility in him years ago when he stated his neighbor had a truck with a snow shovel attached to the front. Really Dave! He is Mister Anti Winter if I ever seen it. I will take Chris Sowers over him all week long.

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14 minutes ago, wxradio said:

Talk about bad, How about David Murphy of 6 ABC. I lost all credibility in him years ago when he stated his neighbor had a truck with a snow shovel attached to the front. Really Dave! He is Mister Anti Winter if I ever seen it. I will take Chris Sowers over him all week long.

I think most news outlets these days are pressed for time so they give the basics and think the general public need it simplified. I remember back in the late 80's Herb Clark actually showing folks what was happening and why, even Hurricane giving details not so long ago and Bolaris well just leave him out of the conversation. But yeah weather personalities aren't what they used to be

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4 hours ago, penndotguy said:

Not sure how many on here from Berks or LV watch 69 news weather, but the new guy Dan Skelton has got to be the worst I've ever watched. Last night he more or less proclaimed winter was over and February will be just as mild as January, that might be true when all as is said and done but with 2 more months to go that's a pretty bold statement not to mention he doesn't give any reasoning why. He also said the storm this weekend will go out to sea and not affect us, again pretty bold statement with 5 days to go. seems 69 news has gone down hill the last couple of years. 

 I absolutely agree with this synopsis. A bunch of rookies with no meteorological  educational background. My cat does a better job then they do. They are paid to read the scripts from "Accuwrong"  --thats it.  Every time  I  see that dam commercial publicizing that "schools look to be closed with the fake and over exited kids on dope, I just want to scream.

 

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49 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

 I absolutely agree with this synopsis. A bunch of rookies with no meteorological  educational background. My cat does a better job then they do. They are paid to read the scripts from "Accuwrong"  --thats it.  Every time  I  see that dam commercial publicizing that "schools look to be closed with the fake and over exited kids on dope, I just want to scream.

 

I really miss Ed Hannah, not sure what ever happened to him but he was pretty good, That woman and Skelton annoy the hell out of me, Clayton is ok but yeah not real weather personalities if ya ask me. 

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