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Hoosier

Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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For some reason I feel pretty good about  our chances in the sub for wintry threats  as we head towards Christmas. Our Dec track record of late isn't stellar though.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Lock it in, folks.  Lock it in.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh204-228.thumb.gif.8fc54d4d7863de4f04e755547da06356.gif

Haha! It's probably in fantasy land. BUT, the Euro had a similar output and there's been some talk of cold around the 10th so it might be hinting at something.

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So wxbell revised their winter forecast to go slightly colder in Dec and significantly colder in Feb.   Main reasoning is an almost exact match to 2013/14, (I can literally hear the drool hitting the floor in here), and  2002/03 SST.    Of course the chaos factor always seems to b*tch slap down even the best matching analogs.  

Winter forecasts are all over the place this year.  Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns).   Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Winter forecasts are all over the place this year.  Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns).   Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

I think this may be due to not having a stronger ENSO signal.  When it's a stronger Nino or Nina, people can sort of play the odds.  Hanging around neutral is a different ball game.   

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ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Not sure if anyone around here is involved over on 33 and rain, but there's been a decent amount of talk about the standing wave not allowing the MJO enter warmer stages. Even a few are saying it could jump to p8 in the very long range. So, with some decent blocking the 2nd half of Dec could be lots of fun.

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1 hour ago, Gino27 said:

 

 

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

Not sure if anyone around here is involved over on 33 and rain, but there's been a decent amount of talk about the standing wave not allowing the MJO enter warmer stages. Even a few are saying it could jump to p8 in the very long range. So, with some decent blocking the 2nd half of Dec could be lots of fun.

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region.

ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region.

ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.

Yes, of course. However, it is a big improvement from previous outputs that parked us in the much warmer phases (4, 5, and 6) for as far the eye can see.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Op GFS is basically going full blast with arctic outbreak next week.  Doesn't have a whole lot of ensemble support though.

Euro kinda hops on board too.

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Euro kinda hops on board too.
Euro ensemble also with a chilly and active look at h5 out out beyond the early to mid week cold shot next week.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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poor sampling. pretty clear the PAC ull is creating a temporary ridge. That isn't going to create a arctic transport and it is a temporary feature. The UKMET looks much more realistic with the general pattern at 144 than all the other models. We had this issue with the southwest ull as well in last November. Why the ECMWF for example thinks that ridging is that strong and is going to persist upstream makes no sense.

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20 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Indian summer

I mean, it has been warmer than average recently, but this is kind of cheap for Indian summer :scooter:.  Departures like this are pretty useless at this time of year -- still cool

 

7dTDeptMRCC.thumb.png.817b10d4c89091acd69169f5292f7a67.png

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