Gino27 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region. ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time. Yes, of course. However, it is a big improvement from previous outputs that parked us in the much warmer phases (4, 5, and 6) for as far the eye can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 Op GFS is basically going full blast with arctic outbreak next week. Doesn't have a whole lot of ensemble support though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: Op GFS is basically going full blast with arctic outbreak next week. Doesn't have a whole lot of ensemble support though. Euro kinda hops on board too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Euro kinda hops on board too.Euro ensemble also with a chilly and active look at h5 out out beyond the early to mid week cold shot next week. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Euro drumming up an OHV special 12-13th ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 things seem a bit more optimistic today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 GFS still pretty chilly next week, though the last couple runs are dropping it in farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Lol joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 Never change dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Lol joe Indian summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 I thought Angry was gonna be all in on the arctic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 3, 2019 Author Share Posted December 3, 2019 20 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Indian summer I mean, it has been warmer than average recently, but this is kind of cheap for Indian summer . Departures like this are pretty useless at this time of year -- still cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Why is Keweenaw county omitted from that map, Hoosier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Looks pretty chilly up here the middle of next week. Transient cold however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 12z GFS the new hotness for next week here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 lol joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: lol joe His reply, "It’s two days of cold, then back to avg/mild" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 And it's only four days into December!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 We really need some snow threats around here, and fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 49 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: We really need some snow threats around here, and fast! Well, 18z GFS still looks decent next week. Euro is hanging back a lot of energy in the southwest which is what leads to its tamer and farther north solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Well, 18z GFS still looks decent next week. Euro is hanging back a lot of energy in the southwest which is what leads to its tamer and farther north solution. garbage model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: garbage model It still has it's known biases. But, at least they're a known quantity, lol. It should be catching on any day now. I like the GEFS current projection. Need a little slower, a little more phasing, and a little less cutting of the SLP and I'll be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Chicago officially jinxed - TWC likes you for the Mon-Tue storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 what's TWC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Baum said: what's TWC? R.I.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Baum said: what's TWC? Still better than EC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 13 hours ago, DAFF said: Still better than EC... True dat, sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2019 Author Share Posted December 5, 2019 Too much energy left in the southwest = more northern stream dominance = crappier system overall with snow displaced farther north. The GFS does not hang it back as much but has slowed enough since yesterday to still sort of screw things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 This is maybe not what you want to see if you are from Minnesota or Wisconsin, but the 12z GFS has -23 degrees at the Twin Cities at hour 144 (December 11th), and the 00z Euro has -19 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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