Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,110
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elarey7
    Newest Member
    Elarey7
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


Recommended Posts

hey guys,so  i live in the city of oswego and out of the nws buffalo AFD the sentence what caught my eye was "with a single plume of heavy snow likely across Oswego county".. with that said how much you think we are talking about..intensity wise of the band and the duration and snowfall amounts?...im assuming there will be a wnw or westerly component to the wind?? the city of oswego usually does will when the winds are lighter being we are right on the lake..some lake effect strorms tend to blow right over us..also was seeing if you guys could post an image or two of the models lake effect run for tuesday evening after the synoptic storm passes..thanks guys

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Just so we know, the NWS is talking about southern Oswego county not the tug.."SE of the lake" Redfield only 30% chance of snow on Tuesday night.. Fulton 80%..

Bring it. Of course, were this in 24 hrs vs 3 days out, I'd be a bit excited.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Winds over the Lake are definitely backing and I wouldn't be surprised if a decent band develops on a Westerly flow. It should then continue to back eventually ending up WSWerly towards Watertown and as the HP continues to move over us it should squash it completely but this time of yr, knows as the Lake has a mind of its own, lol!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nam and gfs both coming in weaker and maybe slightly East. Just a meh blob of low pressure scooting off to our S and E and not that impressive of a precious shield when it’s so weak. Looking more like a 3-5” type event to me which is still a bonus this early in the season but  think you can pretty much count out the  warning criteria snows. We’ll see what the Euro says but weaker has definitely been the trend the last few runs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Nam and gfs both coming in weaker and maybe slightly East. Just a meh blob of low pressure scooting off to our S and E and not that impressive of a precious shield when it’s so weak. Looking more like a 3-5” type event to me which is still a bonus this early in the season but  think you can pretty much count out the  warning criteria snows. We’ll see what the Euro says but weaker has definitely been the trend the last few runs. 

I think we were always looking at 4 to 7 with higher amounts on the ridges and North and east of buffalo due to enhancement from Ontario. The ensembles still show about .4" to .9" area wide. The operational models will always hiccup. Now, I was just perusing the Mid Atlantic forum on their Oct Nov long term discussion. Couple of posters who I know are legit have discussed at great length with the help of other Mets a -NAO establishing itself towards Thanksgiving and lasting into early December. The MJO certainly agrees on its end according to the CPC and mentions, however, that the long range (think CFS etc) models disagree. If this holds true and comes to fruition then later next week's "warm up" to slightly below November averages will be a re-loading period and retrograding lows were discussed. I know if that happens there will be some chasing going on.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

I'm thinking if solutions converge by Sunday12z and Mon 00z runs it will make me a believer. Pretty much the only thing we'll see on saturday are take-the-football-away solutions and other such badness.

I mean the storm starts early Monday morning. I think we can lock something in sooner than 6 hours out. Haha. 

I thought the 0z runs tonight were encouraging for a good 4-8 inch type storm; which is a very respectable hit for mid November. Good enough for me at least.  Seems like a somewhat long duration event with nam and gfs hinting at a particularly nice inverted trough right over WNY overnight into Tuesday which would keep us in the snow longer  

I dunno, I’m feeling Optimistic for once. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I mean the storm starts early Monday morning. I think we can lock something in sooner than 6 hours out. Haha. 

I thought the 0z runs tonight were encouraging for a good 4-8 inch type storm; which is a very respectable hit for mid November. Good enough for me at least.  Seems like a somewhat long duration event with nam and gfs hinting at a particularly nice inverted trough right over WNY overnight into Tuesday which would keep us in the snow longer  

I dunno, I’m feeling Optimistic for once. 

00z Euro looks good. 
 

 

BE221D1F-4570-4E2E-A690-C77ECA4F3C21.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s looking like this next snow event will miss us in the northern Catskills, but for now it is a beautiful wintery morning in early November.  6° and about 1.5in of snow making for a classic winter scene outside.  Nearly full moon and clear skies last night made it look almost like daylight!  Kids are going to try sledding when it warms up a little bit.  For now we’re inside watching cartoons by the fire!  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9" without an advisory for Oswego overnight. Was at a buddys poker tournament last night( I won :D), driving home around 3 am there was some nice snow in that band off erie. Visibility was under a mile at times. 

...New York...

...Oswego County...
4 N Central Square           9.0 in    0100 PM 11/08   Trained Spotter
4 NW Constantia              6.5 in    0900 AM 11/08   Broadcast Media
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...