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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread

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24 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

:lol: Ha.  

I was reading some ski forum a few years ago that I think JSpin and you used to post in(maybe still do?) I think JSpin has it linked somewhere on his page,  but anyways there was a guy on there that was blasting JSpin about his snowfall numbers because of his low elevation in relations to some other 1k+spots that don't get as much.  I cant recall the whole exchange, but he basically was calling him a liar and that there was a 0% chance he was getting that much snowfall.  I may be off a bit in my memory, but it was along those lines I think.

Reminds me of Feb. 2017 when some guy from RI noted the 76" depth report from Andover, Maine and drove up there expecting to find  giant snowbanks along the roads.  He also got onto a back road (East B Hill Road) where his GPS didn't work and his gas gauge was low and he had no idea where the road would take him.  He then posted about "fake news" and vilified all things Maine, not realizing that the plow operators tend to push the snow a little farther than they do in RI.  (Also not realizing that an old fashioned paper map can be your friend.)

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49 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Definitely a mid winter feel(sans pumpkins :)) out there with temps mid 20s and on and off snow.

rps20191108_115436.thumb.jpg.87a5ec0854ebeadb71be950a4d7c5d9d.jpg

 

My Jack O Lanterns made it through a good chunk of the winter intact last year. It was pretty funny

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Event totals: 6.9” Snow/0.35” L.E.

We’ve got another resurgence of snowfall taking place this evening as this event continues.  The snowfall was actually more substantial back in town that here at the house, but we’ve still got some flakes coming down with a bit of accumulation.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 4.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.17 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 28.8

Snow Density: 3.5% H2O

Temperature: 26.1 F

Sky:  Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

 

Using the snowfall data set for our site, I recently calculated the average dates for several storm accumulation thresholds, and this is actually on the early side for the first ≥6” storm of the season.  Since we’re still fairly early in November, this is actually on the early side for any storm ≥2”.  The list of mean dates with S.D. for first storms up to the 12” threshold at our site is below for reference:

Storm size:  mean date of first occurrence in season

Trace:  10/21 ± 7 days

Measurable:  10/27 ± 11 days

≥1”:  11/8 ± 15 days

≥2”:  11/24 ± 11 days

≥3”:  11/27 ± 12 days

≥4”:  11/27 ± 12 days

≥6”:  11/29 ± 14 days

≥8”:  12/11 ± 21 days

≥10”:  12/12 ± 21 days

≥12”:  12/31 ± 33 days

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 6.9” Snow/0.35” L.E.

We’ve got another resurgence of snowfall taking place this evening as this event continues.  The snowfall was actually more substantial back in town that here at the house, but we’ve still got some flakes coming down with a bit of accumulation.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 4.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.17 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 28.8

Snow Density: 3.5% H2O

Temperature: 26.1 F

Sky:  Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.0 inches

 

6.9" event total and 6.0" on the ground.... you did better than the base of Mansfield at 1,500ft.  I was estimating 3.5-4" for the base area.

2L8A0526_edited-2.thumb.jpg.4bd15a7b2ac1bfda08e67e6c8f74fd4b.jpg

 

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scary drive through the notch coming back from dinner in North Conway. Still snowing moderately 
We'll be up at the Bernerhof for Thanksgiving. Looks forward to a white today up there... hopefully
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7 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

My temp place is prob about 4-5mi away from @alex and I'm getting 0 upslope :(

It’s such a local thing! I have seen times when there is an inch of fresh snow at my house and 0 at the snowmobile parking lot less than a mile away. 
 

Tonight’s stuff is the super fluffy kind. 2.75” since leaving, 7.5” storm total. Can’t see the stake but it’s probably still at 4” lol, this stuff has no weight

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There''s a fresh inch on my car since I got home from work, but it looks like the sky is breaking to some stars.

Love this discussion...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...Love the snow? Well this long term forecast
is for you, as models are coming into much better agreement compared
to yesterday in regard to the potential for a significant snowfall
across the North Country Monday night through Tuesday. Latest
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all in fairly close agreement with the strength
and track of low pressure developing over the central Appalachians
Monday afternoon and tracking along a stalled frontal boundary
draped across the mid- Atlantic to southeast New England states. Some
minor differences from west to east of the track does complicate the
low level thermal profiles where the GFS and ECMWF show a warm nose
between 925-850mb nudging into southern Vermont Monday night, but
ensembles are slightly cooler. This would support a brief period of
mixed precip across our southern zones, while elsewhere the
soundings support all snow through the event. While early,
indications are for the potential for 6-10" of snow in the lower
elevations when it`s all said and done Tuesday evening. High summits
could make out with a foot or more with upslope lingering into
Tuesday night as well.

Hate the cold? The rest of the long term forecast is not for you,
because behind the snow cold high pressure builds into the region
with strong low/mid level northerly flow ushering in the coldest air
of the season yet with 925/850mb temps in the teens below zero
through Thursday. This supports highs Wednesday only in the 20s with
Tues/Wed night lows in the single digits to teens above zero. Some
reprieve comes though Thursday into Friday as the high shifts east
and southerly winds return. Temps look to warm back to normal with
highs Thu/Fri in the 30s.

&&

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There''s a fresh inch on my car since I got home from work, but it looks like the sky is breaking to some stars.

Love this discussion...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EST Friday...Love the snow? Well this long term forecast
is for you, as models are coming into much better agreement compared
to yesterday in regard to the potential for a significant snowfall
across the North Country Monday night through Tuesday. Latest
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are all in fairly close agreement with the strength
and track of low pressure developing over the central Appalachians
Monday afternoon and tracking along a stalled frontal boundary
draped across the mid- Atlantic to southeast New England states. Some
minor differences from west to east of the track does complicate the
low level thermal profiles where the GFS and ECMWF show a warm nose
between 925-850mb nudging into southern Vermont Monday night, but
ensembles are slightly cooler. This would support a brief period of
mixed precip across our southern zones, while elsewhere the
soundings support all snow through the event. While early,
indications are for the potential for 6-10" of snow in the lower
elevations when it`s all said and done Tuesday evening. High summits
could make out with a foot or more with upslope lingering into
Tuesday night as well.

Hate the cold? The rest of the long term forecast is not for you,
because behind the snow cold high pressure builds into the region
with strong low/mid level northerly flow ushering in the coldest air
of the season yet with 925/850mb temps in the teens below zero
through Thursday. This supports highs Wednesday only in the 20s with
Tues/Wed night lows in the single digits to teens above zero. Some
reprieve comes though Thursday into Friday as the high shifts east
and southerly winds return. Temps look to warm back to normal with
highs Thu/Fri in the 30s.

&&

So now I have my regular fear of the rubber band snapping back and giving us a crappy rest of the cold season piled on top of my fear that there is no possible way we can get 2 winters in a row with snow cover that starts before November 15th and goes all the way. I’m too neurotic And nervous to enjoy this. :(

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Event totals: 7.1” Snow/0.35” L.E.

We’ve mostly cleared out here at the house this morning, so I’d say this event is complete.  It’s certainly not uncommon for us to get events like this in November, but getting one in the first third of the month is notable.

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 13.3 F

Sky:  Mostly Clear

Snow at the stake: 5.5 inches

 

It doesn’t look like there’s going to be much of a break before the next system moves into the area though.  The BTV NWS says that an incoming front begins to affect the area tomorrow, and then it sort of stalls out.  Our graphical point forecast for here in the valley has precipitation moving back in tomorrow, and then hanging around for a while as snow:

09NOV19A.jpg

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This is somewhat impressive for this early in November, MPV went below 32f at 4:00 pm on the 7th and hasn’t been above since. Currently 20f. 

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Spent the afternoon wandering around in the snow with the dog up at the mountain.  With some settling of the snow in today's sunshine and temps near freezing, I found depths of ~3" at the base and ~6" above 2,500ft. 

 

2L8A0608_edited-2.thumb.jpg.1630ba55e301f77a9cb45df7a47a869e.jpg

 

Heading back to the car though, we were treated to a cool sight of the snowmaking plumes along the ridge being back-lit by the setting sun.  The sun was illuminating each plume of snow, so even though those trails are out of view you can tell they've got the guns fired up.

72848464_10103931058030060_8354239774776

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...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY AFTERNOON 

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
with locally higher amounts possible.


* WHERE...Portions of central, northeast and northwest Vermont,
and the Adirondacks of northern New York.


* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

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I saw this morning that the BTV NWS has us under a Winter Storm Watch in association with this next winter storm.  As far as I know, this is the first one of the season around here.  I see that mreaves has some of the watch text posted, and here are the associated maps:

10NOV19A.jpg

10NOV19B.jpg

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18 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

I saw this morning that the BTV NWS has us under a Winter Storm Watch in association with this next winter storm.  As far as I know, this is the first one of the season around here.  I see that mreaves has some of the watch text posted, and here are the associated maps:

10NOV19A.jpg

10NOV19B.jpg

That is a nice way to start off :) Enjoy!

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I visited Bolton yesterday to get in a ski tour and check out the new snow, so I’ll pass along some beta on the snow depths and general conditions.  With the fairly fluffy nature of the snow and based on what I’m seeing at the house, I’m sure there had been some settling since it fell, but here’s the snow depth/elevation profile from the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road up to the local summit areas:

340’:  1-2”

1,000’:  2-3”

1,500’:  3-4”

2,000’:  4-6”

2,500’:  6-7”

3,000’:  7-9”

I was up there around midday, when temperatures were just edging a bit above freezing at our house down in the valley, but above 1,500’, and certainly above 2,000’, temperatures never got above freezing so the snow was all winter consistency.

In terms of the skiing, it was undoubtedly early season, and rock skis would be your best bet if you’re going on anything with substantial pitch.  I actually found the skiing better on the lower half of the mountain because there was a bit of a base there – I think more of the snow down in those elevations was melting on contact with the ground to create that dense layer.  Up higher, the consistency of the snow was more straight fluff from top to bottom.  As is often the case, most water bars had reasonable crossings at least at one point, but a few were dicey and took some extra navigation.  There’s still running water in plenty of spots, and ponding in some flat areas.  On my descent it was obvious that my skis got in contact with at least traces of that moisture, because about halfway down I had to pull out a credit card and spend probably 10 minutes doing a scrape down on the ski bases to really get things back in shape for gliding.

That effort was worth it though, because for the bottom half of my run I was on Lower Turnpike, and that offered what was unquestionably the best skiing of the tour.  The combination of that bit of dense snow that accumulated as some base down in those elevations, plus some skier traffic packing down areas of the new snow as well, clearly created the best subsurfaces I encountered.  On top of that you’ve got the fact that Lower Turnpike is essentially all grassy terrain, and it has a pitch that isn’t really overbearing for the amount of snowpack we’ve got, and it comes together for real winning combination.  Even with some skier traffic, there was still plenty of powder to play around in throughout the trail, so that was a great way to finish off my run.

For anyone heading up, you may still want to hit the summit areas to check things out and get the exercise from a more substantial tour, but if you’re just looking to get out from some quality turns, Lower Turnpike is probably going to get you the most bang for your buck.  It’s one of the designated ascent routes anyway, so there’s a nice skin track and it’s an efficient way to in some nice turns on the new snow.

I’ve got a few images from yesterday, so I’ll try to pass some along when I get a chance to get them off my camera.

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I see that the BTV NWS now has the following headline for the upcoming event on their homepage, and linked from that is an updated snow map with areas of 12-18” projected accumulation shading for some of the higher elevations.

 

Winter Storm Watch in Effect Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday Afternoon for the Adirondacks in New York and portions of northern Vermont

A period of moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches will be possible. A band of heavy snow could develop Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Travel could be very difficult, especially within the band of heavy snow.

10NOV19C.jpg

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I see that the BTV NWS now has the following headline for the upcoming event on their homepage, and linked from that is an updated snow map with areas of 12-18” projected accumulation shading for some of the higher elevations.

 

Winter Storm Watch in Effect Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday Afternoon for the Adirondacks in New York and portions of northern Vermont

A period of moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Snowfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches will be possible. A band of heavy snow could develop Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. Travel could be very difficult, especially within the band of heavy snow.

10NOV19C.jpg&key=72354aeb9816326e27f50141cd14eb286736464641a89289e5b17fdda9aff1fd

Enjoy the snow. Side note, I can't see many of the images lately. They are broken links. Not sure if it's a Tapatalk problem or board issue

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I see that the BTV NWS now has the following

Enjoy the snow. Side note, I can't see many of the images lately. They are broken links. Not sure if it's a Tapatalk problem or board issue

Interesting.  I see everything.  Lava you are the only one where if I quote you, the message you quoted also shows up in my post.

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4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:
Interesting.  I see everything.

Are you using Tapatalk?

Ahh no, just iPhone normal web based.

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